默克爾下臺將導致歐洲解體

It is more accurate to call it panic than plotting. This week I spent time in the company of members of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrat party. Startlingly for an outsider, the conversations turned on whether the German chancellor would survive the refugee crisis. Some thought she had just weeks to turn things around. Never mind that only yesterday she had towered above any other European leader. Overnight, the unthinkable has become the plausible — for some in her party, the probable.

這事與其說是陰謀，不如說是恐慌。上週我與安格拉默克爾(Angela Merkel)所在的基民盟(Christian Democrat)的一些黨員作了一番交談。對局外人來說令人震驚的是，話題轉向了德國總理是否撐得過難民危機。一些人認爲她只有數週時間來扭轉局面。且不談她的威望直到最近還遠遠高於歐洲其他領導人。一夜之間，難以置信的事似乎變得合情合理——對於其黨內某些人來說，甚至是很可能發生的事。

Other voices say the fever will subside, but Ms Merkel’s vulnerability speaks to the convulsions across Europe caused by the tide of refugees from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and the Maghreb and Sahel countries of Africa. In the eastern, post-communist part of the continent, the influx has strengthened the hands of the ethnic nationalists who never quite signed up to the idea of liberal democracy. To the west it has bolstered the fortunes of nativists such as Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France. Rallies of the far-right Pegida party in Germany now feature speakers who lament the loss of concentration camps. If Britain’s David Cameron loses his referendum to keep Britain in the EU it will be because emotions over migration trump economic self-interest.

其他人表示這波熱度會消退，但是默克爾的脆弱地位反映了席捲整個歐洲的動盪，其起因是來自敘利亞、伊拉克、阿富汗以及非洲馬格里布（Maghreb，馬格里布是歷史上對北非地區阿爾及利亞、摩洛哥和突尼斯的統稱，大馬格里布除上述三國外還包括毛里塔尼亞和利比亞——譯者注）和薩赫勒（Sahel，非洲撒哈拉沙漠和蘇丹草原地區之間一條橫跨多個國家的地帶——譯者注）等國的難民潮。在東歐的前共產黨統治國家，難民的涌入加強了族羣民族主義者的氣勢，這些人本來就從未接受自由民主的觀念。在西歐，難民潮助長了諸如法國馬琳勒龐(Marine Le Pen)領導的國民陣線(National Front)等本土主義者的人氣。德國極右翼黨派“愛國歐洲人反對西方伊斯蘭化”(Pegida)如今竟然有演講者在集會上哀嘆集中營不復存在。如果英國的戴維慍蕓倫(David Cameron)輸掉了讓英國繼續留在歐盟(EU)的公投，那將是因爲人們對移民的情緒壓倒了經濟利益考量。

Ms Merkel has rarely been called a conviction politician. Her longevity in office has resided in her skill in finding the natural point of balance in the German national mood; and, it should be said, her ruthlessness in despatching potential rivals. The adjectives most often applied to her leadership style, sometimes with more than a note of frustration, have been cautious, deliberative and consensual.

默克爾很少被稱爲是具有堅定信念的政治人物。她在位之所以長久，在於她有本事把握德國國民情緒的自然平衡點；同時也應該說，在於她打發潛在競爭對手的冷酷無情。在描述其領導風格時最常用的幾個形容詞是謹慎、深思熟慮和重視共識——有時人們會帶着相當受挫的語氣這麼形容她的風格。

“Mutti” (mum) Merkel, as she is often called, has succeeded by assuring her compatriots that she will shelter Germany from the fires raging beyond its borders. They need not worry about the detail of policy. Germans can be sure she will be firm but calm in standing up to Russia’s Vladimir Putin and, though committed to the future of the euro, will be a careful guardian of the nation’s finances. For a decade, Germans have taken her on trust.

常被稱爲“媽媽”的默克爾，以向其國民保證她將使德國不受境外種種危機的影響而取得成功。人們不需要擔心政策細節。德國人可以確信，默克爾將堅定而沉着地面對俄羅斯的弗拉基米爾渠京(Vladimir Putin)，同時，儘管她心繫歐元的未來，但她也會謹慎守護德國的財政。10年來，德國人已經不加深究地信任於她。

She has displayed the same skills in Europe. Those who have watched her operate at summits of EU leaders have marvelled at her informal consensus-building. A conversation over the shoulder with this prime minister, a deal sealed over a snatched cup of coffee with that president, a friendly pat on the shoulder for officials seeking common ground. Ms Merkel has always pressed the German interest, but in a manner of compromise over confrontation.

她在歐洲施展了同樣的技巧。那些曾目睹她在歐盟領導人峯會上展露風采的人，驚歎於她以非正式方式凝聚共識的能力。與這位總理悄悄交談，與那位總統在喝咖啡的功夫敲定一份協議，友好地拍一下正在尋找共同點的官員們的肩膀。默克爾總是在推進德國的利益，但她採用的是妥協（而非對抗）風格。