譚百德 "騎上你的自行車Onyerbike"惹誰了

Three long decades ago Norman Tebbit, a British politician, became in¬famous for saying that in the 1930s his unemployed father got on his bike to look for work.

30年前，英國政治家譚百德(Norman Tebbit)曾說到，30年代，他的父親在失業後騎上他的自行車找工作，這番言論給他帶來惡名，

It was meant to be sensible advice.

儘管他的本意是提供明智建議。

But Onyerbike, as Mr Tebbit came to be known, sparked fury because many unemployed people did not want to move to new areas.

譚百德（後來他被人稱爲騎上你的自行車）之所以引發人們的憤怒，是因爲很多失業者不想搬到新的地方。

Echoes of this are playing out, this time in Virginia.

類似的事情最近發生在佛吉尼亞州，

Hillary Clinton has infuriated coal miners in the Appalachian region by suggesting during her presidential campaign that her environmental policies will put coal miners out of jobs.

希拉里.克林頓(Hillary Clinton)激怒了阿巴拉契亞地區的煤礦工人，因爲她在競選總統期間表示，她的環境政策將讓煤礦工人失業。

She then tried to make amends by pledging $30bn to promote measures such as retraining; as the Financial Times reported this week, some miners are becoming software engineers.

她接着試圖彌補，承諾拿出300億美元推動再培訓等措施；正如英國《金融時報》本月報道的那樣，一些礦工正成爲軟件工程師。

This sounds reasonable but there is a hitch: Appalachia has few software jobs.

這聽上去很合理，但存在一個問題：阿巴拉契亞地區的軟件工作崗位很少。

So far, former coal miners seem unwilling to get on their bikes — or even into their pick-up trucks.

迄今，失業的煤礦工人似乎不願騎上他們的自行車——或者說開着他們的皮卡——搬家。

On one level this seems unsurprising.

從一個層面上來講，這似乎並不讓人意外。

On another, however, it points to a mystery hanging over the American economy and a policy issue that the next president urgently needs to address.

然而，從另一個層面上來講，它指向縈繞着美國經濟的一個謎團，以及下屆總統亟需應對的一個政策問題。

The US used to be renowned for having a more flexible and mobile workforce than Europe; in previous centuries millions of people travelled in search of land, riches and jobs.

曾幾何時，美國因勞動力比歐洲更靈活和流動性更強而知名；之前的幾個世紀，數百萬人爲了尋找土地、財富和就業而遷徙。

But mobility has declined, not just in Appalachia but everywhere else as well.

但流動性已經下滑，不僅是在阿巴拉契亞地區，在美國其他所有地區也是一樣。

In 1990, for example, economists calculated that more than 3 per cent of the workforce moved across state borders each year; that has tumbled to 1.5 per cent.

例如，1990年，經濟學家估計，每年有超過3%的勞動者般到另一個州；如今這一比例下降至1.5%。

The decline has affected almost all ages, educational groups and regions.

這種下滑涉及幾乎所有年齡段、教育程度和地區的人羣。

Indeed, the only highly mobile group are low-skilled Mexican Hispanics: as economists Brian Cadena and Brian Kovak show, Mexican-born immigrants are still moving to find work in big numbers.

的確，唯一流動性較高的羣體是低技能的西語裔墨西哥人：正如經濟學家布萊恩.卡德納(Brian Cadena)和布萊恩.科瓦克(Brian Kovak)所指出的那樣，大量在墨西哥出生的移民仍在搬家找工作。

White unskilled workers are not.

技能低下的白人勞動者沒有這樣做。

Why? One theory suggests that, when house prices collapsed in 2008, it left millions of households underwater on their mortgages, making it hard for owners to sell and move.

爲什麼？一種理論提出，在2008年房價暴跌時，數百萬家庭揹負的房貸遠高於房屋現值，房主很難出售房產和搬家。

But this is unlikely to be the only explanation since mobility was already declining in the decade before the crash of 2008, a period when houses were easy to sell.

但這不太可能是唯一的解釋，因爲流動性在2008年危機爆發前10年就已出現下滑了，那時房屋很容易出售。

Policymakers would do well to note an intriguing second theory that emerged this week from the research and statistics group at the New York Federal Reserve: this suggests the problem reflects indirect consequences of demographics.

政策制定者最好關注一下最近紐約聯邦儲備銀行(New York Federal Reserve)研究和統計小組提出的另一種耐人尋味的理論：這個問題反映出人口結構的間接後果。

In the past three decades, as Fatih Karahan and Darius Li observe, the proportion of middle-aged workers in the US economy has risen sharply, from 45 per cent to 60 per cent.

正如法提赫.卡拉漢(Fatih Karahan)和達賴厄斯.李(Darius Li)所觀察到的，過去30年，美國經濟中的中年員工比例大幅上升，從45%升至60%。

Older workers tend to have less desire — or ability — to move.

年紀較大的員工往往更不願（或者不能）搬家。

The fact of ageing may partly explain the decline in mobility.

老齡化可能在一定程度上解釋了流動性放緩。

But Mr Karahan and Mr Li suggest that, when populations age, younger workers also become less willing to move.

但卡拉漢和李認爲，當人口老齡化時，較年輕員工也變得不願搬家。

Between 1990 and 2010, mobility rates for middle-aged workers fell from 2 per cent to 1 per cent; and, for younger workers, from 5.5 per cent to 3 per cent.

1990年至2010年，中年員工的流動比率從2%降至1%，較年輕員工的比例從5.5%降至3%。

While no one knows exactly why this occurs, the NY Fed economists suspect the trend reflects the fact that companies are adapting by becoming more adept at hiring local workers, and Americans are losing the habit of travelling for jobs.

儘管沒有人知道其中的確切原因，但紐約聯邦儲備銀行的經濟學家懷疑，這種趨勢反映出企業正在適應現實，變得更擅長聘用本地員工，美國人正放棄跨州找工作的習慣。

A 10 per cent rise in the share of middle-aged people implies a 30 per cent rise in the share of local hires,

他們總結稱：中年人比例上升10%，暗示當地人聘用比例上升30%。

they conclude, arguing that this localisation trend in hiring accounts for 1.2 percentage points of the 1.5 percentage point decline in interstate mobility.

他們辯稱，在跨州流動性下滑的1.5個百分點中，招聘本地化趨勢佔到了1.2個百分點。

This localisation trend might seem counterintuitive as the internet is supposed to have created a hyperconnected world that makes it easier to connect workers with far-flung jobs.

這種本地化趨勢似乎是反常的，因爲互聯網本該締造出一個超連接的世界，員工更容易從事遠距離的工作。

But if the theory is correct — and I suspect it is — it has two big implications.

但如果這種理論是正確的（我猜是這樣），它具有兩大潛在影響。

First, it helps to explain why so many communities find it hard to adapt to wrenching industrial change and the impact of trade.

首先，它有助於解釋爲什麼這麼多社區很難適應工業變革以及貿易影響，覺得痛苦。

Hence the appeal of Donald Trump’s America first sloganeering on the campaign trail.

因此，唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)在總統競選中提出的美國第一的口號頗受歡迎。

Second, the unwillingness of workers to travel implies that policymakers need to rethink.

其次，員工不願搬家的現象暗示，政策制定者需要三思。

Instead of offering retraining, the next incumbent in the White House might need to offer big incentives to companies to move.

美國的下任總統可能不需要考慮提供再培訓，而是需要爲公司搬遷提供巨大激勵。

The next president may also need a 21st-century version of the 1862 Homestead Act — which offered land to settlers who went west — and find new ways to encourage workers to relocate.

下任美國總統可能還需要制定一個21世紀版本的1862年《公地放領法》（Homestead Act，該法爲那些去西部拓荒的定居者提供土地），並找到新的方法鼓勵員工搬遷。

It will not be easy.

這並不容易。

But if mobility keeps falling, the sense of political polarisation and rage in places such as Appalachia will rise.

但如果流動性持續下滑，政治兩極分化感和阿巴拉契亞等地區的憤怒情緒將會加劇。

Either way, one thing is clear — whatever happens on November 8 — the wrenching process of industrial change will not go away.

不管怎樣，有一點很清楚，不管11月8日的總統大選結果如何，工業變革的痛苦過程不會消失。