奧巴馬清潔電力背後的政治算盤

Having solved the Iranian problem US President Barack Obama has selected climate change as the next building block in the construction of his legacy.

在解決完伊朗問題之後，美國總統巴拉克攠巴馬(Barack Obama)選擇將氣候變化作爲其政治遺產的下一個組成部分。

The contents of his “clean power plan”, which he trailed at the weekend, are important for their substance and, equally, for their political impact — not just for the Paris climate negotiations in December but more importantly for the presidential election next year.

上週末出爐的奧巴馬《清潔電力計劃》(Clean Power Plan)具有實質重要性，同樣也具有重要的政治衝擊力——對今年12月的巴黎氣候談判，對明年的總統大選都是如此。

On the substance, the move is an unprecedented peacetime assertion of political authority over the private sector. Even if some states resist the instruction to cut emissions by about a third from a 2005 base within 15 years, many will obey — with serious consequences for the businesses involved and their investors. Coal-fired power plants will be closed and, with export potential limited, dozens of US coal mines will close as well. No wonder the reaction from the industry is fierce.

就實質內容而言，此舉是政治權力機構在和平時期對私人部門提出的史無前例的要求。它要求各州在15年內將碳排放量在2005年基礎上減少大約三分之一；即使有一些州會抵制，但許多州將遵從——給相關企業及其投資者造成嚴重後果。燃煤電廠將被關閉，而且鑑於出口空間受限，數十家美國煤礦也將關閉。難怪業界反應激烈。

The beneficiary will be the solar business. Mr Obama’s plan echoes the initiative launched last month by Hillary Clinton as part of her campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, designed to increase the amount of solar power generated by 700 per cent by 2027, using regulatory power to boost the market share of renewables.

受益者將是太陽能企業。奧巴馬的計劃呼應了希拉裏克林頓(Hillary Clinton)上月在爭取民主黨總統候選人提名時提出的主張，力求讓太陽能發電量到2027年增加700%，動用監管權力提升可再生能源的市場份額。

The number is ambitious but the pace of technical progress means growth could be achieved without a big increase in subsidies or consumer prices. Across the US the costs of solar is falling and beginning to reach “grid parity”— which means they are competitive with the lowest cost fossil fuel without the need for subsidies. Mrs Clinton’s proposal cuts with the grain of emerging reality.

從數字來看，該計劃雄心勃勃，但從技術進步步伐來看，增長可以在不大幅增加補貼或上調消費者價格的情況下實現。美國各地的太陽能發電成本正在下降，開始達到“入網平等”（grid parity，即太陽發電成本下降至與傳統發電成本相當），這意味着它們不需要補貼也可以與最低成本的化石燃料競爭。希拉里的提議與正在顯現的新現實相符。

Nuclear and natural gas are left, under Mr Obama’s proposals, to fend for themselves, with no mandated market shares and no subsidies. As things stand, the gas industry can cope but, short of a breakthrough that reduces production costs, new nuclear in America looks almost as lost as it does in Europe.

對於核電和天然氣行業，奧巴馬的計劃既不鼓勵也不抑制，沒有指定的市場份額，也沒有任何補貼。照目前來看，天然氣行業能夠對付，但除非在生產成本削減上取得突破，否則新的核電項目在美國看起來和歐洲一樣難以上馬。

Missing from the proposals is any new push to develop science that will increase the efficiency of energy supply and consum. That is a pity as low-income consumers in countries such as India need fuel sources that are both low cost and low carbon if climate change is to be beaten. But policies directed to developing such technology may come later — there is, after all, more than a year until the election.

計劃沒有提及推動科技發展、力求提高能源供應和使用效率的任何舉措。這令人遺憾，因爲要解決氣候變化問題，印度等低收入國家需要低成本且低碳的燃料來源。但鼓勵此類技術發展的政策可能稍後會出臺——畢竟，距離大選還有一年多時間。

That brings us to the politics of Mr Obama’s plan. It is worthy of Frank Underwood, Kevin Spacey’s Machiavellian anti-hero in the Netflix series, House of Cards . In the black arts of politics, one of the most precious achievements is to define the differences between you and your opponents on your own terms. An is to force opponents into positions they wish to avoid. A third is to divide them against themselves. Mr Obama has managed all three in one go.

現在來看看奧巴馬計劃的政治性。該計劃讓人想到了凱文史派西(Kevin Spacey)在Netflix系列劇《紙牌屋》(House of Cards)中飾演的不擇手段的反派角色弗蘭克褠德伍德(Frank Underwood)。在政治遊戲中，最難得的成就之一是用自己的主張界定你和對手之間的差異。另一個是迫使對手陷入他們希望避免的局面。第三個是讓他們內訌。奧巴馬一舉做到了這三點。

The Republicans predictably walked into the trap. Marco Rubio, the Florida senator seeking the Republican nomination, instantly declared the policy “catastrophic”. Mitch McConnell, the Republican majority leader in the Senate, who campaigned for his seat last year on the slogan “Coal Guns Freedom”, called for individual states to disobey the new laws. Even Jeb Bush, who has been trying to sound rational on the question, was forced to condemn the president’s initiative as “irresponsible”.

共和黨就像預計的那樣落入了圈套。尋求共和黨總統候選人提名的佛羅里達州參議員馬可脠比奧(Marco Rubio)立即宣告這項政策是“災難性的”。參議院共和黨領袖米奇麥康奈爾(Mitch McConnell)呼籲各州不理會新法律——麥康奈爾去年在競選參議員時打出的口號是“煤炭、槍和自由”。就連一直試圖在這個問題上理性表態的傑布布什(Jeb Bush)也被迫指責稱，奧巴馬的計劃“不負責任”。

Given the nature of the Republican voter base and the views of big donors such as the billionaire Koch brothers, those who seek the Republican nomination can do little else. The problem for them (and the beauty of Mr Obama’s political play) is that, as they walk in the direction of those who will determine which of them is the candidate next year, they are walking away from the views of the voters who will determine the outcome of the election. According to the public polls, for instance from the Yale Project on Climate Change, global warming has become a real concern. Coal is seen as dirty and unhealthy. Mrs Clinton, assuming she secures the Democratic nomination, may not win some of the coal states. One of the fascinating subtexts of her initiative, and of the president’s proposals, is the deliberate distancing of the Democratic leadership from organised labour, including the once powerful mining unions. But the calculation must be that she will gain overall by being on the side of the future.

鑑於共和黨選民基礎的性質以及億萬富翁科赫兄弟等大手筆捐助人的觀點，尋求共和黨總統候選人提名的人士幾乎別無選擇。他們的問題（以及奧巴馬政治手段的高明之處）在於，在迎合那些決定明年總統候選人的人羣之際，他們與決定大選結果的廣大選民的觀點疏遠了。例如，耶魯氣候變化項目(Yale Project on Climate Change)的民調顯示，全球變暖已經成爲公衆的切實擔憂。煤炭被認爲是骯髒和不健康的。假設希拉里獲得民主黨總統候選人提名，她可能不會贏得一些煤炭大州的支持。在她的提議以及奧巴馬的計劃中，一個耐人尋味的潛臺詞是，民主黨領導人故意疏遠勞工組織，包括曾經影響力巨大的礦業工會。但他們的盤算肯定是，順應歷史潮流，站在未來這一邊，將使希拉里在大選中獲得更多選票。

Mr Obama’s proposals are detailed and complicated, and will now be subject to every sort of legal challenge. They are unlikely to be implemented in full. In themselves they will not solve the global problem of climate change, nor force any other country to follow suit. But they do serve to define the direction of American energy policy and also of American electoral politics.

奧巴馬的提議詳盡而複雜，將會面對各種法律挑戰。它們不太可能完全得到落實。就這些提議本身而言，它們不會解決氣候變化這一全球問題，也不會迫使其他國家效仿。但它們的確有助於界定美國能源政策以及美國選舉政治的方向。