難民危機終結默克爾黃金時代
At the beginning of this year, Angela Merkelhad a good claim to be the most successful politician in the world. The German chancellor had won three successive election victories. She was the dominant political figure in Europe and hugely popular at home.
今年初，安格拉默克爾(Angela Merkel)有很好的理由號稱世界上最成功的政界人士。這位德國總理已連續三次勝選。她是歐洲最具影響力的政治人物，在國內也廣受歡迎。
But the refugee crisis that has broken over Germany is likely to spell the end of the Merkel era. With the country in line to receive more than a million asylum-seekers this year alone, public anxiety is mounting and so is criticism of Ms Merkel, from within her own party. Some of her close political allies acknowledge that it is now distinctly possible that the chancellor will have to leave office, before the next general election in 2017. Even if she sees out a full term, the notion of a fourth Merkel administration, widely discussed a few months ago, now seems improbable.
然而，衝向德國的難民危機很可能預示着默克爾時代的終結。由於僅今年就要接收超過100萬尋求庇護者，德國公衆的焦慮情緒正在上升，黨內對默克爾的批評也越來越多。幾位與她關係密切的政治盟友承認，現在看來很有可能的是默克爾不得不在2017年下屆大選前下臺。即使她做完這一任期，幾個月前還被廣泛討論的第四屆默克爾政府如今看來已不太可能。
In some ways, all this is deeply unfair. Ms Merkel did not cause the Syrian civil war, or the troubles of Eritrea or Afghanistan. Her response to the plight of the millions of refugees displaced by conflict has been bold and compassionate. The chancellor has tried to live up to the best traditions of postwar Germany including respect for human-rights and a determination to abide by international legal obligations.
從某些方面看，這一切對默克爾非常不公。敘利亞內戰、厄立特里亞或阿富汗的困境並非默克爾造成。她對數百萬因衝突而流離失所的難民的迴應是大膽而富有同情心的。默克爾已盡力保持了戰後德國最優秀的傳統包括尊重人權以及堅定遵守國際法律義務。
The trouble is that Ms Merkel’s government has clearly lost control of the situation. German officials publicly endorse the chancellor’s declaration that “We can do this”. But there is panic just beneath the surface: costs are mounting, social services are creaking, Ms Merkel’s poll ratings are falling and far-right violence is on the rise. Der Spiegel, a news magazine, wrote this week that: “Germany these days is a place where people feel entirely uninhibited about expressing their hatred and xenophobia.”
問題是默克爾政府顯然已經失去了對局勢的控制。雖然德國官員公開支持總理的聲明“我們可以做到”，但表面之下隱藏着恐慌：開支越來越大，社會服務體系不堪重負，默克爾的民意支持率正在下滑，而極右暴力事件正在增多。德國新聞雜誌《明鏡週刊》(Der Spiegel)本週寫道：“今天的德國已變成一個人們感覺可以完全不受約束地發泄仇恨和排外情緒的地方。”
As the placid surface of German society is disturbed, so arguments about the positive economic and demographic impact of immigration are losing their impact. Instead, fears about the long-term social and political effect of taking in so many newcomers particularly from the imploding Middle East are gaining ground. Meanwhile, refugees are still heading into Germany at a rate of around 10,000 a day. (By contrast, Britain is volunteering to accept 20,000 Syrian refugees over four years.)
隨着德國社會表面的平靜被打破，移民對經濟和人口結構帶來積極影響的觀點正在失去市場。相反，對收容如此多的新來者尤其是來自正在內爆的中東的人帶來的長期社會和政治影響的擔憂正在加劇。與此同時，難民仍在以每天約1萬人的速度涌入德國。（相比之下，英國願意在4年期間收容2萬名敘利亞難民。）
It is all such a contrast with the calm and control that Ms Merkel used to radiate, captured by her nickname Mutti (or “mum”). Throughout 2014, as Ms Merkel led Europe’s response to the eurozone crisis and Russia’s annexation of Crimea, German voters seemed more inclined than ever to place their faith in the judgment of the chancellor.
這與默克爾曾經展示出的鎮定與控制體現在她的綽號“媽媽”(Mutti)上形成鮮明對比。2014年期間，隨着默克爾領導歐洲應對歐元區危機以及俄羅斯對克里米亞的吞併，德國選民似乎比以往任何時候都更傾向於相信這位總理的判斷。
The refugee crisis, however, revealed another side to Ms Merkel. Some voters seem to have concluded that Mutti has gone mad flinging open Germany’s borders to the wretched of the earth.
然而，難民危機展示了默克爾的另一面。一些選民似乎已經得出結論：媽媽已經瘋了，她向全球的可憐人敞開了德國的邊界。
That, of course, is a major oversimplification. Germany’s decision last month not to return Syrian asylum-seekers to the first safe country they had entered was, in part, just a pragmatic acknowledgment that such a policy was no longer practical. Nonetheless, Ms Merkel was widely seen as having announced an “open door”. That impression persists, making Germany (along with Sweden) the EU country of choice for asylum seekers.
當然，這是一種嚴重過於簡單化的描述。德國上月決定不將敘利亞尋求庇護者遣返回他們進入的第一個安全國家，這在一定某種程度上只是務實地承認，這樣的政策已不再可行。儘管如此，默克爾還是被廣泛視爲宣佈了“開放邊界”政策。這種印象揮之不去，使德國（連同瑞典）成爲尋求庇護者首選的歐盟國家。
The only way to turn this situation around quickly would be to build border fences of the kind that the Hungarian government of Viktor Orban has constructed. Some German conservatives are now calling for precisely such measures. But Ms Merkel is highly unlikely to embrace the Orban option. She knows that such a policy could sound the death knell for free movement of people within the EU, and would also seriously destabilise the Balkans by bottling up refugees there.
迅速扭轉這一局面的唯一途徑，是在邊境架起維克托歐爾班(Viktor Orban)領導的匈牙利政府所建的那種帶刺鐵絲網。德國一些保守派人士現在正在呼籲採取此類措施。但默克爾極不可能採用歐爾班的作法。她知道，這樣的政策將爲歐盟內部人口的自由流動敲響喪鐘，也會將難民困在巴爾幹半島地區，從而嚴重破壞那裏的穩定。
Instead, Ms Merkel wants an EU-wide solution. But German plans for a compulsory mechanism to share out refugees across the EU and for an emergency fund to share the costs are encountering stiff resistance. As a result, Germany’s relations with its EU partners, already strained by the eurozone crisis, are worsening. The election of an anti-migrant government in Poland this weekend will not help.
相反，默克爾希望拿出一項歐盟範圍內的解決方案。但德國提出在歐盟各國分配難民的強制機制（以及一個分攤成本的應急基金）的計劃遭遇了強烈的抵制。結果是，德國與歐盟夥伴之間本來就因歐元區危機而變得緊張的關係正在惡化。上週末反移民政府在波蘭上臺，將使情況變得更糟。
Could Ms Merkel still turn the situation around? If the German government gets lucky, the coming of winter will slow the flow of refugees, providing a breathing space to organise the reception of asylum seekers and to come up with new arrangements with transit countries, particularly Turkey.
默克爾還能扭轉局勢嗎？如果德國政府幸運的話，冬天的到來將減緩難民流入，可以爲安排收容尋求庇護者，並與難民過境國家（尤其是土耳其）一起制定新的安排提供喘息空間。
Should the chancellor regain control of the situation it remains possible that in 20 years’ time, she could yet be seen as the mother of a different, more vibrant and multicultural Germany a country that held on to its values when it was put to the test.
如果默克爾能夠重新控制局勢的話，那麼20年後，她仍可能會被視爲一個不同、更具活力和多元文化的德國一個在經受考驗時堅持自己價值觀的國家的“媽媽”。
However, if the number of refugees heading into Germany continues at its present level for some time, and Ms Merkel remains committed to open borders, the pressure for her to step down will grow. There are, at present, no obvious rivals. But a continuing crisis will doubtless throw some up.
然而，如果涌入德國的難民人數在一段時期內繼續保持當前水平，而默克爾仍堅持開放邊界，那麼要求她下臺的壓力將會增大。目前，她還沒有明顯的對手。但持續發酵的危機無疑將讓一些人跳出來。
Regardless of the chancellor’s personal fate and reputation, the refugee crisis marks a turning point. The decade after Ms Merkel first came to power in 2005 now looks like a blessed period for Germany, in which the country was able to enjoy peace, prosperity and international respect, while keeping the troubles of the world at a safe distance. That golden era is now over.
姑且不論默克爾的個人命運和聲譽，這場難民危機標誌着一個轉折點。對德國而言，默克爾在2005年首次上臺後的10年現在看起來是一段幸運的時期，在那期間，德國能夠享受和平、繁榮和國際尊重，同時將世界的各種麻煩保持在安全距離之外。如今，這樣的黃金時代已經結束。
