世界盃和歐洲盃哪個更好看大綱

For some American fans, the World Cup is the be-all and end-all of international soccer. There is no close second.

對有些美國球迷來說，世界盃(World Cup)是首屈一指的國際足球賽事。其他賽事都遠遠不能與之相比。

Across the Atlantic, though, many fans, soccer writers and even some players have contended that the European championships, or Euros, which began on Friday, produce better soccer than the World Cup.

不過，在大西洋對岸，很多球迷、足球撰稿人、甚至球員都認爲，週五開始的歐洲盃(the European championships)比世界盃更精彩。

The pro-Euro argument is that a lot more teams compete in the World Cup, including some from countries that have rarely done well at the international level. This can create too many lopsided games and possibly drag down the overall quality of the soccer. So while there have been many great games in the World Cup, the thinking goes, the standard of play has been lower on balance.

這一觀點的論據是參與世界盃比賽的球隊要多得多，有些國家的球隊很少在國際賽事中有上佳表現。這會造成太多一邊倒的比賽，因此可能拉低這一賽事的整體水平。所以，雖然世界盃上有很多精彩比賽，但有些人認爲，它的比賽水平總體偏低。

There are reasons for assuming this is true. The best players from around the world overwhelmingly play for European clubs, which helps bolster the standard of European players. European national teams have won four of the last five World Cups, and seven of the 10 finalists were European.

這種想法有一些根據。世界各地的優秀足球運動員大都在歐洲俱樂部踢球，這幫助提高了歐洲球員的水平。過去五屆世界盃中有四屆是歐洲國家隊奪冠，十支決賽球隊中有七支是歐洲球隊。

But is the game in fact better when the Europeans play only against one another?

但是，只有歐洲球隊參加的比賽真的更好看嗎？

Before trying to answer that, it’s worth acknowledging that there can be no definite conclusion. When played at an elite level, soccer, like art, contains so much that is unquantifiable that it defies numerical ranking and subjective opinion. Saying that Spain plays a better style of game than Argentina is akin to declaring Matisse better than Manet.

在嘗試回答這個問題之前，我必須承認，它可能沒有確定的答案。精英水平的足球賽和藝術一樣，包含着很多無法量化的東西，無法用數字排名和主觀意見解釋。說西班牙的比賽風格優於阿根廷的風格，就像是說馬蒂斯(Matisse)的畫作優於莫奈(Manet)的畫作。

And numbers struggle to capture another quality that makes a soccer game compelling — the intensity that often exists when a victory will eliminate the other team, or when two longtime rivals play each other, like Mexico and the United States, or Germany and the Netherlands.

而且數據很難反映球賽更吸引人的另一個因素——激烈的比賽往往發生在淘汰賽中或者在兩個宿敵之間，比如墨西哥和美國，或德國和荷蘭。

Still, there is now a wealth of data on soccer games, and it would be a shame not to see how far it can take us.

不過，現在關於足球比賽有大量數據，如果不去看看它們能給我們帶來什麼啓示，就挺可惜的。

Opta, a sports data firm that tracks passes, shots and other plays within games, provided the data for the past five Euros and the past five World Cups. (I have chosen to compare the World Cup with the Euros and not the Copa América, also going on now, and in which the United States is doing well, because Opta has less historical data on the Copa.)

Opta是一家體育數據公司，它統計比賽中的傳球和射門等數據。它提供了過去五屆歐洲盃和世界盃的數據（我選擇把世界盃與歐洲盃進行比較，而不是與同樣正在進行中的美洲盃[Copa América]比較——美國隊在本屆美洲盃上的表現很好——是因爲Opta關於美洲盃的歷史數據較少）。

Selecting metrics to determine quality is tough. Even so, here are six yardsticks that attempt to do that:

儘管很難選擇合適的指標來衡量質量，我還是選出了以下六個指標：

Margin of victory. A smaller margin is better with this one, because if teams win by fewer goals, the games are most likely more competitive and exciting.

比分差距。比分差距越小越好看，因爲如果獲勝球隊的進球個數只比落敗球隊多一點，那麼比賽很可能更激烈，更令人興奮。

Goals scored. Except for a few purists, we want to see goals.

進球個數。除了少數純化論者，我們都想看到進球。

Total shots. This is here because we like to see teams put themselves in a position to shoot.

射門次數。我選擇這項是因爲我們喜歡看到球隊處於射門狀態。

Successful passes. This is the bread and butter of good soccer.

成功傳球的次數。這是精彩足球的基本要素。

Successful passes in the final third of the field. The passes that matter most when attacking.

前場成功傳球的次數。這些傳球對進攻最爲重要。

And, finally, shots per possession (a period when a team has control of the ball). This matters because possession needs to be turned into an attempt on goal.

還有最後一點，每個控球時間段裏的射門次數。這一點很重要是因爲控球需要轉化爲射門。

So here’s what the numbers say: Anyone who has ever said the Euros can easily match the World Cup can give themselves a tiny pat on the back, although there is no indication that they’re significantly better.

這些數據表明：任何曾經說過歐洲盃可以與世界盃媲美的人可以稍稍得意一下，不過，也沒有數據能夠證明，它明顯勝過世界盃。

Comparing five-tournament averages for the Euros (1996 through 2012) and the World Cup (1998 through 2014) shows almost no difference on four of these measures. Passing accuracy was almost identical, with the Euros having 623 successful passes per game on average, versus 634 for the World Cup. In the Euros, 2.42 goals per game were scored, against 2.45 in the World Cup. In both competitions, there was on average 28 shots per game. The Euros had an average of 0.13 shots per possession, compared with 0.14 for the World Cup.

過去五屆歐洲盃（1996年至2012年）和世界盃（1998年至2014年）的平均數據的對比表明，這六項指標中有四項幾乎沒有差別。傳球準確率幾乎相同，歐洲盃平均每場有623次成功傳球，世界盃是634次。歐洲盃平均每場進球2.42個，世界盃是2.45個。平均每場的射門次數都是28次。歐洲盃上每個控球時間段的平均射門次數爲0.13次，世界盃是0.14次。

But the Euros look slightly stronger on two of the yardsticks. Euro games had 160 successful passes in the final third on average per game, against 151 for the World Cup. And the Euros had a narrower margin of victory, with teams winning on average by 1.23 goals, versus 1.33 goals in the World Cup.

但是在另外兩項上，歐洲盃略微勝出。歐洲盃平均每場的前場成功傳球次數爲160次，世界盃是151次。歐洲盃的比分差距較小，平均每場的比分差距是1.23，世界盃是1.33。

Comparing the most recent completed Euros, from 2012, with the 2014 World Cup makes the Euros look stronger.

把最近一次完賽的歐洲盃與世界盃相比，也就是把2012年歐洲盃與2014年世界盃相比，你會發現歐洲盃似乎更強。

The 2012 Euros had 742 successful passes per game, 10 percent more than the 2014 World Cup’s 666. When it comes to successful final-third passes, the Euros’ 188 was 18 percent higher than the World Cup’s 153. The Euros’ margin of victory in 2012 was 1.23 goals, or 16 percent narrower than 1.42 goals for the 2014 World Cup. The only yardstick that the World Cup did better on was goals, with the 2014 competition notching 2.63 goals per game, against 2.45 for the 2012 Euros.

2012年歐洲盃每場比賽有742次成功傳球，比2014年世界盃的666次高出10%。2012年歐洲盃的前場成功傳球次數是188次，比世界盃的153次高出18%。2012年歐洲盃的比分差距是1.23，比2014年世界盃的1.42低16%。2014年世界盃唯一優於2012年歐洲盃的指標是進球數——前者是2.63個，後者是2.45個。

In case Copa América fans are interested, Opta did provide data for the tournament that took place last year. But margin of victory, at 1.12 goals, was the only metric (out of our six) on which the 2015 Copa did better than both the 2014 World Cup and 2012 Euros.

考慮到美洲盃球迷可能會感興趣，所以Opta提供了去年美洲盃的數據。2015年美洲盃的比分差距爲1.12，是（六項指標中）唯一優於2014年世界盃和2012年歐洲盃的指標。

The big question now, though, is whether the quality of the soccer at the Euros is going to slip in the current and future tournaments. This year, 24 teams are competing, up from 16 teams in the previous five Euros, allowing potentially weaker teams to compete. (The World Cup has had 32 teams since 1998.)

不過，現在的一個重要問題是，今年以及未來歐洲盃的水平是否會下滑。今年有24支球隊參賽，多於之前五屆的16支，允許可能更弱的球隊參賽（世界盃從1998年開始有32支球隊參賽）。

Also, the standard of the Euros may decline for another reason: Some teams that are in third place in their starting groups can progress to the knockout stage of the competition. My colleague Sam Borden explains why that might lead to some unadventurous soccer.

另外，歐洲盃的水準可能會因爲另一個原因而下降：小組賽中排名第三的某些球隊有可能進入淘汰賽。我的同事山姆·博登(Sam Borden)解釋了這可能導致出現乏味比賽的原因。

The lesson of this exercise? There isn’t enough bad soccer in the international tournaments to discredit them. So, go ahead, watch them all.

這項運動的教訓是什麼？這些國際賽事中沒有哪場比賽糟糕到敗壞賽事聲譽的地步。所以，什麼也別管了，每場比賽都看吧。