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特朗普政府會“正常化”嗎

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Is it possible that — beneath the fury and the farce — the Trump administration might settle down and turn into a conventional US government? The appointment of HR McMaster as the president’s national security adviser, has raised the hopes of those hoping for the “normalisation” of the Trump White House.

特朗普政府會“正常化”嗎
狂躁易怒、鬧劇不斷的特朗普(Trump)政府有可能安靜下來,變成一個傳統的美國政府嗎?H?R?麥克馬斯特中將(Lt General H.R. McMaster)被任命爲總統的國家安全顧問,爲那些期待特朗普政府“正常化”的人帶來了希望。

Lieutenant General McMaster is widely respected in Washington and his appointment has been greeted warmly by Republicans and Democrats. In this respect, he makes a striking contrast to Michael Flynn, the man he will replace at the head of the National Security Council. Mr Flynn is a conspiracy theorist who had also been pushed out of his previous job as head of the Defence Intelligence Agency. He was manifestly unsuited to run the NSC. Even senior Republicans had speculated to me that Mr Flynn would not last a year in his job. In the event, it took three weeks for him to be forced out.

麥克馬斯特中將在華盛頓廣受尊敬,他的任命得到了共和黨人和民主黨人的熱烈歡迎。在這方面,他與邁克爾?弗林(Michael Flynn)——麥克馬斯特將接替他執掌國家安全委員會(National Security Council)——形成了鮮明對比。弗林是一個陰謀論者,以前擔任國防情報局(Defence Intelligence Agency)局長時就被解職過。他顯然不適合掌管國家安全委員會。就連資深共和黨人都曾向我做出這樣的推測:弗林在這個位置上待不了一年——結果他只待了三週就被迫辭職。

The ousting of Mr Flynn and his replacement by Lt Gen McMaster could be a turning point in the making of Mr Trump’s foreign policy. The three key foreign policy positions are now held by rational professionals, with James Mattis at the Pentagon, Lt Gen McMaster at the NSC and Rex Tillerson at the State Department. Working together, these three might be able to reduce the influence and impact of some of the more marginal characters who attached themselves to Mr Trump during the course of the campaign.

弗林下臺並被麥克馬斯特取代,可能是特朗普外交政策制定的一個轉折點。外交政策三大關鍵職位現在都由理性專業人士擔任,詹姆斯?馬蒂斯(James Mattis)在五角大樓(Pentagon),麥克馬斯特中將在國家安全委員會,雷克斯?蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)在美國國務院(State Department)。這三人並肩攜手,或許能減少一些在競選時期攀附上特朗普的次要人物造成的衝擊與影響。

In time, it is even possible that the most radical advisers to the president, such as Stephen Bannon and Kellyanne Conway, might be pushed to the sidelines, or even forced out of the White House. At that point, the “normalisation” of the Trump administration could take hold, with the president reduced to a titular figure, ranting and raving, but not making the important decisions.

最後,或許連特朗普身邊那些最激進的顧問都可能靠邊站,甚至被迫離開白宮,比如斯蒂芬?班農(Stephen Bannon)和凱莉安妮?康韋(Kellyanne Conway)。到那時,特朗普政府纔可能實現“正常化”,總統將成爲一個名義上的人物,他依然可以大吼大叫,胡說八道,但不做出重要決定。

Even in the chaotic first weeks of Mr Trump’s presidency — before the appointment of Lt Gen McMaster — there have been some encouraging signs that normalisation of Mr Trump’s approach to the world is possible. Early suggestions that the US might recognise Taiwan or impose a naval blockade in the South China Sea — both policies that could have led to a war with China — have been quietly jettisoned.

即便是在特朗普上任後混亂的頭幾周裏——任命麥克馬斯特中將之前——也已經有了一些令人鼓舞的跡象表明特朗普的對外政策還是有可能正常化的。最初的兩個提法——美國可能承認臺灣,或在南中國海實施海上封鎖,這兩項政策都可能導致與中國的戰爭——都已被悄然拋棄。

The idea that the Trump administration will swiftly move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem is also fading away. Sanctions on Russia have not been lifted unconditionally, nor has the US dropped its objections to Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Vice-President Mike Pence has just made a strong reaffirmation of US support for Nato at the Munich Security Conference. The great wall with Mexico may be turning into a fence. So far, there has been much more talk of tariffs and border-taxes than actual action.

關於特朗普政府將迅速把美國駐以色列大使館遷往耶路撒冷的想法也在逐漸淡去。美國沒有無條件取消對俄羅斯的制裁,也沒有放棄反對俄羅斯吞併克里米亞的立場。副總統邁克?彭斯(Mike Pence)近日在慕尼黑安全會議上強烈重申了美國對北約(Nato)的支持。美墨長城可能最終變成一道圍欄。到目前爲止,關稅和邊境稅更多是紙上談兵,沒有落到實際行動。

Like many critics of the US president, I am torn by the idea of the “normalisation” of the Trump administration. A political career based on lies and bullying does not deserve to be sanctified by success. Indeed, if Trump-style politics takes hold in the US, then American democracy will have been permanently debased.

像這位美國總統的許多批評者一樣,我也被特朗普政府“正常化”的想法糾結着。一番基於謊言和霸凌的政治事業不應因成功而受到肯定。事實上,如果“特朗普式政治”在美國紮下根來,那麼美國民主將永遠淪爲末流。

There are also practical reasons for doubting whether the Trump administration can ever be truly normalised. The most telling objection is that, whoever fills the main staff positions, the administration will continue to be headed by Mr Trump. The president is erratic, irascible, ill-informed, dishonest, addicted to Twitter — and commander-in-chief. That will always mean that his administration is flirting with disaster.

一些現實的理由也令人懷疑特朗普政府是否可以真的正常化。最有說服力的反對意見是,無論誰來坐上那些主要的幕僚職位,政府仍將由特朗普領導。這位總統反覆無常、暴躁、消息閉塞、不誠實、迷戀Twitter——還是三軍總司令。這些往往意味着他的政府總愛招惹災難。

But if normalisation of the Trump administration is dismissed as morally flawed and politically unconvincing, the president’s foes are thrown back on the hope that his presidency will implode. The trouble is that the implosion scenario is simultaneously unlikely and dangerous.

但如果特朗普政府的正常化被視爲道德上有缺陷、政治上沒有說服力,那特朗普的對手們就又會抱着希望,認爲他的總統寶座坐不長,會發生內爆。問題在於,發生內爆的情況既不大可能,也極爲危險。

For all the talk of impeachment of the president, it remains the fact that both Houses of Congress are under the control of the Republicans. As things stand, it still seems highly unlikely that the Republicans will turn on Mr Trump, who remains very popular with the party’s base. The US and the world can ill-afford the two years of political turmoil that it might take to remove Mr Trump from office. And the chances that Mr Trump and his most radical acolytes would do something truly dangerous would surely mount if he was cornered and fighting for his political survival.

儘管有很多關於彈劾總統的言論,但事實是,國會兩院都在共和黨控制之下。從目前情況看,共和黨人與仍深受該黨基層選民歡迎的特朗普翻臉的可能性仍微乎其微。美國和整個世界都無法承受迫使特朗普下臺可能帶來的長達兩年的政治混亂。而且,如果被逼至絕境且只求爲政治生存而戰,特朗普及其最激進的追隨者做出真正危險之事的可能性定會大增。

The case in favour of hoping for normalisation is that when an erratic president is advised by inexperienced ideologues — like Mr Bannon and Ms Conway — it becomes even more urgent to surround him with moderate and experienced voices. It is immensely dangerous to have an unshackled Mr Trump in charge of the world’s most powerful military. It is very damaging to America’s status as a model for the democratic world.

讓我們對正常化抱着期待的理由是,當一個反覆無常的總統有一幫缺乏經驗的空想家(如班農和康韋)擔任顧問時,就更加迫切地需要讓他身邊出現溫和且富有經驗的聲音。由不受任何約束的特朗普掌管世界最強大的軍隊也是極其危險的。這非常有損美國作爲民主世界之模範的威望。

Intellectually, therefore, I have reluctantly come around to the view that “normalisation” is the best hope we have with the Trump administration. Emotionally, however, I am still hoping for implosion. In reality, I fear the Trump administration may neither normalise nor implode. Even with Lt Gen McMaster in the White House, we face a long and dangerous four years.

因此,理智上我不情願地接受了如下觀點:我們能寄予特朗普政府的最好的希望就是“正常化”。但情感上我仍希望看到其發生內爆。然而,在現實中,我擔心的是,特朗普政府或許既不會正常化,也不會內爆。即使白宮裏有麥克馬斯特中將,我們仍面臨漫長而危險的四年。