巴拉克奧巴馬(Barack Obama)在覈武方面的政治遺產

Nothing better captures the paradox of Barack Obama’s presidency than his legacy on nuclear weapons. On Friday Mr Obama will become the first US president to visit the Japanese city of Hiroshima, 70 years after the US became the first — and last — country to use the atomic bomb.

沒有什麼事情比巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)在覈武方面的政治遺產更能反映出他總統任期內的自相矛盾之處了。本週五，他將成爲第一位訪問日本廣島的在任美國總統。70年前，美國成爲首個、也是迄今唯一一個使用原子彈的國家。

Though Mr Obama will stop short of apologising for the bombing of Hiroshima, his visit will be richly symbolic. It may even create political room for Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, to break precedent by visiting Pearl Harbor, scene of the 1941 attack by Japan against the US.

儘管奧巴馬不會爲美國當年在廣島投放核彈的行爲道歉，但他的到訪將帶有濃厚的象徵意味。此行甚至可能創造政治空間，讓日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)史無前例地訪問珍珠港——1941年日本在那裏襲擊了美國。

The Hiroshima visit will showcase Mr Obama at his best. As the peoples of Cuba, Vietnam and Iran can attest, no US president has taken greater risks to bury the hatchet on past enmities.

廣島之行將展現處於最佳狀態的奧巴馬。正如古巴、越南、伊朗人民可以證明的那樣，從沒有哪位美國總統冒這麼大風險去化解過去的積怨。

Yet few US presidents have raised hopes so unrealistically high. Seven years ago Mr Obama promised to work for a “world free of nuclear weapons” in a speech in Prague. As he prepares to leave office, Mr Obama will bequeath what nuclear analysts call the “second nuclear age”. In Prague he said: “As the only nuclear power to have used a nuclear weapon, the United States has a moral responsibility to act.”

不過，也幾乎沒有哪位美國總統讓外界對自己寄予如此高的、幾乎不切實際的希望。7年前，奧巴馬在布拉格發表的一次演講中承諾，將致力於建立一個“沒有核武器的世界”。在他準備離任之際，奧巴馬將留給世界的是核分析人士所稱的“第二個核時代”。在布拉格，他曾表示：“作爲唯一一個使用過核武器的核大國，美國負有道義上的責任要採取行動。”

Mr Obama’s biggest single action since then has been to embark on the largest nuclear weapons modernisation programme in history — a $1tn, 30-year upgrade to the US nuclear force, scripted by the Pentagon. His decision, which many believe was presented as a fait accompli by the US nuclear bureaucracy , is likely to outlast all his others put together.

從那以來，奧巴馬採取的最大行動便是，開啓史上最大規模的核武現代化升級計劃。這一由五角大樓(Pentagon)起草的計劃將耗資1萬億美元、耗時30年，對美國核力量進行升級。很多人認爲，奧巴馬的這一決定是作爲既成事實、由美國的核官僚宣佈的。這一決定的影響可能會比他的其他所有計劃都更長遠。

Mr Obama has often been criticised for the contrast between his words and his actions — most notably in the war on Islamist terrorism, where he banned the term “war on terror” while redoubling drone warfare.

奧巴馬常因言行不一而受到批評——最顯著的例子體現在打擊伊斯蘭恐怖主義的戰爭中，他禁止白宮內部使用“反恐戰爭”一詞，同時卻加強了無人機作戰。

But the gap between his nuclear promises and reality is even starker. He agreed to the $1tn upgrade in exchange for Republican support for his nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia.

但是，他的核承諾與現實之間的差距甚至更加明顯。他同意了耗資1萬億美元的核武升級計劃，以換取共和黨支持他與俄羅斯簽訂的削減核武器條約。

Though the spending spree was meant to conserve the US’s existing arsenal, it is far more ambitious than advertised. Whole classes of warhead will be replaced. Alert warning times will be shortened.

儘管這一瘋狂支出是爲了保養美國現有的軍械庫，但是實際上它的野心遠遠超過官方宣傳的程度。某些類別的彈頭將全部被替換。警報時間將縮短。

And the US will retain its nuclear triad on air, land and sea. Mr Obama made cosmetic changes to the US posture in 2010, which included the promise not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries. But he retained the “first use” doctrine against nuclear weapons countries such as China and Russia.

同時，美國將繼續保留海、陸、空三位一體的核力量。2010年，奧巴馬對美國的姿態做出了象徵性的改變，其中包括承諾不對無核國家使用核武器。但是，他保留了對中國和俄羅斯等有核國家採取“先發制人”核打擊的原則。

Nor are experts any more confident than before in the effectiveness of US nuclear safety. In July 2012, three religious activists, including an 82-year-old nun with a heart condition, broke into the Oak Ridge Y12 facility in Tennessee — known as the “Fort Knox” of uranium. They spent 45 minutes spraying the facility with graffiti before being arrested.

也沒有哪個專家對美國核安全的有效性比以前更有信心。2012年7月，三名宗教行動主義者（包括一位患有心臟病的82歲修女）闖入了位於田納西州的橡樹嶺Y12 (Oak Ridge Y12)核設施——被稱爲儲藏鈾的“諾克斯堡”（Fort Knox，美聯儲的金庫——譯者注）。他們在那裏亂塗亂畫了45分鐘後才被逮捕。

A fifth of Oak Ridge’s cameras and sensor monitors did not work, enabling the protesters to cut through three fences without being detected. It was guarded by a subsidiary of G4S, the UK private security company. Mr Obama’s programme redoubles the reliance on automated security systems monitored by private contractors.

當時橡樹嶺五分之一的攝像頭和傳感器監控器都壞了，使三名抗議者得以穿過三道圍欄而未被發現。當時負責守衛那裏的是英國私人安保公司傑富仕(G4S)的一家子公司。奧巴馬的計劃大大增加了對私人承包商監控的自動化安保系統的依賴。

On the plus side, Mr Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran could prevent what might otherwise have turned into a full-blown nuclear arms race in the Middle East. That too will be part of his legacy. He has also chivvied other nuclear countries to reduce uranium stockpiles and improve safety. Taken as a whole, however, the world looks less safe today than when he took office.

從有利的方面來說，奧巴馬與伊朗簽訂的核協議或許掐滅了中東全面核軍備競賽的苗頭。這也將是他政治遺產的一部分。他還通過不懈的努力，促使其他擁核國家削減了鈾儲備並提高了核安全性。然而，整體來看，如今的世界似乎比他上任時更不安全了。

China, India, Pakistan and Russia are all following the US lead in modernising their arsenals. North Korea is considerably closer to developing a nuclear warhead with intercontinental reach.

中國、印度、巴基斯坦和俄羅斯均效仿美國開始對各自的軍械庫進行現代化升級。朝鮮已經相當接近於研發出洲際核彈頭。

In Prague, Mr Obama said: “In a strange turn of history, the threat of global nuclear war has gone down, but the risk of nuclear attack has gone up.”

在布拉格，奧巴馬曾表示：“世事難料，如今爆發全球核戰爭的威脅降低了，核襲擊的風險卻升高了。”

Seven years on, it is hard to argue that the first part of that statement still holds.

七年過去了，如今很難主張這句話的前半部分仍然站得住腳。