腦洞大開 新賽季的大膽預測

Golden State wins 70 games

金州贏得70場比賽

I know all the reasons this shouldn't happen: malaise; exhaustion from their preseason China trip; Steve Kerr squeezing in several DNP-Rests for his stars; the Western Conference gauntlet; the proverbial bull's-eye on the back.

我知道所有下面的這些原因可能都會導致這不會發生：傷病，中國賽的路途疲憊；史蒂夫科爾爲明星球員擠壓出輪休場次；西部鏖戰；聯盟的衆矢之的

But this team is just so damned good. It went 67-15 and came within a Steph Curry mustache whisker of finishing first in both points scored and allowed per possession — and it should somehow be better. It even enjoys continuity after working out the kinks with Kevin Durant.

但是這支球隊如此的出色。在留有鬍子的庫裏的帶領下拿下67勝15負的戰績，並且每回合得分和限制對手得分都處在第一位——而且他們本應該能做的更好。同時在杜蘭特的發揮下他們將能保持這一勢頭。

The Warriors are deeper now — deep enough to overcome Kerr sitting one star in almost any game, save for maybe a few road back-to-backs. Nick Young is a decent defender when he tries, and he can't even comprehend yet how easy his life is about to be on offense. Omri Casspi, all sneaky cuts and Curry-range bombs, is built to play for this team.

現在的勇士陣容變得更加深厚，深厚到足以讓科爾幾乎每場比賽都能輪休一名明星球員，爲客場的背靠背節省體力。如果盡力的話，尼克楊將會是一個不錯的防守者，而且他還沒有意識到他在進攻端是多麼的出色。卡斯比的空切和庫裏式的三分遠程炸彈和這隻球隊完美契合。

Three-time NBA Finalists are typically primed for major age-related regression. Not this bunch. Kerr can issue all the take-it-easy edicts he likes; his players are too competitive to help themselves. It's hard to find any game in which they would reasonably be considered an underdog.

通常三次總決賽之旅後，就會由於年齡問題而衰退，但這卻不適用於勇士這幫球員。科爾可以隨心所欲的施展他的戰術。他的球員如此有競爭力以至於很難在每場比賽中被認爲處於劣勢。

Houston finishes second in the West

休斯敦是西部第二的球隊

The safe bet is the Spurs. They just win, and they are bringing back almost the same team once Tony Parker returns.

安全點的賭注是馬刺隊。因爲他們剛剛贏了，而且一旦託尼帕克迴歸，他們就保持了和去年一樣的陣容。

The sexy bet is Oklahoma City. Before acquiring Carmelo Anthony, the Thunder's path to 60 wins was clear: Paul George would slither around as the slightly less wealthy man's Kevin Durant, and their defense would smother people. They had an identity — a mix of new Thunder and old Thunder.

感性點的賭注是俄克拉荷馬雷霆隊。在得到卡梅倫安東尼之前，他們的60勝之路就已清晰：保羅喬治僅僅比凱文杜蘭特稍加遜色，但是在防守端他可以讓任何人窒息。他們有一個身份——新老雷霆的混合體。

Houston will have its own superstar integration hiccups, but adding one new guy — even a slow-it-down yapper like Paul — should be smoother than adding two. Houston is deep across every position; Clint Capela and Nene Hilario form a dynamite center rotation, and the Rockets are loaded with rangy, corner-shooting wings. Ryan Anderson is roadkill in the wrong playoff matchup, but he's a dangerous regular-season weapon.

休斯敦雖然在他巨星的融合度上有點小問題，但是增加了一名新成員——甚至是速度已經變慢的保羅——應該比增加兩名能使球隊變得更加流暢。休斯敦在每個位置上都有陣容的深度。卡佩拉和內內可以組成一個強力的中鋒輪換，同時也配備了許多身長、能投底角三分的側翼球員。雖然萊恩安德森是一名在季後賽中的客場殺手，但在常規賽中依然是一個可怕的武器。

All these teams should be roaring in April. The bet here is Houston wins the most before then.

所有這些球隊都會在四月份迎來上升期，但我把賭注壓在休斯敦能比上述兩隊贏得更多的比賽上面。

Charlotte sets the all-time defensive rebounding rate record

夏洛特將會創造防守籃板率的記錄

This is just fun trivia. Only seven teams have rebounded at least 79 percent of opponent misses. All played within the past three seasons, including the past three Charlotte teams — the product of Clifford's abdication of fast-breaking in favor of having all five guys protect the glass. (Last season's Pistons snared 81.2 percent of opponent misses, the only team ever to crack the 80 percent barrier.)

這是一件趣事。歷史上只有七支球隊在對方投丟的情況下拿到至少79%的防守籃板。所有這些情況都出現在近三年，並且都包括過去三年的夏洛特黃蜂。這都是克利福德放棄快攻機會，五名球員都致力於保護籃筐的結果。（上賽季的活塞抓下了81.2%的防守籃板，也是唯一一隻打破80%防守籃板率的球隊）

Howard can still munch boards above the rim. Charlotte is already close to the upper bound of defensive rebounding. Howard will nudge them toward that theoretical limit — at least until Zeller leapfrogs him.

霍華德依然是一名 籃板怪物。夏洛特已經接近防守籃板的上限。在澤勒取代他之前，霍華德將會推動他們達到這個理論上的極限。

The Sixers join the 16 percent club

76人加入16%俱樂部

Only 77 teams have coughed the ball up on at least 16 percent of their possessions; only one of them played in the past decade. Philly approached the 15 percent mark last season, and the 76ers project as straight blunderous after handing the rock to one rookie (Markelle Fultz), one rampaging fake rookie (Ben Simmons) and a delightful superstar big man coming off one of the highest-turnover half seasons in league history.

歷史上在每百回合的比賽中，只有77支球隊的失誤率達到16%，其中只有一次出現在最近的十年中。上賽季費城在這一數據上接近15%，當76人中有一個新秀（富爾茨），一個暴走的假新秀（本西蒙斯）和一個歷史上半個賽季失誤最多的明星大個時或許會犯許多錯誤。

LeBron James leaves Cleveland again

勒布朗詹姆斯再次離開克里夫蘭

There is too much smoke, even with Russell Westbrook's mega-extension snuffing one potential superstar cabal in Los Angeles. LeBron could still go there with Paul George, though the Lakers need some high-wire cap gymnastics to open up the requisite $65 million in room. And can LeBron really chase the Warriors with George, Lonzo Ball and whatever flotsam is left after L.A. sheds money?

即使維斯特布魯克斯的超級續約合同稍稍挫敗了洛杉磯的吸引超級巨星的陰謀，但依然有許多不確定性。勒布朗依然可以和保羅喬治聯手入主洛杉磯，前提是洛杉磯要有6500萬的薪資空間。但是在球隊耗資鉅額之後在勒布朗、喬治、郎佐鮑爾再加幾個不入流的球員帶領下真的能和勇士相提並論麼？

LeBron still values winning above all else. He wants another title. He needs one to challenge Michael Jordan's GOAT status. The path there with those theoretical Lakers is uncertain.

勒布朗現在仍然視勝利高於一切。他還想再拿一個冠軍，去挑戰喬丹歷史最佳的地位。而去湖人之後，這條路將會變得更加不確定。

Put it this way: If you forced me to name which team LeBron is on next season, I'd take the Cavs by a hair over the Lakers. But if you give me Cleveland versus the field, I'm taking the field. LeBron is dominant enough to go anywhere he wants. He could tell almost literally any team, "I'm coming as long you also sign Players X and Y," and that team would make it happen.

要是這樣的話，如果你強逼我說出一個勒布朗將會在哪個球隊的名字，我會說騎士比湖人更有可能。但是如果你認爲勒布朗別無他選的話，那你就錯了。勒布朗的統治力足以讓他去任何他想去的地方。他幾乎可以告訴任何球隊“如果你把球員X和球員Y籤來的話，我就去你們球隊”，那麼這隻球隊就會讓他成真。

The eight playoff teams in the Eastern Conference are... Cleveland, Boston, Toronto, Washington, Milwaukee, Charlotte, Miami and Philadelphia.

東部八強的球隊是：克里夫蘭、波士頓、多倫多、華盛頓、密爾沃基、夏洛特、邁阿密和費城

The eight playoff teams in the Western Conference are... Golden State, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Houston, Denver, Minnesota, Portland, Clippers.

西部八強的球隊是：金州、聖安東尼奧、俄克拉荷馬、丹佛、明尼蘇達、波特蘭和快船。

At least one coach is fired by Christmas

至少有一個教練在聖誕節前會被裁

I'm not going to name names, because that's unpleasant. Our Era of Coaching Good Feelings is about to end. There are a bunch of volatile middle-of-the-road teams facing high expectations, and at least a couple will have fallen short by the time the calendar flips to 2018.

我不會說出名字，這會讓人不高興。但是執教靠培養好感情的時代已經結束。有許多正在建設中的球隊被賦予很高的期待，而它們中的至少有幾個到2018年時會令人失望。

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