歐盟委員會調低歐元區增長預測

The European Commission slashed its economic outlook for the eurozone yesterday, putting even more pressure on the European Central Bank to expand its arsenal of extraordinary measures aimed at arresting slowing growth and fending off deflation.

歐盟委員會(European Commission)昨日大幅下調了歐元區經濟增長預測，使得歐洲央行(ECB)面臨更大壓力，要求其擴大實施非常規舉措，力求遏制增長放緩，化解通縮威脅。

The Brussels forecast, which predicts the currency bloc growing only 1.1 per cent next year, down from a forecast of 1.7 per cent just six months ago, is one of the most serious indicators yet that the long hoped-for recovery from the continent’s debt crisis may be stalling.

布魯塞爾方面預測，歐元區明年增長率將僅爲1.1%，顯著低於僅6個月前預測的1.7%，這是迄今最嚴重的信號之一，說明歐洲大陸在遭受債務危機之後期盼已久的復甦或許正陷入停滯。

The commission acknowledged the EU economy was not only “particularly weak” as compared to other developed countries, but was also underperforming historic examples of post-crisis recoveries, and the slowdown risked feeding on itself. “The legacy of the crisis is affecting member states to different degrees but sPillovers through trade and confidence are large,” it found.

歐盟委員會承認，歐盟經濟不僅相對於其他發達國家“特別疲弱”，相對於以往危機後的復甦也差強人意，同時增長放緩有自我強化的風險。歐盟委員會認爲：“危機的後遺症對不同成員國的影響程度不同，但通過貿易和市場信心的傳導，這種影響的外溢效果明顯。”

The forecasts for Germany and France, the two largest eurozone economies, were among the most dramatic revisions. The 2015 gross domestic product forecast for Germany, the bloc’s economic engine, was cut from 2 per cent in May to 1.1 per cent. France went from 1.5 per cent to 0.7 per cent.

歐元區最大的兩個經濟體德國和法國的預計增長率下調幅度最大。歐盟委員會將2015年德國國內生產總值(GDP)增長預測從5月的2%調低至1.1%，將法國增長預測從1.5%調低至0.7%。

Commission officials insisted the troubling growth rates were not the fault of the EU’s austerity-led economic policies, noting that some of the countries that went through the toughest reform programmes were growing strongly, albeit from low bases.

歐盟委員會官員堅稱，增長率不如人意，原因不在於歐盟實施了以緊縮爲主的經濟政策。委員會稱，一些實施了最嚴厲改革計劃的國家增長強勁，儘管基數較低。

Ireland, which emerged from its bailout last year, is expected to grow 3.6 per cent in 2015, the fastest in the EU. Similarly Greece, a perpetual eurozone laggard, is also forecast to expand by 2.9 per cent.

去年剛退出紓困計劃的愛爾蘭2015年增長預測達到3.6%，是歐盟國家中最快的。與此類似，歐元區的老牌“差生”希臘預計也將增長2.9%。

“Fiscal consolidation is a necessity,” said Pierre Moscovici, the commission’s new economic chief. “But the question which is in front of us is how to recreate hope in the European project.”

歐盟委員會新任經濟和金融事務專員皮埃爾•莫斯科維奇(Pierre Moscovici)表示：“財政整頓十分必要。不過，我們面臨的問題是如何重建對歐洲項目的信心。”