中國央行抵制"大規模刺激"呼聲

Even as Japan and the EU embark on fresh rounds of quantitative easing to ward off deflation, the People’s Bank of China is holding the line against major stimulus.

就在日本和歐盟(EU)推出新一輪量化寬鬆政策以防範通縮之際，中國央行(PBoC)卻在與大規模刺激劃清界限。

China’s central bank is resisting a rising chorus appealing for more aggressive easing to arrest a slowdown in the economy. Instead it is taking a gritted-teeth approach that accepts short-term pain as the price of structural reform that will support sustainable long-term growth.

中國央行正抵制日益高漲的要求推出更大規模寬鬆政策（以遏制經濟增速放緩）的呼聲，反而正咬緊牙關，將短期痛苦視爲實施結構性改革要付出的代價，這一改革將支撐長期可持續增長。

At first glance calls for easing in China appear justified.

乍一看，中國要求寬鬆政策的呼聲是合理的。

Consumer price inflation remained mired near a five-year low in October, while the government’s purchasing managers’ index hit a five-month low. That followed growth in economic output in the third quarter that was the slowest since the financial crisis.

中國10月消費者物價通脹(CPI)指數徘徊在5年低點附近，同時中國政府的採購經理人指數(PMI)觸及5個月低點。此前，今年第三季度，中國經濟產出創下自金融危機以來的最慢增速。

Yet a year after the Communist party revealed a landmark economic reform blueprint, the PBoC wants to avoid steps that would be viewed as undermining the effort to reduce the economy’s reliance on debt and investment.

然而，在中國共產黨提出里程碑式的經濟改革藍圖一年後，中國正努力降低其經濟對債務和投資的依賴，中國央行希望其舉措不會被視爲會破壞這一努力。

“The central bank has become wary of using its traditional monetary tools like Cuts in the required reserve ratio and benchmark interest rates. They’ve basically shelved them,” says Wang Yingfeng, investment director at Shanghai Yaozhi Asset Management, which runs a bond fund.

上海耀之資產管理中心(Shanghai Yaozhi Asset Management)投資總監王影峯表示：“央行對利用降低存款準備金率和基準利率等傳統貨幣工具感到擔憂。他們基本上沒有考慮這些舉措。”該公司管理着一隻債券基金。

The shifting approach is in part a matter of style over substance.

這種戰略的變化從一定程度上來講是形式大過實質。

Even as it held off on a reserve ratio cut, in September and October the PBoC injected Rmb770bn ($125bn) into the banking system via a new monetary policy tool called the Medium-term Lending Facility. That is more money than would have entered the system through a 0.5 percentage-point RRR cut, traditionally the central bank’s main tool for managing the money supply.

在中國央行暫停降準之際，今年9月和10月，中國央行通過一個名爲中期借貸便利(Medium-term Lending Facility，MLF)的新貨幣政策工具向銀行業體系注入7700億元人民幣(合1250億美元)。這一規模超過了將存款準備金率下調0.5個百分點進入銀行業體系的資金規模。降準一直是中國央行管理貨幣供應的主要工具。

But the low-key nature of these fund injections – which went unannounced at the time – allows the central bank to avoid sending a strong easing signal.

但低調的注資舉動（當時沒有宣佈）使中國央行得以避免傳遞強有力的寬鬆信號。

“The PBoC can lower actual market rates by injecting liquidity without cutting bank benchmark rates,” Lu Ting, chief China economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, wrote in a note last week. “Cutting rates is perceived as anti-reform and kind of politically incorrect.”

“中國央行可以在不降低基準利率的情況下，通過注入流動性下調實際市場利率，”美國銀行-美林(Bank of America-Merrill Lynch)首席中國經濟學家陸挺上週在一份報告中寫道，“降息會被視爲與改革相悖，政治不正確。”

Beyond appearances, the use of MLF also gives the PBoC increased flexibility compared to traditional tools.

表象之外，利用中期借貸便利（MLF）還增加了中國央行的靈活性（相對於傳統工具而言）。

An RRR cut is viewed as a stronger easing measure in part because it is permanent, unless the PBOC actively reverses it. By contrast, the MLF provides three-month loans to commercial banks. If the PBoC declines to roll the loans over on maturity, the newly created money automatically disappears.

降準之所以被視爲更強有力的寬鬆信號，部分原因是此舉是永久性的，除非中國央行主動提高這一比率。相比之下，“中期借貸便利”向商業銀行提供了3個月期的貸款。如果央行拒絕在貸款到期後展期，那麼這些新制造的貨幣就自動消失了。

Still, many economists insist a full-fledged rate cut is necessary, noting that increased liquidity in financial markets has failed to lower borrowing costs in the real economy, especially for smaller companies.

然而，很多經濟學家堅稱，全面降息是必要的，他們指出，金融市場流動性增加未能降低實體經濟的借款利率，特別是對於較小企業而言。

“The recent fall in yields has mainly been reflected in the bond and stock markets. But in the real economy a lot of companies aren’t able to sell bonds. They still rely on bank financing. And banks are wary of risks and charging a premium on loans,” says Cao Yang, macroeconomic analyst at Shanghai Pudong Development Bank.

上海浦東發展銀行(Shanghai Pudong Development Bank)宏觀經濟分析師曹陽表示：“最近收益率下跌主要反映在債券和股票市場上。但在實體經濟，很多企業無法發售債券。它們仍依賴銀行融資。銀行擔心風險，對貸款收取更高費用。”

Because bank deposit rates in China remain subject to a mandatory ceiling, a cut in benchmark deposit rates would lower banks’ cost of funding. In theory, that should guide loan rates lower.

由於中國銀行存款利率有上限限制，降低基準存款利率將降低銀行融資成本。從理論上來說，這應會引導貸款利率下滑。

Yet a slowing and economy and rising defaults have made banks cautious about lending to smaller firms, except at high rates.

然而，經濟放緩和違約數量增加讓銀行對借貸給較小企業持謹慎態度，除非是高利率貸款。

The rising risk premium is visible even in the bond market, where yields on highly rated paper have fallen because of PBoC cash injections, while spreads against lower-rated bonds have risen.

日益上升的風險溢價甚至在債券市場也很明顯，由於央行注資，高評級的債券收益率一直下滑，其與評級較低的債券的利差一直上升。

In this environment, a rate cut risks channelling even more funds to larger borrowers who are already flush with cash, while small companies still struggle to access finance.

在這種環境下，降息可能會讓更多資金流向規模較大、資金已然充沛的借款者，而小企業仍難以獲得融資。

“The loan market is fractured,” says Mr Wang. “Banks have a lot of money and they want to lend it, but only to companies they think are safe. But these companies don’t need money. Meanwhile, other companies really need funds can’t get them.”

“貸款市場出現分化，”王影峯表示，“銀行擁有大量資金，它們希望放貸，但只貸款給那些它們認爲安全的企業。但這些企業不需要資金。與此同時，其他真正需要資金的企業卻無法獲得資金。”