研究稱中國近三成年輕男性將死於吸菸

Chinese men now smoke one-third of all the world’s cigarettes, and a third of all young men in China are doomed to eventually die from the habit, scientists in China and Britain have concluded.

中英兩國的科學家推斷，眼下中國男性抽的香菸數量佔全世界的三分之一，且中國三分之一的年輕男性註定終究會死於吸菸這個習慣。

Their study, published last week in The Lancet, estimated that two-thirds of all males in China smoked, more were still taking up the habit and more were starting as teenagers, which adds risk.

上週，他們的研究論文發表在了《柳葉刀》(The Lancet)上。文章估計，中國三分之二的男性吸菸，此外還有更多人正在沾染吸菸的習慣，從十幾歲就開始吸菸的人也增多了。從十幾歲就開始吸菸會加劇健康風險。

With population growth stagnant, the number of men 60 or older is expected to double by 2030, and the number dying of smoking-related ailments each year will triple, hitting three million a year by 2050.

隨着人口增長停滯，到2030年，60歲或以上的男性人數預計會翻一番，而死於和吸菸有關的疾病的人數每年都會增加兩倍，並在2050年達到每年300萬。

More smokers are stopping by choice, the study found, but still only 9 percent did so.

研究發現，選擇戒菸的吸菸者增加了，但依然只有9%的人戒菸。

By contrast, smoking rates among women in China have dropped sharply; about 10 percent of older women smoke, but only about 1 percent of middle-aged women do. However, another recent study detected rapid increases among teenage girls in some regions.

相比之下，中國女性吸菸者的比例顯著下降。年紀較大的女性中，大約10%的人吸菸，但在中年女性中，吸菸者僅佔大約1%。然而，最近的另一項研究發現，部分地區十幾歲的女孩中吸菸者人數增加迅速。

Before China achieved prosperity, the Lancet study said, smokers typically started at age 25, more smoked pipes and many could not afford multiple cigarettes every day.

《柳葉刀》上的文章稱，中國經濟繁榮之前，吸菸者通常是從25歲開始的，並且抽菸斗的人更多，很多人負擔不起每天吸好幾根菸。

The study estimated future smoking-related deaths from many causes, including lung cancer, obstructive pulmonary Disease, stroke, heart failure and other cancers. Lung disease rates are already high in China, even among nonsmokers, owing to urban air pollution and to indoor wood fires used by the rural poor.

文章預計，未來和吸菸有關的死因會有很多，包括肺癌、阻塞性肺病、中風、心力衰竭和其他癌症。在中國，因爲城市的空氣污染和農村地區貧困人口在室內燒柴，即便是在不吸菸的人羣中，肺病的發病率也已經相當高了。

The study was led by scientists from China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and the University of Oxford.

領導該研究的科學家來自中國疾病預防控制中心、中國醫學科學院和牛津大學。

Antismoking efforts in China face a difficult political situation: The central government has a monopoly through the Chinese National Tobacco Corporation, and more than 7 percent of government revenue comes from it.

中國的禁菸行動面臨困難的政治形勢，中央政府通過中國菸草總公司實行菸草專賣，超過7%的政府收入來自該公司。

According to an editorial accompanying the study, myths about smoking persist in China: that Asians are less susceptible to its dangers, that it is an ancient Chinese tradition and that quitting is easy.

與該論文一同發表的一篇評論文章稱，在中國，有關吸菸的謬論經久不衰，如亞洲人不那麼容易受吸菸的危害、吸菸是中國的古老傳統，以及戒菸很容易。