新興經濟體的前景暗淡 不應誇大世界經濟放緩

Are we to believe that slower growth in the world economy is here to stay? Christine Lagarde of the International Monetary Fund thinks so; “the new mediocre” is the managing director’s disheartening term for what she sees as the new normal. The worsening forecasts published in successive issues of the World Economic Outlooksupport her view (see charts). Significantly, while the performance of high-income economies has been poor, especially in the eurozone, in the medium-term it is the emerging economies whose prospects appear bleakest.

我們要相信當前世界經濟增長放緩的態勢將延續下去嗎？國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)是這麼認爲的；拉加德用令人沮喪的詞語“新平庸”(new mediocre)描述她眼中的新常態。《世界經濟展望報告》一期比一期悲觀的預測支持了她的觀點（見下圖）。重要的是，儘管高收入經濟體、尤其是歐元區高收入經濟體表現疲軟，但就中期而言，新興經濟體的前景似乎最爲暗淡。

Yet disappointments need to be kept in proportion. If average annual growth of emerging economies were to remain over 5 per cent, their output would double every 14 years. This would mean rapid increases in the standards of living of a huge proportion of humanity. An additional source of good cheer is that the economies of emerging Asia are expected to achieve growth of 6.5 per cent this year and 6.6 per cent in 2015. This is no small matter, since emerging Asia contains half of humanity. The IMF has made no downgrade of its forecasts for emerging Asia since last April. In addition, the second-fastest growing region is sub-Saharan Africa. Its growth is forecast to be 5.1 per cent this year and 5.8 per cent in 2015. Since these two regions contain nearly all of the world’s poorest people, this performance is of far wider human significance than are the disappointments elsewhere.

不過也無需過度失望。如果新興經濟體年均增長率保持在5%以上，其產出值每14年就會翻一番。這意味着，全球佔相當大比例的人口的生活水平將有大幅提高。另一個令人鼓舞的消息是，亞洲新興經濟體今年增速預計爲6.5%，2015年爲6.6%。這不是小事，因爲亞洲新興經濟體的人口數量佔到全球總人口的一半。自4月以來，IMF一直沒有下調過其對亞洲新興經濟體的增長預期。此外，增速第二快的地區是撒哈拉以南非洲地區。該地區今年增速預計爲5.1%，2015年爲5.8%。由於這兩大地區的赤貧人口占到全球赤貧人口總量的絕大部分，上述增速對全球人口的重要意義遠超過其他地區表現疲軟的影響。

The worry, however, is that the downgrades might continue into the more distant future. One reason for believing this will not be the case is the scale of recent disappointments. The Russian economy, for example, is stagnant. Performance of the Latin America and Caribbean economies is little better, with growth forecast at 1.3 per cent this year and 2.2 per cent in 2015. It is always possible for these economies to do still worse: Vladimir Putin’s embrace of a hostile relationship with the west may make that quite likely for Russia. But substantial upside potential also exists.

然而，令人擔心的是，不斷下調增長預測的現象可能延續到更遙遠的未來。一個讓人認爲不會出現這種情況的理由是近期某些地區讓人失望的程度。例如，俄羅斯經濟陷入了停滯。拉美和加勒比地區經濟體不比俄羅斯強太多，今年增長預期爲1.3%，2015年爲2.2%。這些經濟體表現進一步惡化的可能性始終存在：弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)寧願與西方保持敵對關係，很可能令俄羅斯經濟變得更糟。但這些經濟體也存在着不小的上行潛力。

The trouble is that the IMF’s medium-term forecasts already assume such a rebound in emerging economies. It fears that this hoped-for rebound might not occur, because of a “lack of action on structural constraints . . . , a tightening of global financial conditions, a slow pace of recovery in advanced economies or any combination of these factors”.

問題是，IMF的中期展望已經假定了新興經濟體會出現此等反彈。IMF擔心，鑑於“未能採取行動解決結構性約束……全球金融環境收緊、發達經濟體復甦緩慢，或者這些因素任何幾條的組合”，預期中的反彈或許不會發生。

The IMF adds that China’s economy might suffer a bigger slowdown than now assumed. This would probably be due not to a financial crisis (which should be avoided), but a failure to replace the demand lost when unsustainable credit booms subside. This, after all, is what happened to the high-income countries after their credit-driven growth came to a halt seven years or so ago.

IMF補充稱，中國經濟放緩可能超過現在人們所以爲的程度。其原因很可能不是一場金融危機（應當可以避免），而是當不可持續的信貸繁榮退潮時，失去的需求無法得到替代。別忘了，大約7年前，當信貸驅動的增長停滯時，高收入國家便發生了此種情況。

The WEO stresses the medium-term risk s of low potential growth and “secular stagnation” in high-income economies. The former means weak growth of supply. The latter means structural constraints on demand, including a rapid contraction of credit in vulnerable countries. (See chart.) A feedback relationship exists between the two: weak growth in demand saps confidence and damps innovation and investment. When growth is expected to be slow, private consumption and investment falter. Such a spiral is to be seen in the eurozone, where real demand is 5 per cent below its pre-crisis peak and deflationary risks are high. Ultra-low inflation, let alone deflation, exacerbates the burden of debt.

《世界經濟展望報告》強調了高收入經濟體在中期內面臨潛在增長率過低和“持續停滯”的風險。前一風險意味着供給增長疲弱。後一風險意味着需求的結構性約束，包括脆弱國家信貸急劇收縮（見下圖）。這兩者之間存在一種反饋關係：需求增長弱會降低信心，壓抑創新與投資。當增長預計會放緩時，私人消費和投資就會停滯不前。歐元區即將看到這一螺旋式下降，那裏實際需求比危機前峯值低5%，通縮風險很高。通脹率超低會加劇債務負擔，通縮就更不用提了。

In the US, where balance sheets are no longer so constrained and there has been at least modest growth since 2009, the economy might now start to accelerate. Among the other drivers of such growth would be cheap energy, a pick-up in investment and a recovery in household formation, which has been running at about half its pre-crisis levels. This would be unlikely to produce the kind of untoward jump in inflation that would force the Fed to apply the brakes. With the world economy weakening and oil prices falling, inflation should not be a real danger. The Fed should tighten slowly — and this is unlikely to create problems for economies outside the US.

在美國，資產負債表不再面臨極大約束，經濟自2009年以來起碼實現了小幅增長。如今，美國經濟可能要開始加速了。其他推動增長的因素還將包括：廉價的能源、投資增加以及新家庭組建速度的回升——該速度一直處於危機前水平的大約一半。這不太可能導致通脹意外大幅上升，那種情況將迫使美聯儲(Fed)踩下剎車。由於世界經濟疲弱、油價下跌，通脹應該不會成爲重大風險。美聯儲應會緩緩地收緊政策——這不太可能給美國以外的經濟體帶來麻煩。

The position of the eurozone is, alas, different. Germany, its most creditworthy country, remains dependent on external demand. It is also largely opposed to the unconventional monetary policies that might stimulate that demand. It is even more opposed to potent fiscal policies, either at home or across the eurozone. It hopes that the magic of “structural reform” will awaken the animal spirits – although its own structural reforms in the past decade awakened no such spirits at home.

唉，歐元區的處境則不同於美國。歐元區信譽最可靠的國家德國，仍依賴於外部需求。該國也大體上反對實施可能刺激需求的非常規貨幣政策。德國更反對實施強有力的財政政策，無論在國內還是歐元區。德國希望，“結構性改革”的魔力將喚醒動物精神——儘管過去10年裏，其結構性改革在國內沒能喚醒此種動物精神。

At Berlin’s insistence, the eurozone has turned into a battleground for meagre scraps of demand, under the rubric of “competitiveness”. This inability to move beyond the intellectual framework of a small open economy to a continental one is a tragedy.

由於柏林方面的堅持，歐元區已變成了以“競爭力”之名爭奪本來很疲弱的需求的戰場。德國不能突破一個小型開放經濟體的觀念框架，採納一種適用於一個大陸經濟體的思維模式，這是很可悲的。

A renewal of the crisis is possible, given the risk that bond yields – now subdued – will again begin to climb.

鑑於存在債券收益率（目前很低）將開始攀升的風險，危機有可能會捲土重來。

It is important not to exaggerate the story of slowdown in the world economy. Yet it is also vital to avoid a progressive downward slide in growth. To address this risk, it is necessary to launch well-crafted reforms in both emerging and high-income economies. In the latter, the biggest challenges are inside the eurozone, where the failures to craft a balanced economic strategy remain both egregious and very dangerous. As the IMF argues, there is also a powerful argument for more public investment in infrastructure. This could pay for itself and so lower rather than raise public debt, in today’s circumstances of weak growth and ultra-low real interest rates.

不誇大世界經濟放緩態勢很重要，但避免增長持續滑坡也至關重要。爲了化解這一風險，新興和發達經濟體都需要啓動精心籌劃的改革。對後者而言，最大的挑戰在於歐元區內部，若不能制定出一項平衡的經濟戰略，仍是極其糟糕和非常危險的。此外，正如IMF所主張的，增加基礎設施公共投資的理由很充分。在增長疲弱和實際利率超低的當今環境下，這麼做本身就會帶來回報，可以降低而不是提高公共債務水平。

It is vital to craft strategies for growth that neither ignore demand constraints nor rely on credit booms. Can that be done? Yes. Will it be done? I doubt it.

制定既不忽視需求約束、又不依賴信貸繁榮的增長戰略很重要。這一點有可能做到嗎？有。但會實現嗎？我很懷疑。