普京爲何從敘利亞撤軍 Mercurial Putin keeps the west guessing in Syria

Vladimir Putin is full of surprises. His decision to withdraw Russia’s “basic forces” from Syria was forecast by no one. The Russian president’s courtiers will presumably be keeping him abreast of the many interpretations of his latest Syria gambit, no doubt emphasising the sagacity and success of his bold intervention in the region. So what does the balance sheet look like? And, in so far as it is possible to discern the motives of this most mercurial of leaders, what are they?

弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)是個充滿驚奇的人物。沒人預見到他從敘利亞撤出俄軍“主要力量”的決定。想必這位俄羅斯總統的下屬會時時向他報告人們對他在敘利亞的最新動作的各種解讀，他們無疑還會強調他大膽介入該地區的睿智和成功。那麼現在的局面是怎樣的？如果有可能一窺這位極爲善變的領導人的動機，這些動機又是什麼呢？

When the Russian air force entered Syrian airspace last September, three of the president’s aims seemed clear. The first was to salvage the crumbling regime of Bashar al-Assad. The second was to re-establish Russia as an important actor in the Middle East. Mr Putin, who mocks the US and Europe for the fiascos of their regime-changing adventures from Iraq to Libya, also clearly intended to teach the west a lesson — and so relieve western pressure resulting from his own intervention in Ukraine. The lesson turned out to be a Russian remake of “shock and awe”.

去年9月俄羅斯空軍進入敘利亞領空的時候，這位總統似乎有3個明確的目標。首先是挽救搖搖欲墜的巴沙爾•阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)政權。第二是重新確立俄羅斯作爲中東地區重要參與者的地位。嘲笑美歐在從伊拉克到利比亞等地改換政權行動的慘敗的普京，明顯還有意給西方一個教訓——並且減輕西方因爲普京干預烏克蘭事務而對俄羅斯施加的壓力。事實表明這個教訓是俄羅斯版本的“震懾與威嚇”。

From the outset Russian warplanes struck at Sunni rebels threatening Damascus and Mr Assad’s coastal enclave in north-west Syria, rather than at Isis jihadis — a declared target of the operation. He used peace negotiations jointly chaired with the US in Geneva as a smokescreen behind which to lay waste to any middle ground between the Assad regime and Isis. This showed up the west as too feckless to help Sunni rebels whom the US and regional allies such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey had backed against the Assads.

從一開始，俄羅斯的戰鬥機打擊的就不是其所宣稱的行動目標——“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)聖戰分子，而是威脅大馬士革和阿薩德在敘利亞西北沿海地區飛地的遜尼派反叛分子。普京利用美俄共同主持的日內瓦和平談判爲煙幕，摧毀了阿薩德政權和ISIS之間的任何妥協空間。這讓西方幫助遜尼派反叛分子的舉動顯得毫無意義。美國及其地區盟友沙特和土耳其等國此前一直支持這些反叛分子對抗阿薩德政權。

The regime regained ground. More refugees swarmed to the Turkish border. Mr Putin’s Syria policy was doing double duty as his European policy, exacerbating the migrant crisis pulling the EU apart, and polarising the politics of some of its member states.

阿薩德政權收復了失地。更多難民涌向土耳其邊境。普京的敘利亞政策正如他的歐洲政策一樣一箭雙鵰，一方面加深了撕裂歐盟(EU)的移民危機，另一方面也使歐盟的一些成員國的政治兩極化。

A bonus for Mr Putin was to add to the discomfiture of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, through whose territory runs the refugee road to Europe. Having already contributed to the de facto partition of Syria by hardening the defences of the Assad statelet, Mr Putin then extended Russia’s complicit support to US-backed Syrian Kurdish militia, whose fight against Isis is enabling them to assemble a Kurdish entity below Turkey’s border, the dissolution of which is now Mr Erdogan’s paramount aim.

對普京而言，額外收穫是讓土耳其總統雷傑普•塔伊普•埃爾多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)的處境更爲難堪，該國是移民前往歐洲的通路。通過加強阿薩德統轄領土的防務力量，助推敘利亞的事實分裂後，普京又爲得到美國支持的敘利亞庫爾德民兵組織提供支持，這些組織與ISIS的鬥爭使他們得以在土耳其邊境下方集結爲一個庫爾德人羣體。促使這個羣體解體是埃爾多安目前的首要目標。

But what is the Kremlin’s game now? The Russian pullback coincides with the resumption of peace talks in Geneva. Despite this month’s partial ceasefire in Syria, these still look forlorn, even if Mr Putin says his aim was always to create conditions for a political transition out of the war.

克里姆林宮現在在打什麼算盤呢？在俄羅斯撤軍的同一時間，日內瓦的和平談判也重新啓動了。儘管敘利亞本月實現了部分停火，這些談判看起來依然難以取得成功，即使普京表示他的目標一直是爲通過政治手段結束戰爭創造條件。

He might conclude that Mr Assad has no long-term future. His minority regime has committed mass murder among the majority Sunni population. Why incur the bitter enmity of Sunnis in Syria, throughout the Middle East and inside Russia’s borders? Russia arguably has most to fear from foreign fighters returning from Syria and Iraq — Isis typically expends European volunteers as suicide bombers to clear a path for elite fighters such as battle-hardened Chechens.

普京可能得出結論，從長期來看阿薩德沒有未來。他的少數族裔政權在佔多數的遜尼派人口中製造了大規模屠殺。爲何要在敘利亞、整個中東和俄羅斯國內招致遜尼派穆斯林的仇恨呢？可以說，俄羅斯最爲憂慮的是從敘利亞和伊拉克返回的外籍士兵——ISIS通常將歐洲志願者用作自殺性炸彈襲擊者，爲精英戰士掃清道路，比如久經沙場的車臣分子。

Iran, which jointly holds Mr Assad as a ward of state, may also judge that to continue along Russia’s scorched-earth path in Syria would scupper its re-engagement with the west and sabotage any chance it has of being accepted as a legitimate regional power by Sunni Arabs. Russian and Iranian ministers have met several times in Tehran and Moscow over the past month.

和俄方一起將阿薩德作爲保護對象的伊朗或者會做出這樣的判斷：繼續俄羅斯在敘利亞的焦土政策會破壞伊朗與西方重新建立的聯繫，並且毀掉伊朗被遜尼派阿拉伯人接納爲合法地區力量的任何機會。過去一個月中俄羅斯和伊朗的部長們在德黑蘭和莫斯科進行了幾次會晤。

So far, so many hypotheses. As some Russian jets start withdrawing, only Mr Putin — the geopolitical puppeteer with a taste for intrigue — can know if this is the start of Syria’s endgame.

到目前爲止有太多的猜測。在一些俄羅斯戰機開始撤離之際，只有普京這個帶着一絲密謀味道的地緣政治木偶操縱者，才知道這是否是敘利亞終局的開始。