暢想十年後的中國

"We interrupt live coverage of the Mars mission launch from Dongfeng to go to Beijing for the Oscars ceremony. As viewers are no doubt aware, this is the first time the award ceremony has been held outside the US. Nominated for best films for 2024, both sequels to the 2014 films, were American Bustle and Newton's Law. But the award-winning film for 2024 is Dalian, a story based around an oil executive and his family. It claims to put the oil into romantic turmoil. Also an Oscar first this year is that robots, instead of humans, have been nominated best actor and actress. Three of the five nominated robots, and two supporting robots, were made in China. Film formats have changed from 10 years ago and have lost the plot, literally, as viewers can select their own endings. The Oscars have taken this into account, and also for the first time, are allowing viewers to select their favorites."

Not entirely beyond the realms of plausibility 10 years from now. There is little future in prediction, except for chefs making, and waiters serving, large doses of humble pie. But at the risk of indigestion, and of attracting a waiter's attention, 2024 could have some of the following ingredients.

We won't have cash. Wallets and purses will be quaint reminders of the past that we can show bemused children. No need for notes and coins, as a bank's logo says: "Cash? It's a spent force".

All financial transactions will be done through smartphones, apps and embedded microchips in our wrists. No queueing to pay at tills. We pick, we go, we get scanned, money deducted.

Meanwhile back on the ranch, farms have also undergone profound change. Most of the megacities in China are self-sustaining with farms now located vertically floor on floor. Our food is grown in skyscrapers, energized by solar and wind power.

Life expectancy has soared and reaching 100, with full faculties, is a realistic goal. Cycling has witnessed a resurgence and China will establish the world's first fully green city, with no fossil fuel used for transport or heating and only bikes allowed on the road. Some cities are considering banning all vehicles, except for essential public services.

The economy is the world's biggest, but that was expected 10 years ago. What was not expected was the massive change in education. A new international test for 18 and 19-year-olds has been agreed by the world's leading universities, of which three of the top eight are in China. The new test, mandatory for those going to university, asks questions on a global curriculum based on food, language, computing, math and the IHSK. This is the international version of the HSK, a language exam for foreigners in China, and 15 million students will sit it across the globe in 2024.

Passing IHSK grade 4 is a prerequisite for most jobs, outside of China. Global employers demand that their workers know the language of their main customers. The top selling item of 2024? An earpiece that provides simultaneous language translation (IHSK students are not allowed to wear one for their test).

An estimated 921 million people, or 65 percent of China's population, will live in cities in 2024, which is about 2.5 times the size of the US population.

Driver-less cars are nothing new, but what is really grabbing the public's imagination are transport drones, that can accommodate up to 20 passengers, and fly in sky corridors at two-minute intervals. The initial corridor was built between Beijing and Shanghai.

In economic affairs, currency parity parties are being organized in Washington and Beijing as the WTO supported China's claim that the US was guilty of currency manipulation. The dollar has fallen 28 percent in 12 months.

Not all the changes will be on Earth. About 10,000 people have already gone into near orbit as space tourists, and some have already spent two weeks on China's moon base. TV sets have gone, replaced by special spectacles which can be adjusted for old-fashioned cinema, living room or rainforest setting. This means that viewers, apart from choosing the ending, can select the backdrop, for their viewing pleasure. The Spring Gala for 2024 was held in the US, part of the global TV rights package that saw the Oscars in Beijing.

The waiter is hovering.

"And how exactly would you like your humble pie, sir? Possibly with a side dish of apologetic vegetables or with a glass of wine. May I suggest a suitably embarrassed red."“感謝朋友們關注酒泉衛星發射中心火星探測器發射的實況轉播，現在我們將畫面轉向北京，關注奧斯卡典禮。觀衆們不要感到驚訝，這是奧斯卡頒獎典禮第一次走出美國。2024年度最佳影片的桂冠由《大連》摘得，影片講述了一個石油大亨和他的家庭的故事，片中事業與愛情的主題相互雜糅。影片《美國騙局》和《牛頓定律》獲得本屆奧斯卡最佳影片的提名，兩部影片都是2014年上映影片的續集。值得一提的是，本屆奧斯卡中提名的最佳男女演員中出現了機器人。而且，男女主角提名中，五個機器人中有三個是中國製造，男女配角提名中，有兩個機器人出自中國。如今，電影已經不同於十年前了，人們可以設計情節，自由選定故事結局，奧斯卡也首次將此納入考慮，允許觀衆選擇自己喜愛的故事結尾。”這也許就是十年後的生活景象。

正在飯館的我其實也沒什麼可想的，除了廚師的做法，服務員的態度和肉餅的大小。不過我還是冒着消化不良的風險，不理會服務員，暢想2024。

經濟領域變革

在經濟事務中，世界貿易組織同意中國看法，認爲美元利用貨幣壟斷操縱貨幣，所以宣佈貨幣平價將由中國和美國共同決定。消息一出，美元在12個月內跌了28個百分點。

此外，交易方式發生改變，紙幣和硬幣都已成過往，錢包成爲了“古董”，只是有時拿出來給小孩看看，銀行甚至打出口號：現金已經過時！所有的金融交易將會在手機應用和手腕上的嵌入式芯片上完成，人們也不需要在收銀臺前排隊，只要通過掃描就能完成交易，帶走物品。

城市環境變化

到2024年，中國將有9.21億人居住在城市，佔國家總人口的65%，這一數字是美國人口的2.5倍。

無人駕駛的汽車已司空見慣，真正新鮮的將是無人駕駛的飛機。機可容納20名乘客，在空中通道中飛行，兩家飛機間間隔2分鐘。第一個空中通道是已建成的北京上海航線。

農民的生活也發生了改變，中國的大城市將應用垂直農業，整個城市將實現農業自給自足。農民將農產品一層層種植在高樓大廈中，充分利用太陽能、風能等能源。

預期壽命延長

預期壽命將達100歲，而且人們完全有能力活到100歲。在中國自行車將再一次成爲主流，中國將建立世界上第一個“環保城市”，路面僅允許自行車通行，交通和取暖都不準使用化石燃料。此外，一些城市將考慮僅保留公共交通，禁止其他車輛通行。

教育模式改變

人們在十年前已預測中國將成爲世界第一大經濟體，然而卻爲考慮到教育領域的變化。世界頂級的八所大學認定一項新測驗測試高中畢業生，中國有三所大學參與其中。報考大學的高中畢業生必須參加測試，測試內容爲食品、語言、計算機、數學、國際漢語等諸多內容，國際漢語測試是漢語水平測試的國際版，原本的考試針對境內的母語非漢語人士，而現在的國際版將覆蓋全球，2024年，世界將有1500萬人參加測試。國際漢語水平四級將成爲境外多數工作的求職硬指標，因爲僱主希望自己的員工能夠了解他們主要消費者使用的語言。也許到2024年最暢銷的單品將是同聲傳譯耳機，將所有語言譯成漢語。（不過，參加國際漢語水平測試時可不能攜帶。）

改變的不僅僅發生在地球上。2024年，大約有一萬人參加了太空旅遊，去過最近的太空軌道，甚至有人在中國的月球基地呆上2周。電視機也漸漸淡出人們的視野，取而代之的一種特殊的眼鏡，能夠模擬電影院、家中客廳和雨林的背景。也就是說，觀衆不僅可以根據自己的喜好選擇結局還能夠選擇背景幕布。也許那時候2024春節聯歡晚會在美國舉辦，一些國家希望獲得中國舉辦的奧斯卡典禮的轉播權。

服務員猶豫地問道：“先生，除了肉餅需要一些佐餐嗎？加些蔬菜或是來點酒？要不來杯紅葡萄酒？”