全球第二季度減少4億個全職工作 女性受影響更大

聯合國國際勞工組織近日發出警告，新冠肺炎疫情造成的就業損失遠超先前估計，全球在今年第二季度損失了4億個全職工作，美洲形勢尤爲嚴峻。同時，新冠肺炎疫情還加劇了職場性別不平等。

The coronavirus pandemic is expected to have resulted in a 14% drop in global working hours in the second quarter of 2020, the International Labour Organization has said.

國際勞工組織近日稱，2020年第二季度，新冠肺炎疫情預計將導致全球工作時間減少14%。

The United Nations’ labor agency said this updated fall in working hours was the equivalent of 400 million full-time job losses globally in the second quarter, based on a standard 48-hour working week.

聯合國國際勞工組織稱，按每週工作48小時的標準計算，最新統計的工作時間降幅相當於第二季度全球減少4億個全職工作崗位。

This marked a “sharp increase” on the 10.7% fall in working hours, or 305 million job losses, that the ILO forecasted for that period, in its previous report on the impact of Covid-19 on the labor market, published in May.

國際勞工組織5月份發佈的關於新冠肺炎對勞動力市場影響的報告預測稱，今年第二季度全球工作時間預計減少10.7%（即3.05億個全職工作）。而最新數據與之相比大幅上升。

In this fifth edition of its “Covid-19 and the world of work” monitor, the ILO said that the Americas were the most affected region, with an estimated 18.3% drop in working hours, or 70 million full-time jobs.

在第五版“新冠肺炎與全球工作”監測報告中，國際勞工組織表示，美洲是受影響最嚴重的地區，工作時間預計減少了18.3%，即7000萬個全職工作。

The working-hour losses are calculated based on the ILO’s “nowcasting” model, which is statistical forecasting drawing on real-time economic and labor market data. It uses the fourth quarter of 2019 as the basis for falls.

工作時間損失是根據國際勞工組織的“即時預測”模型計算的，該模型利用實時經濟和勞動力市場數據進行統計預測，並與2019年第四季度做對比。

In the first quarter, the ILO calculated a 5.4% fall in working hours worldwide, equating to 155 million jobs, in comparison to the fourth quarter of last year.

據國際勞工組織計算，今年第一季度全球工作時間較去年第四季度減少5.4%，相當於1.55億個全職工作。

The ILO said there were multiple factors causing this global decline such as, shorter working hours, temporary leave — or furlough — as well as unemployment and “inactivity.”

國際勞工組織表示，造成這一數據下降的因素有很多，如工作時間縮短、臨時休假（或暫時解僱）、失業和“不活躍”等。

furlough[ˈfɜːləʊ]：n.休假；暫時解僱；放假

2020年下半年全球職場展望

The ILO’s report also outlined three different scenarios for a labor market recovery in the second half of the year.

國際勞工組織的報告還概述了今年下半年勞動力市場復甦的三種不同情景。

The baseline model projects a 4.9% decline in working hours, or 140 million job losses, compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. This scenario is assuming a rebound in economic activity according to existing forecasts, the lifting of workplace lockdown restrictions, in addition to a recovery in consumption and investment.

根據基線模型預測，與2019年第四季度相比，今年下半年全球工作時間將減少4.9%，相當於損失1.4億個全職工作。這一設想是在假定經濟活動根據現有預測出現復甦、解除工作場所封鎖限制以及消費和投資復甦的前提下得出的。

A pessimistic scenario would see an estimated 11.9% fall in working hours, or 340 million job losses. This is based on there being a second wave of coronavirus cases, prompting the return of lockdown restrictions, therefore meaning a “significantly slow recovery.”

按照悲觀的估計，全球工作時間將減少11.9%，相當於損失3.4億個全職工作。這是基於出現第二波新冠疫情，促使封鎖限制恢復，因而“恢復非常緩慢”的前提下得出的。

The optimistic model would work out to an estimated 1.2% decrease in working hours, or 34 million job cuts. This best-case scenario would be the result of workers’ activities resuming quickly, “significantly boosting aggregate demand and job creation.”

按照樂觀的估計，預計全球工作時間將減少1.2%，相當於損失3400萬個全職工作。在職員儘快復工，“從而顯著提振總需求和創造就業機會”的前提下，纔會出現這種最樂觀的情況。

加劇職場性別不平等

The ILO report also highlighted the disproportionate effect of the pandemic on female workers. It pointed out that 510 million, or 40%, of all employed women globally work in the four most hard-hit sectors by the coronavirus crisis, compared to 36.6% of men.

國際勞工組織的報告還強調說，新冠肺炎疫情對女性的影響更大。該機構指出，全球有5.1億女性（佔全體就業女性的40%）在受到新冠疫情衝擊最大的四個行業工作，而在男性中這一比例爲36.6%。

The fact that women also dominate the domestic work, health and social care sectors, has meant that they are at greater risk of infection and transmission of the virus and of losing income. Meanwhile, the distribution of unpaid care work of children, for example, has become more unequal during the pandemic, made worse by the closure of schools and care services.

女性在家務、衛生保健和社會護理部門也占主導地位，這意味着她們感染和傳播病毒以及失去收入的風險更大。與此同時，無償照料兒童等任務分配在新冠肺炎疫情期間更加不平等，學校和育兒機構的關閉使情況惡化。

The ILO said this impact on women risked undoing some of the progress on gender equality in recent decades and exacerbating work-related gender inequalities.

國際勞工組織表示，這種對女性的影響可能會破壞近幾十年來在性別平等方面取得的一些進展，並加劇職場性別不平等。