歐元兌美元走軟

The euro has lost 5.1 percent versus the dollar over the past month. And a spate of poor eurozone economic data Friday further eroded its value, signaling a grim economic outlook for the European economy in 2012.

過去一個月，歐元對美元匯率下跌了5.1%。星期五出爐的歐元區糟糕的經濟數據進一步令歐元貶值，顯示2012年歐洲經濟前景黯淡。

At 13 years old, the euro is barely a teenager. But, so far, it has had an eventful life.

問世13年的歐元還只不過是年輕貨幣。但迄今爲止，歐元已經歷了大起大落。

At its inception, Germany, the currency zone’s biggest economy, was still digesting the huge costs of incorporating East Germany, and there were wider concerns about whether such an ambitious project of a common currency would even work.

歐元問世初期，歐元區最大的經濟體德國還在消化因合併東德而帶給它的鉅額成本。當時存在更廣泛的擔心，即這樣一個雄心勃勃的共同貨幣體制是否能夠運轉。

Despite concerns, it soon matched the dollar one for one. Then shot past it. Even after the financial crisis in 2007 - and a recession soon after - it held its value.

儘管存在擔憂，歐元對美元匯率很快達到1比1，之後還突破了1比1。就算是在2007年金融危機以及隨後出現經濟衰退之後，歐元幣值依然穩定。

But now a second eurozone recession is back and the markets have turned against it. Friday it hit a 16-month low against the dollar.

但是現在，歐元區第二次陷入衰退，市場已經轉而回避歐元。星期五，歐元對美元匯率創下16個月以來的最低點。

Jeremy Stretch a London-based currency strategist for the Canadian Bank CIBC, explains the weaknesses analysts identified several years ago are finally surfacing.

加拿大帝國商業銀行(CIBC)駐倫敦的貨幣策略師傑瑞米·斯特萊齊解釋說，分析人士幾年前指出的歐元弱點終於浮出水面。

"I think those flaws were essentially being masked by the process of broader economic growth and it’s now only when we see a downturn that we haven’t seen in the majority of peoples' lifetimes that’s really underlined the sort of structural failings within the Eurozone project. It was a process designed by politicians and that’s part of the inherent flaw. The politicians didn’t design the process in the optimal way," he said.

斯特萊齊說：“我認爲，那些缺陷是被更廣泛的經濟增長所掩蓋了。而現在，只有當我們看到人們一生中大部分時間未曾見過的經濟下行時，才真正凸顯出歐元區的這種結構弱點。這是政治家們設計的一種架構，這是它與生俱來的缺陷的一部分。政治家們沒有以最理想的方式來設計這種架構。”

The story may not just be euro weakness, but dollar strength. U.S. economic statistics were depressed until fall 2011 - with high unemployment, huge and growing government debt, and a housing market still yet to recover.

問題可能並不只在於歐元的弱勢，還在於美元的強勢。在2011年秋季之前，美國經濟統計數據令人沮喪，高失業率、日益膨脹的鉅額政府債務，還有房地產市場仍未復甦。But now there are signs of improvement.

但是現在出現了改善的跡象。

On Friday the U.S. reported that it created 200,000 jobs in December, the sixth month in a row of gains. The unemployment rate is now 8.5 percent. It was 10.1 percent just over two years ago. Unlike the eurozone, the U.S. isn’t predicted to fall back into recession in 2012.

美國星期五報告說，12月份美國經濟創造了20萬個就業崗位，這是連續第6個月出現淨增長。目前的失業率爲8.5%。兩年多前失業率還高居10.1%。與歐元區不同的是，美國並未預計2012年經濟會再度陷入衰退。

"Going back to the start of the crisis, the U.S. was the first economy to really suffer the depths of the downturn and I think the U.S. were relatively early in terms of some of the procedural measures they put in place to try to alleviate that - in terms of cutting interest rates to effectively zero and putting in fairly sizeable injections of capital into the banking system and into the economy at large," Stretch stated. "So in essence there is an element of first in, first out.”

加拿大帝國商業銀行的傑瑞米·斯泰齊說：“回顧此次危機開始的時候，美國是第一個真正遭受經濟嚴重下行的經濟體。我認爲美國是相對較早採取程序性措施以緩解經濟下行的經濟體。這些措施包括將利率降至實際爲零的水平，向銀行系統和經濟注入相當規模的資本。因此就體現了這樣因素，就是第一個陷入，也會第一個走出。”

And looking ahead into 2012, the downsides all look to be on the eurozone. Greece may default. France could lose its AAA credit rating. Some of its biggest banks could need government bail outs. Where the euro enters its 14th year in 2013, who knows what it’ll be worth.

展望2012年，呈消極趨勢的看來都在歐元區。希臘可能對其債務違約。法國可能喪失AAA的信用評級。一些最大的銀行可能需要政府救助。當2013年歐元進入它的第14個年頭時，誰知道歐元還將價值幾何？