雙語達人:免費短信應用開天闢地,傳統短信業務來日無多

It's been said before, but it's now official: SMS texting's days are numbered. The culprit? Messaging apps like Apple (AAPL) iMessage and WhatsApp. According to Switzerland-based firm Informa, 2012 marked the first year mobile users sent more messages over these kinds of apps than traditional text. By next year, the difference will be vast: 50 billion messages tapped out by way of chat apps versus just 21 billion texts.

不是危言聳聽，我們可以肯定地說，短信已經來日無多。罪魁禍首是誰？蘋果（Apple）iMessage以及WhatsApp等一大票應用程序。根據瑞士調研公司Informa的數據，用戶通過應用程序發送的即時信息數量在2012年首次超過了傳統短信。兩者差距在2013年將進一步擴大：通過應用程序發送的消息數將超過500億條，而傳統短信數只有210億條。

Though carriers like AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) have long since offered cell phone plans with unlimited texts for a premium, messaging apps offer a better alternative in many cases, often for free. Own an iPhone? iMessaging transmits faster and offers the added optional benefit of letting users see when their message has been read. Launched in 2009, WhatsApp works on Apple, Google (GOOG) Android, Windows (MSFT) Phone and BlackBerry (BBRY) devices. The app is so popular, WhatsApp CEO Jan Koum revealed earlier this month it has more users than Twitter, which reported 200 million-plus members last December. And because Facebook (FB) and its messaging service are so deeply intertwined, its mobile messaging platform benefits from a built-in membership 1 billion-strong.

雖然美國電話電報公司（AT&T）和威瑞森（Verizon）等運營商很早就推出了可無限量發送短信的高價手機話費套餐，但在很多情況下，短信應用程序的優勢仍然相當明顯，而且它們大都是免費的。假如擁有一部iPhone，它的iMessage發送速度更快而且用戶能知道對方什麼時候閱讀了信息。目前大熱的WhatsApp發佈於2009年，支持蘋果、谷歌（Google）Android、Windows Phone和黑莓（BlackBerry）等多個平臺。首席執行官楊·庫姆上月早些時候透露，WhatsApp的用戶數已趕超Twitter，而後者早在去年12月就號稱用戶數已經突破了2億。至於Facebook，由於它的短消息服務和Facebook平臺關係緊密，所以Facebook的移動短信業務擁有數量驚人的10億用戶！

Given the popularity, convenience, and cost savings of free services, it seems inevitable text messaging should take a hit. That's bad news for mobile carriers, who pad their bottom lines with the profits from unlimited text plans. According to a recent study by London-based research firm Ovum, the rise of messaging apps will cost them $32.6 billion of lost revenue in 2013 and as much as $86 billion come 2020.

大受歡迎、簡單便捷、不花一分錢，看來傳統短信業務的衰退已經不可避免。這對於移動運營商來說可謂噩耗，因爲它們恰恰就是靠來自無限量短信套餐的利潤來充實淨收益。來自倫敦的調研機構Ovum最近研究指出，高速發展的短信應用在2013年將吞噬掉運營商326億美元營收，而到2020年，這個數字更將高達860億美元。

Not everyone is convinced, however, that SMS texting is on life support. "Millions of smart phone devices are being activated daily and connecting to new app services. That means there is room for both messaging platforms," explains Arjun Sethi, co-founder of MessageMe, a chat app that lets users also share photos, doodles, songs, videos, and their location. With $1.9 million in funding from backers like Andreessen Horowitz, Greylock, and Google Ventures, MessageMe rolled out last month and picked up 1 million users after just one week.

不過，並不是所有人都認爲傳統短信業務已奄奄一息。MessageMe聯合創始人阿均·賽思說：“每天有成百上千萬的智能手機被激活，聯入新的應用服務。它意味着兩種短信平臺都有生存空間。”MessageMe也是一款聊天應用，用戶能分享圖片、塗鴉、歌曲、視頻和位置信息。它從安德森·霍洛維茨基金（Andreessen Horowitz）、格雷洛克基金（Greylock）和谷歌投資（Google Ventures）等公司獲得了190萬美元投資。MessageMe自3月發佈以來，僅用了短短一週的時間就發展了100多萬用戶。

So while text messaging may not disappear entirely, it means, just like the decline of voice usage, that it won't be the dominant form of communication it used to be.

所以，即便短信業務不會完全消失，它也會像語音業務一樣不斷萎縮，再也找不回當年移動通信時代的霸主地位。