默克爾是西方衣鉢的繼承人
Angela Merkel is Europe’s last leader standing.
安格拉.默克爾(Angela Merkel)是歐洲最後一位還站着的領導人。
The German chancellor will soon announce she will be seeking a fourth term in next year’s election.
這位德國總理已宣佈，她會尋求在明年選舉中獲得第四個總理任期。
Not so long ago it seemed that she might be unseated by the migrant crisis as Germany’s anti-immigrant populists — Alternative for Germany — took to the streets.
而不久之前，德國反移民的民粹主義者——德國新選擇黨(Alternative for Germany)——走上街頭時，她似乎可能因爲移民危機下臺。
Now, with a Trumpian storm rolling across the Atlantic, Germany, and Europe, seem unimaginable without her.
如今，隨着一場特朗普風暴席捲大西洋對岸，沒有默克爾的德國和歐洲似乎是不可想象的。
Ms Merkel’s carefully conditional reaction to Donald Trump’s victory voiced what most European leaders think but are too fearful to say about the US president-elect.
默克爾對唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)獲勝的有條件的謹慎反應，道出了大多數歐洲領導人心裏所想、但不敢說出的對這位當選美國總統的看法。
Her words bear repetition.
她的話值得重複。
Germany and the US are tied by values.
德國和美國是通過價值觀捆綁在一起的。
Democracy, freedom, respect for the rule of law and the dignity of humankind — independent of origin, skin colour, gender, sexual orientation or political views.
民主、自由、尊重法治和人類尊嚴——無論出身、膚色、性別、性取向或政治觀點如何。
Berlin would work closely with the new administration, she said, on the basis of those values.
她說，柏林方面將在這些價值觀的基礎上與美國新政府密切合作。
Visiting the German capital this week, I caught the mix of pain and resolve conveyed by the chancellor.
上週到訪德國首都時，我感受到了這位總理傳達出的一種混雜着悲傷與堅決的情緒。
Pain because Germany sees itself as the guardian of the postwar international order so disdained by Mr Trump.
悲傷，是因爲德國把自己視爲遭特朗普蔑視的戰後國際秩序的守衛者。
It has not forgotten what came before.
德國沒有忘記歷史。
And Ms Merkel, born in the then communist east, knows all about freedom.
而出生在當時共產主義東德的默克爾，理解有關自由的一切。
Resolve because this Germany and this chancellor will not pay fealty to the president if his agenda is written by white supremacists.
堅決，是因爲如果特朗普的議程是被白人至上主義者寫就的話，現在的德國和這位總理將不會支持他。
It was left to Boris Johnson, Britain’s inestimably silly foreign secretary, to offer a counter view.
輪到極其幼稚的英國外交大臣鮑里斯.約翰遜(Boris Johnson)發表相反觀點了。
Mr Trump is an opportunity, he boomed.
特朗普提供了一個機會，他大聲說。
The president-elect has promised to dissolve the transatlantic security relationship, strike a dirty deal with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and derail the global trading system.
這位當選總統承諾要解除跨大西洋安全關係，與俄羅斯的弗拉基米爾.普京(Vladimir Putin)達成骯髒的協議，還要推翻全球貿易體系。
Yet, even as the geopolitical plates crash and grind, Mr Johnson declares all to be well: Mr Trump might favour Britain with a post-Brexit trade deal.
然而，就在地緣政治板塊發生碰撞和擠壓時，約翰遜宣告一切都很好：特朗普或許會偏向英國，在英國脫歐之後跟英國簽訂一份貿易協議。
The less palatable strategic reality is that, as a European power with widely scattered global interests, Britain relies more than most on a rules-based order to underwrite its prosperity and keep the peace.
不太容易讓人接受的戰略現實是，作爲一個在全球具有廣泛、分散的利益的歐洲強國，英國比大多數國家更依賴一個基於規則的秩序，來保障自己的繁榮與和平。
Mr Trump says he has had enough of this globalism, and will replace it with Americanism.
特朗普表示，他已受夠了這種全球主義，將用美國主義取而代之。
This at the moment Britain is marginalising itself in Europe.
而此刻英國正在歐洲把自己邊緣化。
It was scarcely surprising then that Barack Obama chose Berlin for his farewell meeting with European leaders this week.
難怪巴拉克.奧巴馬(Barack Obama)上週把與歐洲領導人的告別會地點選在了柏林。
Ms Merkel, the US president says, has been his closest international partner.
這位美國總統表示，默克爾一直是他的最親密的國際合作夥伴。
François Hollande is also saying his goodbyes.
弗朗索瓦.奧朗德(François Hollande)也在向奧巴馬道別。
So, too, Matteo Renzi and Theresa May.
馬泰奧.倫齊(Matteo Renzi)和特里薩.梅(Theresa May)也一樣。
But these three are making up the numbers.
但這三人是湊數的。
The French president will soon be gone, the Italian prime minister faces his own populist revolt and the British premier has time for nothing besides the convulsions promised by Brexit.
法國總統不久後將卸任，意大利總理面臨着本國的民粹主義反叛，英國首相沒有時間處理除英國脫歐必定帶來的震動之外的任何事情。
Publicly, Mr Obama has sought to offer reassurance.
在公開場合，奧巴馬一直尋求讓大家放心。
His successor will not abandon the Atlantic alliance, geopolitical realities will impose themselves, the US is unlikely to surrender leadership.
他的繼任者將不會放棄大西洋同盟，地緣政治現實將自動施加影響，美國不太可能交出領導權。
So the story goes.
報道如是說。
Mr Trump’s disdain for Nato and his admiration for Mr Putin, however, have roots deeper than the election campaign.
然而，特朗普對北約(Nato)的蔑視和對普京的欽佩，發端於總統競選之前。
Ms Merkel — I watched her speaking to the German employers’ federation — is comfortable talking about the values that sustain our civilisation.
默克爾——我見證了她對德國僱主協會發表講話——坦然地談論支撐我們的文明的那些價值觀。
Mr Trump does deals.
而特朗普是做交易的。
The potential transatlantic collisions speak for themselves.
潛在的跨大西洋衝突是不言而喻的。
The EU is preparing to renew the sanctions imposed on Mr Putin after Russia’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine.
在俄羅斯吞併克里米亞、入侵烏克蘭東部之後，歐盟(EU)正準備對普京採取新的制裁。
Some members of the Union have never been comfortable with the commercial costs of the sanctions.
有些歐盟成員國一直對制裁的商業成本感到不舒服。
Hungary’s authoritarian prime minister, Viktor Orban, prefers to pay homage to Mr Putin.
匈牙利的威權總理歐爾班.維克托(Viktor Orban)更願意向普京表示敬意。
But Ms Merkel has marshalled the 28 behind a common position.
但默克爾統領歐盟28個成員國達成了一個共同立場。
To do otherwise would be to concede that, once again, Europe’s borders can be changed by force.
如若不然將意味着承認，歐洲的邊界可以再度靠武力更改。
A deal between Messrs Trump and Putin to accept Moscow’s revanchism would at once overturn the security settlement that has prevailed since 1945 and point to a future in which Europe is divided again between competing spheres of influence.
如果特朗普與普京達成一項接受俄羅斯復仇行動的協議，將立即推翻自1945年以來佔統治地位的安全安排，並指向一種歐洲在爭奪勢力範圍中再次四分五裂的未來。
Mr Putin probably does not want to seize the Baltics, Georgia or Belarus.
普京很可能不想奪取波羅的海諸國、格魯吉亞或者白俄羅斯。
He does want to make sure that Russia’s neighbours act only with its permission.
但他的確想要保證，俄羅斯的鄰國僅在它的許可範圍內採取行動。
Where, in the long term, does this leave Poland, a nation that under its present, reactionary, leadership asks its western partners to underwrite its security even as it repudiates their democratic values?
從長期看，這會將在當前極端保守領導人的治理下，一邊否定西方夥伴國的民主價值觀、一邊要求它們爲自己的安全背書的波蘭引向何方？
Mr Trump will not get everything his own way.
特朗普將不會每件事都如自己的心願。
He has promised to tear up the UN agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear programme — a plan that would give hardliners in Tehran the go-ahead to resume efforts to secure a bomb.
他承諾撕毀限制伊朗核計劃的聯合國協議——該計劃將放任伊朗國內的強硬派繼續研發核彈。
The president-elect should not expect European governments to follow suit if the US seeks to restore the sanctions regime.
如果美國尋求恢復對伊朗制裁的話，這位當選總統不應指望歐洲各國政府跟隨。
Nuclear non-proliferation matters to Europeans.
核不擴散對歐洲國家很重要。
Mr Trump is on record as saying he would be unfussed if Japan or South Korea decided to build their own bombs.
而特朗普說過，如果日韓決定建造自己的核武器，他也不會感到擔憂，這是有據可查的。
Europe is in a wait-and-see mode.
歐洲目前正處於觀望之中。
How many of the campaign pledges will carry through into government? The choice looks to be one between a bad outcome and a very bad one.
特朗普在競選時做出的承諾，有多少個將變成政府政策？這似乎是在一個壞結果和一個更壞的結果之間的選擇。
Europeans have struggled for some time to uphold their values against authoritarians without and populists within.
一段時間以來，歐洲國家一直在努力對抗國外的威權者和國內的民粹主義者，堅持自己的價值觀。
The danger now comes from across the Atlantic.
如今，危險來自大西洋對岸。
It falls to Ms Merkel to speak for what during the past seven decades we have known as the west.
默克爾有責任代表過去70年裏我們所知道的那個西方發言。
