基金經理教你股票賣出策略

When investors shop for mutual funds, they often consider the methods the managers use to select stocks. But there's another side to that coin that also merits attention: How do the managers decide which stocks to sell - and when to sell?
當投資者選購共同基金時，他們通常會考慮基金經理用來選擇股票的方法。但還有另一個方面值得注意：基金經理如何決定賣出哪些股票──以及何時賣出？

A thoughtful, consistent approach to selling shares is just as important to a fund's success as the same qualities in purchasing stocks. After all, errant sell decisions are lost opportunities for returns.
對於基金的成功來說，以經過成熟思考而且前後一致的方法賣出股票和以經過成熟思考而且前後一致的方法買入股票同樣重要。畢竟，錯誤的賣出決策就是喪失收益機會。

'If you can have some type of structure within your process to make sell decisions or consider sell decisions, that keeps you one up on your competition,' says David Rolfe, chief investment officer at Wedgewood Partners Inc. in St. Louis and lead portfolio manager of the RiverPark/Wedgewood fund.
聖路易斯（St. Louis）Wedgewood Partners Inc.的首席投資長、RiverPark/Wedgewood基金的首席投資組合經理戴維•羅爾夫（David Rolfe）說，"如果你在做出賣出決策或考慮賣出決策的過程中依循某種條理，那麼這會讓你在競爭中取勝。"

Deciding what to sell is 'one of the most difficult things for any investor,' he says. Sometimes it's a matter of parting with a holding that has served the portfolio well for years but has little potential for additional gains. Other times, the fund manager has to acknowledge that he or she made a mistake in buying that security in the first place.
他說，確定賣出哪隻股票是"任何投資者需要做出的最困難的決定之一"。有時這要拋棄多年來在投資組合中表現良好但不太有可能獲得更多收益的股票。還有些時候，基金經理必須承認，他在一開始買入該證券時就犯了錯誤。

Many fund managers provide a fair amount of insight into both sides of the investing equation in prospectuses, shareholder reports and other communications. We spoke to a handful of managers to discuss how they make the decision to sell.
在招股說明書、股東報告和其他信息中，許多基金經理對於買入和賣出決策都提供了相當多的見解。我們與幾位基金經理討論了他們是如何做出賣出決策的。

In With the New, Out With the Old
棄舊迎新

Mr. Rolfe and his team at RiverPark/Wedgewood manage a portfolio that forces them to regularly make decisions on which stocks to sell, because by policy the fund holds only 19 to 21 stocks. 'My partners and I know that while we are looking at new ideas we are going to have to sell a position' to make room for any addition, he says. 'That makes us constantly focused on those ideas in a portfolio that aren't working out as well.'
羅爾夫和他在RiverPark/Wedgewood的團隊管理的投資組合迫使他們必須定期決定賣出哪些股票，因爲按照政策這隻基金只能持有19只至21只股票。他說，"我的合作伙伴和我知道，當我們考慮新策略時，我們必須賣出某隻股票"好爲新加入的股票騰地方，"這讓我們必須持續關注那些效果不好的投資組合策略。"

They pull the trigger when a buying opportunity provides a better long-term Growth outlook than something that's already in the portfolio.
當買入機會的長期增長前景優於投資組合中的現有股票時，他們就會採取行動。

Two examples of stocks his firm sold in recent months to make space for new positions are Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS AG, victims of what Mr. Rolfe calls a 'very difficult banking and investment environment.'
舉例而言，他的公司在最近幾個月中爲給新股票騰地方而賣出的兩隻股票是高盛集團（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）和瑞銀集團（UBS AG），羅爾夫稱它們是"非常困難的銀行業與投資環境"的犧牲品。

'We thought they were the least attractive stocks in our current portfolio,' he says. 'We sold them because we found a much better idea.' The two banking stocks were replaced with the shares of a couple of oil firms: National Oilwell Varco Inc. and Schlumberger Ltd.
他說，"我們認爲它們是我們當前的投資組合中最不具吸引力的股票。我們賣掉它們，是因爲我們找到了好得多的策略。"這兩隻銀行股被兩家石油公司的股票取代：國民油井華高（National Oilwell Varco Inc.）和斯倫貝謝公司（Schlumberger Ltd.）。Acknowledge Your Mistakes
承認錯誤

Periodically - and especially when a stock is proving to be disappointing - it's important for fund managers to go back and review the assumptions that were made at the time of purchase.
基金經理定期──尤其是當一隻股票被證明令人失望時──回過頭重新審視購買時做出的假設是很重要的。

'The hardest thing for investment professionals to come to grips with is when they have misanalyzed a stock,' says Phil Davidson, chief investment officer for value stocks at American Century Investments in Kansas City, Mo.
密蘇里州堪薩斯城（Kansas City）American Century Investments負責股票估值的首席投資長菲爾•戴維森（Phil Davidson）說，"專業投資人士最難應對的是他們錯誤分析了股票的時候。"

He gives an example of when that happened at his firm. His American Century Mid Cap Value began building a position in Best Buy Co. in the third quarter of 2010, with most of the buying occurring in July of that year. Purchases were primarily in the low to mid $30s. But by the second quarter of last year, the fund began to sour on the stock and started selling, initially in the low $30s. It was out of the stock by the fourth quarter, with the final selling taking place in November, when the stock was in the $26 to $27 range. For the past few months, the stock has been trading in the $17 to $20 range.
他舉了個發生在他公司的例子。2010年第三季度，American Century Mid Cap Value基金開始買入百思買（Best Buy Co.）的股票，多數買入發生在當年7月。買價主要爲30美元至40美元之間的中低位。但到了去年第二季度，該基金開始看跌該股票並開始賣出，初始賣價是30美元出頭。到了第四季度，該基金對該股票清倉，最後一次賣出發生在11月，當時該股票的價格爲26美元至27美元。在過去幾個月，該股票的交易價格爲17美元至20美元。

'The company had good free cash flow in a very dynamic retail world. But we underestimated the changes in the competitive landscape and how much the company would be hurt by that,' Mr. Davidson says. Best Buy's big-box stores were seen as the category killer for a while, pushing out competitors such as Circuit City Stores Inc. But Best Buy more recently has lost business to online retailers that can offer more selection and often lower prices.
戴維森說，"這家公司在瞬息萬變的零售業中有良好的自由現金流。但我們低估了競爭環境的變化以及這家公司因此受到的傷害。"百思買的倉儲式商店一度被視爲品類殺手，它擠出了Circuit City Stores Inc.等競爭對手。但最近百思買的生意被能提供更多選擇、通常還能提供更低價格的網絡零售商搶走。

It may seem obvious to sell a stock that isn't meeting expectations, but the decision is more complicated than that, Mr. Davidson says, 'because we never know for sure whether it's permanent.'
戴維森說，賣出一隻不符合預期的股票似乎是顯而易見的決定，但這個決定比表面上要複雜。"因爲我們永遠無法確知它是否會永遠這樣。"

Think About What's Fair
考慮公允價值

In looking at stocks to buy, many investment pros estimate a fair value for the shares, based on factors including the company's earnings, the rate of revenue growth and the multiples of earnings at which the shares of companies in a particular industry are trading. Fund managers generally aim to buy at a discount to fair value, and many have selling rules linked to that fair value, which is a figure that may change over time.
在考慮買入哪些股票時，許多投資專家都會根據一系列因素估計股票的公允價值，包括公司收益、收入增長率和特定行業中公司股票的市盈率。基金經理的目的通常是以公允價值的折價購買股票，而許多基金經理秉持和該公允價值相關的賣出規則，這個價值是一個可能隨時間推移而變化的數字。

For Andy Jung, co-portfolio manager for Aston/Montag & Caldwell Mid Cap Growth in Atlanta, a position becomes a candidate for trimming when the stock reaches 100% of his firm's estimate of its fair value. 'Then at 120% of our price target we have to take action in terms of reducing or in many cases eliminating the position outright,' he says. 'The upside potential at that point is not as significant as the downside potential should the fundamentals falter.'
對亞特蘭大Aston/Montag & Caldwell Mid Cap Growth基金的聯席投資組合經理安迪•容（Andy Jung）而言，當股票達到他的公司對其公允價值估計的100%時，這隻股票就成爲了被剔除的候選股。他說，"當它達到我們的價格目標的120%時，我們就必須採取行動減少頭寸，在許多情況下還要剔除頭寸。如果基本面衰退的話，此時上漲可能不如下跌可能那麼大。"

Sometimes the selling starts before the 120% threshold, as it did this year for Aston/Montag & Caldwell's holdings of Fluor Corp.
有時，賣出行爲在120%的臨界值之前就開始了，正如Aston/Montag & Caldwell今年對持有的福陸公司（Fluor Corp.）股票所做的那樣。

'The stock had a nice run from mid-December at $47 to February at almost $65,' Mr. Jung notes. 'Our very first purchase of the stock [was] in the summer of 2007, and we had a number of entry points. We exited the entire position on the assumption that at $65 it was fully valued and because we were concerned it didn't have the momentum given economic concerns.'
容指出，"這隻股票有一輪漂亮表現，從12月中旬的47美元漲到了2月的將近65美元。我們首次購買該股票[是]在2007年夏天，而且有多個買入點。根據65美元充分體現出該股票價值的假設，我們退出了整個頭寸，因爲我們擔心經濟出現問題時它會失去動力。"

A Minimum Return
最低收益率

When buying shares, Clint Harris, a senior client portfolio manager for the Invesco Diversified Dividend fund in Houston, looks for stocks that he thinks can deliver at least a 35% total return over two years and that have upside potential that is at least three times their downside potential. When a stock he's holding realizes this upside potential, it becomes a sell candidate.
休斯敦的Invesco Diversified Dividend基金的高級客戶投資組合經理克林特•哈里斯（Clint Harris）購買股票時，會尋找他認爲能在兩年中提供至少35%的總收益率、且上漲可能至少是下跌可能三倍的股票。當他持有的股票實現了該上漲潛力時，它就變成了賣出候選股。

Take, for example, DuPont Co., a stock the fund held since 2006 but sold in February.
杜邦公司（DuPont Co.）就是一個例子，該基金從2006年起就持有該股票，但在2月份將其賣出。

Mr. Harris and his team saw red flags when Wall Street analysts issued estimates of DuPont's earnings that were higher than the Invesco team's. 'That tells me the potential upside for the stock is a bit limited,' he says, because the company's earnings could disappoint investors who are guided by the Wall Street estimates.
當華爾街分析師發佈的杜邦公司收益估計高於Invesco團隊的估計時，哈里斯和他的團隊看到了警告信號。他說，"這告訴我，這隻股票的上漲潛力有一定限制。"因爲這家公司的收益可能會讓受華爾街估計數字引導的投資者失望。

And that meant the stock no longer offered the upside the fund looks for. DuPont had more than met the fund's criteria since the time of purchase, he says, but 'now it is time to move on elsewhere.'
這意味着該股票不再能提供該基金期望的上漲潛力。他說，自從購買杜邦公司股票時起，它的表現已經超過了該基金的標準，但是"現在是時候投資別的股票了。"