夏天在即,這七個人能拿下大合同嗎?

The last month of the NBA regular season is intriguing on two fronts. Most of the headlines will focus on teams jockeying for playoff position and the battle for the final seed in both conferences, but the home stretch isn’t just about who will hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June. The next few weeks will also provide a primer for the summer, with soon-to-be free agents on display for all 30 teams to see.

NBA常規賽進入最後一個月，有意思的是，每年到這時候都會出現兩個陣營——東西部冠軍最後爭奪啦，哪個隊季後賽席位爭奪處於領先位置啦，大多數頭條都被這兩部分話題佔領。但是臨近賽季末尾可不要只關注哪支球隊會在六月奪冠，各隊在休賽期都會有球員合同到期，未來幾周將爲今夏的交易市場定下基調。

The summer of 2016 seemed to mark the peak of spending for NBA teams. A massive revenue increase for the league resulted in a $24 million cap spike, bringing the league’s salary cap from $70 million to more than $94 million. And with all that extra money, players cashed in, raking in deals that were once unheard of.

2016年夏天似乎到了球隊花費的巔峯，隨着各支隊伍收入的大幅增加，聯盟的工資帽也水漲船高，一下漲了2400萬（從去年7000萬上漲到9400萬）。多出來的錢自然流向了球員手中，所以在交易市場上我們見到了無多聞所未聞的大合同。

There were max deals given to stars like Mike Conley (five years $153million) and DeMar DeRozan (five years $139 million), but even more astounding were the contracts shelled out for players previously mired in the league’s middle class. Evan Turner snagged $70 million from Portland despite shooting 24% from three-point range in 2015-16, and Timofey Mozgov earned $16 million per year from the Lakers after Los Angeles struck out with the off-season's most-prized free agents.

明星的鉅額合同有邁克-康利的5年1億5300萬，德馬爾-德羅讚的5年1億3900萬。但更爲驚人的是許多聯盟中深陷泥潭的中游球員也得到了一紙肥約。埃文-特納2015-16賽季三分命中率僅爲24%，卻得到開拓者7000萬的大合同；隨着聯盟第一高薪科比退役，湖人爲新援季莫費-莫茲戈夫提供的合同每年金額達到1600萬。

This summer will see another increase in the cap, jumping to $102 million. The luxury-tax line will settle around $122 million. And with a number of teams projected to have significant cap space once again, the final month of the regular season provides a chance for players around the league to stand out in the eyes of league executives.

可以預見今夏的工資帽會再次上漲，達到1.02億美金，同時奢侈線也將升至1.22億，這使得大量球隊又一次得到了充裕的薪金空間。

Here are seven players poised to earn an increased payday if they shine through the rest of the regular season. (All stats and records through Mar. 14）

文章中我們會提到7名球員，如果他們可以在餘下的常規賽表現優異，大合同就在向他們招手。（所有數據都截止至3月14日）。

Derrick Rose New York Knicks

德里克-羅斯，紐約尼克斯

2016–17 stats: 17.8 ppg(Points Per Game), 4.4 apg, 16.4 PER Contract prototype: Evan Fournier: 5 years, $85 million 

2016-2017賽季數據：17.8分（每場得分），4.4籃板，PER值16.4。合同模板：埃文-富尼耶，5年8500萬

It’s evident that Rose won’t ever return to his MVP form, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be able to earn big dollars this summer. Rose has played in more than 50 games for three straight seasons, averaging 17.3 points per game in that span. He’s shown flashes of his former self, and is still a consistent threat to attack the rim.

顯而易見羅斯再也回不到當初MVP的水準了，但他依然可以在今夏追求大合同。過去三個賽季羅斯的出場數都在50場以上，這期間場均可以得到17.3分。偶爾的閃光依稀看到他往日的模樣，在衝擊籃框方面，羅斯依舊可以提供穩定的進攻威脅。

Rose clearly believes he’s worth a Conley-level deal come July. It was reported in January that Rose will be seeking a five-year, $150 million deal this summer, which would encompass nearly all of New York’s cap space should they choose to re-sign him.

羅斯堅信自己在今年7月也值得一份康利水平的頂薪。據一月份的報道，羅斯今夏準備尋求一份5年1億5000萬的合同，這意味着尼克斯如果準備重籤羅斯，幾乎會用盡球隊所有的薪金空間。

As of now it seems Rose is over-inflating his value. He doesn’t shoot well from behind the arc—just 22%—and he doesn’t get to the foul line. He’s simply not efficient enough of a scorer at this point in his career to rake in that kind of money.

現在看來羅斯還是高估了自己的價值。他外線的三分命中率僅有22%，他同時也不能頻繁的造犯規。在生涯這個時期，羅斯已經不再是一名高效的得分手，他又怎能索取那樣的合同呢？

There are enough teams around the league with holes at point guard who will justify signing Rose to a big-money deal. He can still take over games at times, but $150 million is a lot to commit.

聯盟中還是有許多球隊在組織後衛位置需要補強，他們會爲羅斯開出一份合理的肥約。現在的羅斯依舊可以偶爾接管比賽。但想要1億5000萬，還是太多了……

Danilo Gallinari Denver Nuggets

達尼羅-加里納利，丹佛掘金

2016–17 stats: 17.7 ppg, 39.1 3P%, 17.1 PER Contract prototype: Kent Bazemore: 4 years, $70 million

2016-2017賽季：17.7分，三分命中率39.1%，PER值17。合同模板：肯特-貝茲莫爾：4年7000萬

It’s hard to believe that 2016–17 is Gallinari’s sixth year with the Nuggets after being shipped from New York in 2011. The former No. 6 overall pick is now the leading scorer for Denver, shooting a career-best 44.6% from the field.

很難想象自打2011年從尼克斯轉會到掘金，加里納利已經在掘金呆6年了。當初的6號秀現在是掘金隊的得分王，命中率生涯最高（44.6%）。

The Nuggets currently hold the No. 8 seed in the West with 15 games to go. And if Denver fends off challengers to make the playoffs, Gallinari's stock will likely rise even further leading into free agency. Don’t expect Denver to get in a bidding war for Gallo’s services, though. The Nuggets have numerous starting-caliber wings, and could choose to prioritize signing a point guard in the off–season.

常規賽還有15場，掘金目前在西部排名第8。爲了守住自己的季後賽席位，即使合約即將到期，加里納利在球隊的權重依舊會進一步增加。可是你覺得這樣掘金就會早早給他報價了？不會的。球隊有一衆先發級別的側翼球員，這份錢可能會留着在休賽期優先簽個後衛。

With Wilson Chandler, Jamal Murray and Gary Harris also fighting for playing time, Gallinari might find himself outside of the team’s summer plans. But he shouldn’t fret. Gallinari is too good of a scorer not to reel in a large contract in the off–season.

威爾森-錢德勒，賈馬爾-穆雷還有加里-哈里斯都在競爭上場時間，很可能今夏加里納利在不在球隊的未來計劃之內。哈哈，彆着忙，加里納利這樣的優質得分手，總會有人給他大合同的。

Otto Porter Washington Wizards

奧托-波特，華盛頓奇才

2016–17 stats: 14.1 ppg, 45.3 3P%, 17.6 PER Contract prototype: Bradley Beal: 5 years, $128 million 

2016-2017數據：14.1分，三分命中率45.3%，PER值17.6。合同模板：布拉德利-比爾：5年1億2800萬

If Rose’s career looks to be in decline, the opposite is true for Otto Porter. The Georgetown product struggled mightily early in his career, labeled a bust by many after being selected with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2013 NBA draft. Now, he’s scoring over 14 points per game and leading the NBA in three-point shooting at 45.3%

如果說羅斯的生涯曲線是不斷下滑的，那波特則恰恰與之相反。這位從喬治城走出的球員2013年被奇才隊用探花籤選中，在生涯初期他表現掙扎，一度被人們貼上了水貨的標籤。現在他場均可以得到14分啦，三分命中率45.3%，冠絕全聯盟。

Porter’s play has been one of the key parts of Washington’s ascension to second place in the Eastern Conference. The Wizards now have a quality third option alongside John Wall and Bradley Beal who can spread the floor for Wall’s drives to the rim. Washington has won seven of its last nine contests, averaging over 116 points per game.

今日奇才隊能來到東部第二的位置，相當一部分是波特的功勞。約翰-沃爾突破籃下時，身旁的比爾可以爲他拉開空間，而兩人之外的波特則是隊內可靠的第三選擇。奇才過去9場比賽贏了7場，場均可以得到116分。

Porter will be a restricted free agent in the summer, allowing Washington to match any offer. Porter is in position to receive several lucrative offers as a 23-year-old with significant upside. It’s a risky proposition, but Washington may be forced to match any mammoth offer for Porter this summer.

波特今夏是受限制的自由球員，奇才隊可以匹配任何報價。波特本賽季大幅度的進步，23歲的他會收到一些誘人的價碼。自己家小夥兒被人惦記嘍，但是無論其他球隊給出什麼樣的大額合同，奇才隊一定會匹配的。

P.J. Tucker Toronto Raptors

PJ-塔克，多倫多猛龍

2016-17 stats: 6.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 10.4 PER Contract Prototype: Courtney Lee: 4 years, $50 million

2016-2017數據：6.6分，5.8籃板，PER值10.4。合同模板：考特尼-李：4年5000萬

Tucker has become one of the league’s most reliable defenders despite playing five seasons overseas following his rookie season. He’s proven capable of guarding some of the best wings in the league and is a quality rebounder. Toronto’s trade for Tucker prior to the deadline was lauded by many throughout the league, who saw him as a strong defender who could slow down LeBron James in the playoffs.

儘管新秀賽季之後在海外打了5年，但現如今塔克已成爲聯盟中最可靠的防守者之一。他已經證明自己可以防守聯盟部分頂級側翼，同時他也是一名優質的籃板手。本賽季猛龍在截止日期前交易的得到了塔克，這筆操作飽受讚譽，這名強壯的防守隊員可以在季後賽用來限制勒布朗-詹姆斯。

Tucker would be an asset to a slew of teams throughout the league, but he has his limitations. He’s only shot above 35% from three once in his career, and averages just 6.6 points per game in 2016-17. There will be interest in Tucker once the season is over, but his contract will be a little more measured.

塔克是那種許多隊伍都想得到的球員，但他也有他得問題。整個生涯他只有一個賽季三分命中率上35%，本賽季場均僅得到6.6分。休賽期塔克的情況還是很有意思的，他未來的合同金額還是得反覆斟酌一番。

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Detroit Pistons

肯塔維厄斯-考德威爾-波普，底特律活塞隊

2016-17 stats: 14.2 ppg, 37.3 3P%, 13.7 PER Contract Prototype: Harrison Barnes: 4 years, $94 million

2016-2017數據：14.2分，三分命中率37.3%，PER值13.7。合同模板：哈里森-巴恩斯：4年9400萬

Things looked bad in the Motor City in January and early February. A swirl of benchings and trade rumors surrounded the Pistons, who often looked sluggish and disinterested. But the Pistons have rallied since, winning seven of their last 10 games to hold the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference.

一月份和二月初，汽車城的情況可不容樂觀。雷吉-傑克遜的輪換問題和交易留言一起縈繞在底特律上空，活塞隊總是一份木頭木腦，意興闌珊的樣子。可自那以後球隊重新找到了感覺，過去10場比賽贏了7場，現排在東部第7。

Caldwell–Pope has been integral in the turning around Detroit’s fortunes. He’s become a dynamic backcourt partner with Reggie Jackson, capable of attacking the rim and hitting jumpers off screens. And he’s just 24 years old.

波普已成爲活塞隊不可或缺的一部分。他是雷吉-傑克遜活力四射的後場搭檔。他可以攻框也可以借掩護跳投，他才24 歲。

KCP is far from polished, but two years of continued improvement will have teams coming his way in the summer. If Detroit can hold onto its playoff spot over the last 15-plus games, Caldwell-Pope will be a big reason why. Then it’s only a matter of whether the Pistons decide to re-sign him.

雖然波普離頂級球員還有很長的距離，但這2年他一直在不斷進步。如果活塞後面10幾場比賽打完可以闖進季後賽，那一定得益於波普的優秀髮揮。今夏許多球隊已經盯上他了，現在的問題就看活塞想不想重新簽約了。

Jrue Holiday New Orleans Pelicans

朱-霍勒迪，新奧爾良鵜鶘隊

2016-17 stats: 15.9 ppg, 7.4 apg, 17.2 PER Contract Prototype: Nicolas Batum: 5-years, $120 million

2016-2017數據：15.9分，7.4助攻，PER值17.2。合同模板：尼古拉斯-巴圖姆：5年1億2000萬

The third option for New Orleans behind Anthony Davis and the recently-acquired DeMarcus Cousins, Holiday holds a rare amount of leverage over the Pelicans. Their backcourt is woefully depleted, with few capable options aside from the veteran.

除了安東尼-戴維斯和近期得到的德馬庫斯-考辛斯，霍樂迪是球隊的第三選擇。球隊非常依賴霍樂迪的組織能力，鵜鶘的後場疲乏，除了霍樂迪這名老將，其他人確實乏善可陳。

Guards Tim Frazier and E’Twaun Moore simply aren’t talented enough to avoid hemorrhaging points when Holiday isn’t running the show, and building the backcourt though the draft isn’t an option for the Pelicans, either. They sent 2016 first–round pick Buddy Hield to Sacramento in the Cousins trade as well as their 2017 first–round pick (top–three protected).

場上沒有霍樂迪時，後衛蒂姆-弗雷澤和伊託萬-摩爾都缺乏足夠的天賦來控制場上的局面。想利用選秀解決後衛問題？這似乎也行不通。在之前的交易中，鵜鶘將2016年的首輪秀巴迪-希爾德與2017年的首輪選秀權（前3保護）一起打包送到國王了。

Davis and Cousins make for an extremely talented twosome, with each player able to take over the game at any point. But the partnership will prove to be a disappointment without a legitimate point guard feeding them the ball. If New Orleans is serious about making their twin-towers experiment work, they’ll need to sign Holiday to a major deal.

戴維斯和考辛斯是2個頂級天賦的大個子，任意一人都可以隨時接管比賽。但事實證明如果沒有一個打法合理的後衛給兩人喂球，這對組合無法達到人們所期望的高度。如果鵜鶘隊想認真貫徹的雙塔的指示精神，簽下霍樂迪就是重中之重。

Patty Mills San Antonio Spurs

帕蒂-米爾斯，聖安東尼奧馬刺隊

2016-17 stats: 9.8 ppg, 42.2 3p%, 15.8 PER Contract Prototype: Ian Mahinmi: 4 years, $64 million

2016-2017數據：9.8分，三分命中率42.3%，PER值15。合同模板：伊安-馬辛米：4年6400萬

Mills has seen an increase in playing time over the past two years in San Antonio, essentially splitting point guard duties with starter Tony Parker. Still only 28 years old, Mills is now a cog in the Spurs' machine, averaging just under 10 points per game as the team’s secondary floor general.

米爾斯過去在兩年在馬刺的球場表現不斷提升，特別是分擔了首發託尼-帕克的組織任務。如果把馬刺比作一架機器，米爾斯就是一顆重要的齒輪。他今天才28歲，作爲球隊第二陣容的指揮官，場均會得到10分左右。

With Parker turning 35 this year, the Spurs would be wise to re-sign Mills. San Antonio sports a stunning 114.8 points per 100 possessions with Mills on the floor, a mark that ranks just under a point behind Golden State for the league’s top spot. He’s able to spread the floor and control the pace of the game, an ideal fit for Gregg Popovich’s style.

帕克今年35歲了，現在馬刺重籤米爾斯是非常明智的。米爾斯登場百回合球隊可得到114.8分，什麼水平？這數據僅比聯盟第一進攻大隊勇士少一分。他可以在場上分享球，控制比賽的節奏， 恩，格雷-波波維奇默默點贊！

That said, Mills won't see a shortage of suitors this summer. Denver, Philadelphia and Dallas are just three teams with significant cap space, and all have holes at point guard. But Mills may choose to stay in the comfortable confines of San Antonio, and continue to chase championships with Kawhi Leonard and company. If he does, he'll take less money, but likely enjoy more wins.

但是得說，米爾斯今夏可不愁下家，掘金，76人，小牛三支球隊控衛位置都有短板，同時他們在休賽期也有足夠的薪資空間。但米爾斯可能還是會選擇舒舒服服地待在馬刺，繼續和科懷-倫納德、馬刺的衆多隊友們一起追求總冠軍。那樣一來，可就拿不到大合同啦，一邊是金錢，一邊是勝利，米爾斯會如何選擇呢？

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