中國央行考慮改進貨幣供應量計算方法

Three years after China's central bank unveiled a new measure to calculate the amount of credit in the economy, it may be going back to the drawing board.

中國央行在三年前推出了一項新的指標來計算經濟中的貨幣供應量，而現在或許要重新考慮更好的貨幣供應量計算方法了。

Pan Gongsheng, a vice governor at the People's Bank of China, said this week that the financial sector has rolled out so many innovative products in recent years that it has become much more difficult to calculate the nation's money supply.

中國央行副行長潘功勝本週表示，中國金融行業部門近年來已經推出了一系列創新型金融產品，這使得央行更加難以計算中國的貨幣供應量。

The PBOC didn't name names, but recent financial innovations have included wealth management products and fast-growing online investment funds like Yu'e Bao -- all of them offering investors higher returns than traditional bank deposits.

Getty Images中國央行並未指明是哪些創新型金融產品。不過近來的金融創新包括理財產品以及迅速增長的網上投資基金餘額寶等，這些產品向投資者提供的收益率均高於傳統銀行存款。

Such innovations 'have affected the accuracy, completeness and scientific methodology of money-supply calculations,' Mr. Pan said Thursday at a meeting of financial regulators and academics. 'Hence we need to improve the financial calculation mechanism so as to better serve macro financial regulation and prevent systemic risks.'

潘功勝週四在一次研討會上表示，這些金融創新影響了貨幣供應量計量的準確性、完整性和科學性，因此需要完善金融統計框架，更好地支持金融宏觀調控和系統性金融風險防範。金融監管機構和專家學者參加了此次會議。

Mr. Pan said regulators would set up a unified and comprehensive calculation system for the financial sector, but didn't give further details.

潘功勝還說，監管機構要建立統一、全面、共享的金融業綜合統計體系，但他未提供進一步的細節。

If this all sounds vaguely familiar -- well, it should.

這一切聽起來似乎很耳熟。事實上也確實是如此。

Three years ago, unhappy with its existing tools for measuring domestic credit, the PBOC rolled out what it called total social financing, or TSF, trumpeted as a more representative measure than total bank loans or M2 (broad money supply).

三年前，由於不滿當時衡量國內貨幣供應量的指標，中國央行推出了被其稱爲社會融資規模的指標，並稱該指標比銀行貸款總額或廣義貨幣供應量(M2)更具代表性。

The explanation for the change was a good one: Bank loans are no longer the overwhelming source of credit in China's financial system. Last year, they made up only about 51% of total new financing.

這一改變理由充分：銀行貸款不再是中國金融系統的主要信貸源頭。去年，銀行貸款在新增貸款總量中所佔比重僅爲51%左右。

'In recent years our financial aggregates have expanded rapidly along with a diversification of financial institutions,' the PBOC said when it introduced the TSF measure. 'The number of financial products and financial tools has increased amid continuous innovation... There has been a marked upturn in off-balance sheet business, and that is replacing some of the role of bank loans.'

中國央行此前在推出社會融資總量這個指標時稱，近年來，中國金融總量快速擴張，金融結構多元發展，金融產品和融資工具不斷創新，金融機構表外業務大量增加，對貸款表現出明顯替代效應。

In addition to bank loans, TSF included newer categories such as trust lending, entrusted loans -- or credits between companies -- and bankers' acceptances, to name a few items.

除了銀行貸款，社會融資總量還包括信託貸款、委託貸款和銀行承兌匯票等新類別。

Since its introduction, the TSF measure has faced plenty of controversy in academic circles. Debate has focused on whether the gauge covers enough of the nation's credit, whether it double-counts some components and whether it creates distorted data.

自推出以來，社會融資總量在學術界面臨諸多爭議。爭論焦點在於這個指標是否對中國的信貸進行了足夠的覆蓋，是否存在重複計算情況，以及是否產生了扭曲的數據。

The central bank has defended its calculations, but that hasn't put the issue to rest. Thursday's comments from Mr. Pan seemed to indicate a change of heart at the PBOC.

中國央行一直爲這個指標進行辯護，但未能平息圍繞它的爭議。週四潘功勝的言論似乎暗示央行立場已經轉變。

Economists had mixed reactions to the bank's search for better monetary-measuring methods.

經濟學家對央行尋求更好的貨幣供應量計量方法的看法各異。

Financial consultant Nicholas Zhu, who works with regulators, smaller banks and the Asian Development Bank, said it's 'absolutely' the case that the PBOC's task is much harder than it used to be.

與監管部門、中小銀行和亞洲開發銀行(Asian Development Bank)合作的金融顧問Nicholas Zhu說，這“絕對”是因爲央行任務的難度比原先更大了。

'What we are seeing is financial innovation' that's making the system far more complex, he said.

他說，我們所看到的金融創新令金融系統變得更加複雜。

Mr. Zhu noted there's a lot of 'financing repackaging' -- or funds that move from one area of the financial system to another, such as through bank and trust company cooperation.

Zhu指出，現在存在着許多的“融資再包裝”，也就是資金從一個金融系統領域流向另一個領域，例如通過銀行和信託公司的合作在其間流動。

Jurgen Conrad, head of the economics unit at the Asian Development Bank's office in Beijing, said the total social financing gauge in its present form was of limited use.

亞洲開發銀行駐北京辦公室經濟學部門主管康拉德(Jurgen Conrad)說，目前的社會融資規模指標用處十分有限。

'There are well known conceptual problems' with TSF, he said. The ADB looks at M2, he said, as well as separate financial segments such as entrusted loans and bankers' acceptances.

他說，“社會融資規模”存在着衆所周知的概念性問題；亞洲開發銀行盯的是M2以及單獨的金融領域，例如委託貸款、銀行承兌匯票等等。

Another problem is that the central bank doesn't give a figure for the total stock of social financing, only the incremental portion. Economists say they can work backwards with the data, but often with disappointing results.

另一個問題是，中國央行沒有給出社會融資規模的總量數據，只給出過增量部分。經濟學家們說，他們可以利用這些增量數據倒推回去，但結果總是令人失望。

'Stock plus flow would be more valuable,' Mr. Conrad said.

康拉德說，總量加上流動規模才比較有價值。

The PBOC may be looking to add M3 data -- a broader measure of money supply that includes less liquid assets -- to its current mix. But even that wouldn't satisfy all critics.

中國央行可能正考慮將廣義貨幣供應量M3加入當前組合，這是衡量貨幣供應量的更廣泛指標，囊括了流動性不那麼高的資產。不過就算這樣，也無法讓所有批評者滿意。

'There's actually a need for a change in the way we make monetary policy, ' said Lu Zhengwei, an economist with Industrial Bank in Shanghai. 'We need another framework.'

興業銀行駐上海經濟學家魯政委說，實際上，現在貨幣政策的制定途徑有必要做出改變。他說：我們需要另一種框架。

Mr. Lu said the PBOC should target a key rate for its monetary management effort, much as the U.S. Federal Reserve does. Whether that's the overnight interbank rate or some longer-term rate doesn't matter.

魯政委說，央行應當效仿美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve, 簡稱：美聯儲)的做法，爲其貨幣管理政策樹立起一個至關重要的利率目標。這個關鍵利率目標是隔夜銀行同業拆借利率還是某個更長期利率，這並不重要。

But that would require progress on liberalizing interest rates, which are still partly controlled by the central bank.

不過，央行要這樣做，就需要推進利率自由化進程，而目前利率仍然在一定程度上由央行控制。

'If we have a better measure,' but not a new framework, 'what's the point?' Mr. Lu asked.

魯政委提出了這樣一個問題：如果我們找到一種更好的計量辦法，但框架仍是舊有框架，又有什麼意義呢？