厄爾尼諾肆虐 將成史上最熱年

Just one year after 2014 set a record as the hottest year in the historical record, 2015 is on track to beat it by a substantial margin, possibly signaling a return to a sustained period of rapid global warming.

2014年是有歷史記錄以來最熱的年份，僅僅一年後，2015年就顯示了大舉刷新記錄的趨勢，這可能預示着我們將回歸到全球氣溫持續急速上升的階段。

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the American agency that tracks worldwide temperatures, announced Wednesday that last month had been the hottest September on record, and that the January-to-September period had also been the hottest since 1880. Scientists say it is now all but certain that the full year will be the hottest on record, too.

美國國家海洋與大氣管理局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)對全球氣溫進行了追蹤，該機構本週三宣佈，自1880年有記錄以來，上個月是最熱的9月，今年1月到9月也比所有往年同期更熱，科學家說，現在幾乎可以肯定，今年全年將創下最熱的新紀錄。

That means that delegates to a global climate conference scheduled for Paris in early December will almost certainly be convening at a time when climate-related disasters are unfolding around the world, putting them under greater pressure to reach an ambitious deal to limit future emissions and slow the temperature increase.

這意味着，全球氣候會議今年12月初在巴黎召開期間，與氣候有關的災害幾乎肯定正在世界各地徐徐展開，這將讓代表們面臨更大的壓力，要達成一項雄心勃勃的協議，以限制未來的溫室氣體排放，減緩溫度上升的速度。

The immediate cause of the record-breaking warmth is a strong El weather pattern, in which the ocean releases immense amounts of heat into the atmosphere. But temperatures this year are running far ahead of those during the last strong El , in 1997 and 1998, and scientists said the record heat would not have occurred without an underlying trend of warming caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases.

氣溫上升破紀錄的直接原因，是出現了強烈的厄爾尼諾氣候特徵，海洋把大量熱量釋放到大氣中。上一次強烈的厄爾尼諾現象出現在1997年和1998年，但今年的氣溫遠高於那次，科學家表示，如果沒有人類排放溫室氣體造成的變暖趨勢，這種創紀錄的高溫原本不會出現。

“We have no reason at this point to think that El itself is responding to the forcing from greenhouse gases,” said Richard Seager, a climate scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University. “You can think of them as independent and adding to each other.”

“目前我們沒有理由認爲，厄爾尼諾現象本身是在對溫室氣體的排放做出反應，”哥倫比亞大學(Columbia University)拉蒙特-多爾蒂地球觀測中心(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory)的氣候專家理查德·西格(Richard Seager)說。“你可以把它們看作兩個獨立因素，互相疊加。”

The El phenomenon and the accompanying heat are already roiling weather patterns worldwide, likely contributing to dry weather and forest fires in Indonesia, to an incipient drought in Australia, and to a developing food emergency across parts of Africa, including a severe drought in Ethiopia. Those effects are likely to intensify in coming months.

厄爾尼諾現象及其帶來的熱度，已經對世界各地的天氣規律產生了影響，比如印尼出現乾旱，發生了森林火災，澳大利亞進入早期乾旱階段，在非洲的部分地區，食品緊張狀況正在惡化，埃塞俄比亞發生了嚴重旱災。這些問題可能會在未來幾個月內加劇。

Past patterns suggest that El will send unusual amounts of rain and snow to the American Southwest and to California, offering some relief for that parched state but also precipitating floods and mudslides. The California effects are likely to be strongest in the latter part of the winter, experts said.

過去的規律表明，厄爾尼諾現象將給美國西南部和加州帶來不同尋常的大量雨雪，在一定程度上緩解該州的炎熱狀況，但也會引發洪水和泥石流。專家說，加州在冬末期間受到的影響可能會最大。

Earlier this year, the global warmth contributed to a spring heat wave in India and Pakistan that killed many people, possibly several thousand, with temperatures hitting 118 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of India. The effects on the natural world have been severe as well, with extreme ocean temperatures bleaching coral reefs around the world, and many of them likely to suffer lasting damage.

今年早些時候，在全球氣溫上升的影響下，印度和巴基斯坦遭受熱浪襲擊，喪生人數可能高達幾千，在印度部分地區，氣溫創下118華氏度（約48攝氏度）的記錄。自然界遭受的影響也同樣嚴重，極端海洋溫度令世界各地的珊瑚礁發生白化現象，其中很多可能受到了持久性的損害。

Forecasters have been issuing warnings about a strong El for many months. The coming few months will test whether governments, and the global relief agencies that support poor countries, have prepared, particularly to provide food relief for hard-hit regions.

天氣預測者數月來一直髮布警告稱，將會出現強烈的厄爾尼諾現象。未來幾個月將會是一段考驗期，考驗政府及支持貧窮國家的全球救援機構是否已經做好準備，特別是爲受災嚴重的地方提供糧食救濟。

“The warning is out,” Dr. Seager said. “The world has had time to plan for this.”

“已經發出了警告，”西格博士說。“全球有時間做計劃。”

Though worldwide in scope, El originates in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, when normal weather patterns shift in a way that allows the ocean to release large amounts of stored-up heat into the atmosphere. That perturbs atmospheric waves that can travel thousands of miles, redistributing heat and moisture around the globe.

儘管範圍涉及全球，厄爾尼諾現象始於熱帶東太平洋，正常的天氣規律發生轉變，使得海洋向空氣中釋放大量儲存熱量。這擾亂了能夠傳播數千英里的大氣波動，在全球重新分配熱量和水分。

The effects can be profound, with some research even suggesting that civil wars become more likely in tropical countries when they are under stress from an El .

影響可能非常深遠，一些研究甚至指出，熱帶國家受到厄爾尼諾現象帶來的壓力時，更可能爆發內戰。

The World Food Program, a United Nations relief agency, is already preparing for larger operations across Africa, and appealing for donations. Harvests are down across large swaths of that huge continent, and the number of people going hungry in Ethiopia is likely to be in the millions in coming months, relief groups have estimated.

聯合國救援機構世界糧食計劃署(World Food Program)已經準備在非洲開展更大規模的行動，並呼籲大家捐款。據救援組織估計，非洲大陸大部分區域的收成有所下降，未來幾個月，埃塞爾比亞的飢餓人口可能達到數百萬。