歐元創始人：歐元區有可能瓦解

One of the founding fathers of the euro admits that some states may be forced to abandon the single currency, but insists Germany would be better off staying in.

Otmar Issing, a former European Central Bank chief economist, warned that the eurozone could be heading towards fracture in a book called How we save the euro and strengthen Europe published this week.

"Everything speaks in favour of saving the euro area. How many countries will be able to be part of it in the long term remains to be seen," said Mr Issing in the book, which is written as a conversation between an economist and a journalist.

At no point did he explicitly refer to Greece, but the debt-stricken country has been hovering perilously close to default and an exit from the eurozone as it makes harsh spending cuts and tax hikes to appease the EU and ECB after receiving billions in bail-out payments.

"We are still a long way off saying 'that's it, now we are sure to make progress'. Substantial reforms in almost all countries are still pending," he added.

Mr Issing is one of the founding fathers of the euro, but also predicted potential problems with the plan and argued that political union ought to precede a shared currency to ensure its stability in the long-term. The economist has now said there is a case for some countries to leave the union in order to solve their own debt problems, but that Germany would do best to remain a member.

"Even in its short existence, the euro has been more stable than the mark", he said.

The German economist also played down the role that the central bank, his former employer, could have in solving the debt crisis, suggesting that countries needed to fix their own problems.

"There is no quick fix and anything in the direction of euro bonds or something similar would mean for me the end of the stability-oriented currency union.

"The less politicians address the root of the problems, the more they look with their expectations and demands to the ECB, which is not made for this. It is a central bank and not an institution to rescue governments threatened by bankruptcy. A central bank always also acts as a lender of last resort for the banking system - but it does not rescue governments," he said. "Exaggerated expectations alone can harm the prestige of the institution."歐元的創始人之一奧托馬•伊辛近日表示，一些歐元區國家可能被迫放棄這一單一貨幣，但他認爲德國留在歐元區會更好。

在本週發行的新書《我們如何拯救歐元，鞏固歐洲力量》中，前歐洲央行首席經濟學家奧托馬•伊辛提醒說，歐元區有可能瓦解。

伊辛在書中說：“大家都支持拯救歐元區，但從長遠來看，有多少國家會一直留在歐元區還有待觀察。”這本書是以一位經濟學家和一位記者對話的形式寫成的。

他的此番言論並沒有明確將矛頭指向希臘，但深陷債務危機的希臘距離債務違約和退出歐元區也不遠了。希臘實施了嚴格的縮減開支和增稅措施，以便在收到幾十億歐元的援助款後安撫歐盟和歐洲央行。

他補充說：“現在我們離說‘就是這樣，我們可以確保做出改善了’還遠得很。絕大多數成員國的大量改革計劃仍然待定。”

伊辛是歐元的創始人之一，但他也預測出了歐元計劃潛在的問題，並指出，政治聯盟應該領先於單一貨幣，以確保貨幣的長期穩定性。伊辛現在表示，有可能出現有些國家脫離歐元區，以解決國內債務問題的情況，但德國應該盡力留下。

他說：“即使在較短的存在期間，歐元也比馬克穩定。”

他認爲自己的前僱主、歐洲央行在解決債務危機中的角色沒有那麼重要，各個國家需要自己解決問題。

“沒有權宜之計，如果朝着歐元債券或者類似事物的方向發展，那就意味着以穩定爲導向的貨幣聯盟的終結。”

他說：“政治人士們越少談論危機的根源，就能越多地帶着期望和需求看待歐洲央行，歐洲央行不是爲解決債務危機而成立的。它是一個央行，不是拯救瀕臨破產的政府的機構。央行也經常成爲銀行系統的最終貸款人，但央行並不負責拯救政府。誇張的期望足以毀掉央行的聲譽。”