黃金9月終結,華爾街迎來寒流

Wall Street's big year of deal-making may have ended early — after peaking on the morning of Sept. 19.

在9月19日上午達到巔峯之後，華爾街在撮合交易方面斬獲頗豐的一年或許已經提早結束了。

It was then that the Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba went public with a valuation of more than $168 billion. Eight minutes later, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index hit an all-time high. Earlier that week, several big acquisitions were announced.

那一天，中國電子商務巨頭阿里巴巴(Alibaba)上市，其市值超過1680億美元（約合1萬億元人民幣）。八分鐘後，標準普爾500指數(Standard & Poor's 500)創下歷史新高。在同一周的早些時候，華爾街還宣佈了另外幾項重大併購。

Now, less than a month later, September's exuberance feels like a distant memory.

如今，過了不到一個月的時間，9月的繁盛景象彷彿已經成了遙遠的回憶。

The S.&P. 500 has fallen more than 7 percent. Alibaba still trades above its offer price, but other initial public offerings have been shelved for now. Merger and acquisition announcements have slowed.

標普500指數下挫超過7%。阿里巴巴的股價仍然高於發行價，但其他企業首次公開募股(IPO)的計劃目前已被擱置。併購交易的宣佈也不再那麼頻繁。

"If we get a lot more volatility and there's a significant correction, there's a real risk that deals could get pulled," said Mark G. Shafir, co-head of global mergers and acquisitions at Citigroup.

花旗集團(Citigroup)全球併購業務聯席主管馬克·G·沙菲爾 (Mark G. Shafir)說，“如果出現了幅度大得多的波動，之後又有顯著的調整，那麼的確會有交易受到抑制的切實風險。”

All year, the stock markets have advanced, initial public offerings have boomed, and mergers and acquisitions have roared back to their highest levels since the financial crisis.

在這一年中，股市行情不斷上漲，IPO活躍，併購交易回升至金融危機以來的最高水平。

The more than $1.3 trillion in announced mergers and acquisitions so far this year in the United States is the highest amount on record, according to Dealogic, fueled by megadeals like Comcast's $45 billion purchase of Time Warner Cable and Medtronic's $43 billion deal for Covidien. The more than $81 billion in I.P.O.s is the most since 2000, the height of the dot-com boom, led by the Alibaba offering.

Dealogic數據顯示，今年到目前爲止，在多宗重大併購交易的推動下，美國的併購交易金額超過了1.3萬億美元，達到歷史最高水平。例如，康卡斯特(Comcast)出資450億美元收購時代華納有線電視公司(Time Warner Cable)，美敦力(Medtronic)出資430億美元收購柯惠醫療(Covidien)。在阿里巴巴上市的拉動下，IPO交易總值超過810億美元，成了網絡股最爲繁榮的2000年以來，規模最大的一年。

In a few short days, however, much of that optimism has evaporated. Bankers across Wall Street say that deals on the verge of being announced are suddenly delayed. I.P.O.s set for this week and next are postponed indefinitely. And the confidence that had fueled record levels of deal-making is nowhere to be found.

但在短短几天后，這種樂觀情緒在很大程度上就消失了。華爾街的銀行從業者表示，那些即將宣佈的交易突然被推遲。原定於本週或下週進行的IPO都被無限期推遲。那種促成創紀錄交易的信心也已經不見了。

"When you're buying and selling companies, you need stability in the markets," said Michael Carr, head of Americas M.&A. for Goldman Sachs. "It doesn't take much for stocks to get out of alignment, and that's what is going on right now."

“你在購買和出售公司的時候，需要市場保持穩定，”高盛(Goldman Sachs)美洲併購業務主管邁克爾·卡爾(Michael Carr)說。“股市很容易出現波動，現在就是這種情況。”

The sustained run of mergers and acquisitions is particularly vulnerable to suddenly volatile markets, several senior investment bankers said. A majority of the deals announced this year have involved at least partial payment in stock.

幾名資深投資銀行家表示，併購案的持續開展特別容易受到市場突然波動的影響。今年公佈的交易中，多數交易的付款手段都包括一部分股票。

"Unlike on the trading side of the business, volatility is not our friend in M.&A.," Mr. Shafir noted.

沙菲爾指出，“與交易業務不同，對於併購業務來說，波動並不是什麼好事。”

When the acquirer's stock suddenly loses value, what was once an economical deal can suddenly seem unaffordable. Similarly, when a company that was poised to sell sees its stock fall, executives often want to wait for the stock price to recover before selling to get the best possible price.

當收購方的股價突然下跌時，曾經非常划算的交易，就會突然變得無法承受。同樣地，當一家準備出售的公司看到股價下跌時，管理人員通常希望等到股價回升後再出售，以便賣出儘可能高的價格。

"A good M.&A. market happens when both parties are comfortable with the relative relationships between their two stocks," Mr. Carr said. "That relationship is a really narrow and sensitive band."

“當雙方都對彼此股票的相對關係感到滿意時，才能做成一筆好買賣，”卡爾說。“這是一個很敏感也很窄的區間。”

But with companies' valuations jumping around, many deals are expected to be delayed until the markets stabilize.

但由於公司市值不斷波動，很多交易都將推遲到行情穩定後再進行。

For companies seeking to go public, the roller coaster markets are similarly disruptive.

對於尋求上市的公司，這種過山車般的行情同樣具有破壞性。

"The market is taking a breath, and therefore the I.P.O. market will also take a breath," said David Hermer, global head of equity capital markets at Credit Suisse. "Issuers are standing on the sideline for the moment."

“市場正在喘氣，所以IPO市場也要喘口氣，”瑞信(Credit Suisse)股權資本市場的全球負責人戴維·赫爾默(David Hermer)說。“目前，打算上市的企業正在場外觀望。”

In Europe, a handful of planned I.P.O.s were withdrawn in the last two weeks, including those of the British bank Aldermore, the Italian cosmetics company Intercos, the French energy services company Spie, and the Italian technology company Italiaonline.

在歐洲，過去兩週，若干宗計劃中的IPO已被撤回，這些公司包括英國銀行Aldermore、意大利化妝品公司瑩特麗(Intercos)、法國能源服務公司Spie，以及意大利科技公司Italiaonline。

With renewed fears of an economic slowdown in Europe, sustained unrest in the Middle East and Ukraine, and swelling fears of Ebola around the globe, the markets may not stage a strong recovery anytime soon.

歐洲經濟的減速、中東和烏克蘭的持續動盪，以及全球各地對埃博拉病毒的日益恐慌，再次引發了人們的擔憂，市場可能不會在近期內出現強勢反彈。

"There's a lot of stuff going on the world right now," said Neil Dhar, United States capital markets leader at PricewaterhouseCoopers. "Volatility is not the friend of an I.P.O. It creates a lot of angst in the marketplace."

“目前，世界上正在發生各種事情，”普華永道(PricewaterhouseCoopers)的美國資本市場負責人尼爾·達爾(Neil Dhar)說。“不穩定性對IPO沒有好處。它會讓人對市場產生許多擔心。”

And still, many deal makers said they believed that the underlying conditions for mergers, acquisitions and I.P.O.s remained healthy. Investors are looking for growth, which leads to deals and new public offerings. And companies have lots of cash to spend.

不過，很多交易撮合者仍然表示，他們認爲對於併購和IPO來說，基本的情況仍然是健康的。投資者在尋找增長，而這種期望會促成交易和新的IPO。而且很多企業還有許多現金可以花。

"A one or two week up-and-down in the marketplace isn't going to change global M.&A. activity overnight," Mr. Dhar said. "It's not the sign of a death knell for new issuance through the end of the year."

“一兩週的市場起伏不會在一夜之間改變全球的併購活動，”達爾說。“這並不意味着直到年底前，都不能再發行新股了。”

And there are some bright spots.

此外，還有一些令人高興的事。

Several big breakups and spinoffs, including those of Hewlett-Packard, eBay and Symantec, could lead to activity in the months ahead. Big industrial groups like DuPont and Dow are also expected to sell off business units.

惠普(Hewlett-Packard)、eBay和賽門鐵克(Symantec)的幾宗拆分和剝離資產的大動作，可能會促使未來幾個月出現一些交易活動。根據預期，杜邦(DuPont)和陶氏(Dow)等工業集團可能也會出售一些業務部門。

"In the pipeline there are a huge amount of spinoffs," said Sriram Prakash, global head of M.&A. insight at Deloitte. "Those are likely to keep the M.&A. markets busy."

“還有大量剝離資產的動作等待完成，”德勤(Deloitte)併購研究部門的全球負責人斯里拉姆·普拉卡什(Sriram Prakash)說。“併購市場很可能會因此處於繁忙狀態。”

What is more, if stock prices fall precipitously and remain low, some companies may go after targets that suddenly seem affordable.

此外，如果股價暴跌並保持在低水平，有些企業可能就會瞄準那些身價降下來，彷彿突然買得起了的目標。

"Some opportunistic corporate players who have cash and a strong balance sheet may take the opportunity to act in a market when values are down," Mr. Carr said.

卡爾說，“一些手裏有現金，而且財務狀況良好的投機主義企業，可能會在價格低迷時期抓住機會採取行動。”

Private equity firms, which have largely held back from buying companies this year, might also be emboldened by a sustained dip in corporate valuations.

今年基本未曾收購任何企業的私募股權公司，或許也會因爲企業估值的持續下跌而受到鼓舞。

Noting the $18 billion war chest in its possession, the private equity giant Blackstone Group said it would look for opportunities in the market turmoil.

私募股權巨頭黑石集團(Blackstone Group)指出，自己擁有180億美元的資金，也將在市場動盪時期尋找機會。

"We are uniquely positioned to take advantage of market volatility across all of our businesses," Stephen A. Schwarzman, Blackstone's chairman and chief executive, told analysts on Thursday. "With one of the largest pools of dry powder capital, we can and will move quickly to respond to market dislocations. These types of investment environments end up becoming some of our best vintages."

“我們已經做好了特別準備，對業務覆蓋領域的市場動盪加以利用，”黑石董事長兼CEO史蒂文·A·施瓦茨曼(Stephen A. Schwarzman)週四告訴分析人士。“我們擁有最大的‘幹火藥'資金庫之一，有能力也有意願迅速對市場錯位做出迴應。這些類型的投資環境，最後會成爲我們最好的時機。”