中國國企改革有望爲私募帶來良機
When Shuanghui International lists in Hong Kong sometime in the next few months it will give the world a novel beast: a Sino-US pork giant worth up to $12bn. But this beast almost certainly would not have been created without the push of private equity.
幾個月後當雙匯國際(Shuanghui International)在香港掛牌上市時，將爲整個世界帶來一匹新興黑馬：一家市值高達120億美元的中美豬肉加工巨頭。但如果沒有私募股權的推動，這匹黑馬幾乎不可能被創造出來。Shuanghui’s bold $7.1bn takeover of Smithfield Foods of the US last year was a deal plump with strategic gains. China’s urban drift and embourgeoisement means more people want not only more meat, but also meat that is safer and with posher sounding foreign brand names.
雙匯去年大膽斥資71億美元收購了美國企業史密斯菲爾德食品公司(Smithfield Foods)，這項交易在戰略上的益處很多。中國的城鎮化進程以及中產階層的崛起意味着，越來越多的人不僅想吃更多的肉製品，還希望肉製品的質量更加安全，並擁有更具品位的外國品牌。Shuanghui, already China’s biggest pork producer with more pigs than Beijing has citizens, nailed three strategic imperatives with this deal. First, access to raw meat supply; second, the technology and knowhow to produce more pork more efficiently; and third, a string of popular US brands for meat, bacon and sausages.
雙匯——該公司現已是中國第一大豬肉生產商，存欄生豬數量超過北京居民人數——通過這項交易達到了三大戰略目的。其一，得到了生肉供應渠道；其二，獲得了以更高效率生產更多豬肉的技術訣竅；其三，收穫了一系列頗受歡迎的美國肉食、火腿以及香腸品牌。
But to the frustration of M&A bankers, there are hundreds if not thousands of corporate marriages between Chinese companies and foreign businesses that make oodles of strategic sense but do not happen. At a time when M&A activity had crumbled elsewhere, the world’s second-largest economy last year finally became the second largest home for companies pursuing acquisitions overseas, according to Dealogic. But the near $70bn total value of outbound deals was still only about one-third of international deals by US companies.
但讓併購銀行家們頗有挫敗感的是，中國企業與外國企業之間存在着成百上千個在戰略上高度合理的聯姻機會，但這些機會未能得到利用。Dealogic提供的數據顯示，雖然去年全球其他地區的併購交易活動顯著萎縮，但中國企業在海外進行的併購交易數量終於攀升到了全球第二位，與中國作爲全球第二大經濟體的地位相稱。但中國企業海外併購交易的總規模不到700億美元，仍只是美國企業國際併購規模的大約三分之一。At Shuanghui, what got the deal done was the presence of private equity. A takeover can make all the strategic sense in the world, but the people behind a company – its owners and its executives – still need a tangible, immediate incentive to work the hours and take the risks needed to pursue the deal.
對於雙匯來說，促使併購交易達成的原因在於私募股權的介入。一項併購交易可以在戰略上充分合理，但真正掌管企業的人——即企業的所有者和管理層——仍然需要一種看得見摸得着的激勵，才願意爲了達成交易而投入長時間的工作並承擔風險。CDH Investments, a Chinese private equity house, and Goldman Sach’s investment arm have both had money in Shuanghui since 2006. CDH owns about one-third of the company, while Goldman and a handful of other private investors own a further 20 per cent. These investors have been agitating for an exit and Shuanghui’s septuagenarian founder, Wan Long, made an eager accomplice.
中國私募股權公司鼎暉投資(CDH Investments)以及高盛(Goldman Sachs)旗下的投資部門自2006年以來都向雙匯進行了投資。鼎暉投資擁有雙匯約三分之一的股權，而高盛以及另外幾個私人投資者擁有20%的股權。這些投資方一直在努力推動雙匯上市，雙匯年屆七旬的創始人萬隆熱切地成爲了他們的同盟。Other investors and bankers in Asia reckon it will be extremely difficult to stitch Shuanghui and Smithfield into a coherent and unified company. The company may not even properly attempt it. But what they are certain of is that the chairman and his backers have created a commercial proposition that can be sold to the public markets – and that outcome more than anything else drove the deal, they say.
亞洲其他投資方以及銀行家們認爲，把雙匯和史密斯菲爾德整合爲一家協調統一的公司將非常困難。雙匯甚至可能做不出恰當的嘗試。但他們確信的一點是，雙匯董事長萬隆以及他的支持者們拿出了一項能向公開市場兜售的商業主張——他們指出，相對於其他方面來說，那是推動交易實現的最主要因素。No sector in China today needs a catalysing ingredient more than the state-owned enterprises. This is likely to give private equity some of its best, if toughest, opportunities in the years ahead, according to some senior dealmakers from the industry.
在當今中國，沒有哪個領域比國有企業更需要催化劑。業內某些資深交易撮合者指出，未來幾年國有企業改革可能給私募股權帶來一些最好的、同時也是難度最大的機遇。The industry in Asia has never managed to create the conveyor-belt of leveraged buyouts and resales of companies that it achieved in the US and Europe. Last year, there were just five buyouts worth more than $1bn in the entire region, including Japan.
私募股權行業從未在亞洲成功打造出過槓桿收購以及企業轉售的傳送帶，相對於其在美國和歐洲的表現有很大差距。去年在包括日本的整個亞洲，僅有5筆超過10億美元的收購交易。State-owned enterprises offer the chance for private equity to make real change and real money. Fred Hu, the former head of Goldman Sachs in China and founder of Primavera, one of China’s oldest and best known private equity houses, says there are some very good, talented people operating inside SOEs, but that they lack the incentives – financial or otherwise – to push change.
國有企業爲私募股權提供了做大事、賺大錢的機會。胡祖六(Fred Hu)是高盛中國區前主管、中國成立最久、知名度最高的私募股權公司之一春華資本(Primavera Capital)的創始人。他表示，國有企業擁有一些非常出色、極有才幹的經營人才，但這些人缺乏推動變革的動力——不論是財務還是其他動力。“Private equity can play a good role [in SOE reform] partly as capital provider, but also to help change the culture and the mindset,” he says. “Be under no illusion, this could be a good opportunity, but it will be very hard. Technically, culturally and politically there are a lot of risks there.” Another very experienced Chinese private equity leader says the presence of investors with very specific and time-limited financial goals “really helps to affect that change as an outside force”. XD Yang, the head of Carlyle in China, told a small industry gathering in Hong Kong last week that his firm was excited by the opportunities in reshaping bigger SOEs.
他說：“私募股權可以在國有企業改革中扮演資金提供者的重要角色，同時還能幫助國企改變內部文化和員工心態。要清楚地認識到，這可能是一個大好機遇，但操作起來將非常艱難。在技術上、文化上以及政治上都存在很多風險。”另一位資歷頗深的中國私募股權行業領袖表示，擁有明確以及中短期財務目標的投資者的出現，“非常有助於作爲一種外部力量影響變革進程”。凱雷(Carlyle)中國區主管楊向東(XD Yang)最近在香港的一個小規模行業集會上表示，他的公司對大型國有企業改革中蘊含的機遇感到非常興奮。Private equity managers will need good political contacts and diplomatic skills to smooth egos, ease out the obstructive older guard and help the talented executives get the performance-related pay schemes that will give them the tangible incentives to reshape their companies.
私募股權公司的經理們需要出色的政界人脈以及外交技巧，以安撫相關方面的自尊心，請走那些阻擋阻礙改革的守舊者，幫助有才能的高管獲得與業績掛鉤的薪酬方案，使他們有實實在在的動力去改革自己所在企業。Private equity’s best role in China should be as agitator and catalyst that will not only unlock investment opportunities for firms but potentially put China M&A on a closer footing to its economic might.
私募股權在中國的最佳角色應當是一個推動者和催化劑，不僅能夠爲企業開啓投資機會，還有望使中國的併購格局與中國的經濟實力更加相稱。
