美國應樂見俄羅斯出兵敘利亞 Obama will have to rely on ugly allies to fight Isis

What are the Russians up to in Syria? Nothing unusual, says the Kremlin. Russia, it reminds us, has been providing Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad with weapons and advisers for quite some time. But Washington sees something bigger going on. Anonymous US officials have told Reuters that Russia has sent aircraft, tank landing ships and naval infantry forces to the country in recent days. It would not be the first time President Vladimir Putin has dispatched troops and weapons that he won’t acknowledge.

俄羅斯人在敘利亞幹什麼？克里姆林宮說，沒什麼不尋常。俄羅斯提醒我們，他們向敘利亞總統巴沙爾阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)提供武器及顧問已經有很久了。但華盛頓看出了更大的動靜。不願透露姓名的美國官員對路透社(Reuters)表示，俄羅斯近日向敘利亞派出了飛機、坦克登陸艦及海軍步兵部隊。這不會是俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾渠京(Vladimir Putin)第一次在不肯承認的情況下向海外派遣軍隊和武器。

It appears the Russians are preparing to play a bigger role in Syria because they want to bolster Mr Assad and ensure that future talks on the country’s future do not include western demands for him to be ousted. After all, Syria is Russia’s best foothold in the region. Historic ties make it a reliable ally, and the Assad government provides Russia with a Mediterranean naval base. Mr Putin also means firmly to set Russia’s position as an indispensable player in Middle East politics, and he knows he will get away with this power play.

俄羅斯人似乎準備在敘利亞發揮更大的作用，因爲他們希望支撐阿薩德，確保有朝一日關於敘利亞未來的談判不包括西方讓其下臺的要求。畢竟，敘利亞是俄羅斯在中東地區的最佳立足點。歷史淵源使敘利亞成爲俄羅斯的可靠盟友，阿薩德政府爲俄羅斯提供了一個地中海海軍基地。普京也堅定地希望確立俄羅斯作爲中東政治中不可或缺一員的地位，他知道自己可以玩轉這種權力遊戲。

Should Washington worry? Yes, but not about Mr Putin.

華盛頓應該擔心嗎？是的，但不應該擔心普京。

It’s time for the Obama administration to accept some cold hard facts. Its Syria policy is a failure. Mr Assad remains in power. He is probably still using weapons and tactics that violate international conventions. The nuclear deal with Iran will bring Tehran more revenue to bolster his rule. Nearly a quarter of a million Syrians have been killed, refugees are on the move, and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (also known as Isis) continues to gain ground and new recruits. It’s the worst of all possible worlds.

奧巴馬政府該承認一些嚴酷的事實了。其敘利亞政策已失敗。阿薩德仍在臺上。他很可能仍在使用違反國際公約的武器和戰術。美國與伊朗達成的核協議將爲德黑蘭帶來更多收入，使其能夠支撐阿薩德的統治。近25萬敘利亞人在內戰中喪生，難民不斷外逃，而“伊拉克與黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(Isis)還在繼續擴大地盤並招募新成員。這真是所有可能的情形中最糟糕的景象。

The failure of the US administration’s Syria plan is exceeded only by the senselessness of its Russia policy. The primary lesson that Americans should have learnt in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan is that, no matter how powerful you are, it is hard to defeat an enemy that cares much more about the outcome than you do. The Obama administration stumbled into conflict with Russia over Ukraine, a country that will always matter much more to Moscow than to Washington, and Mr Putin is now reminding the world that Russia is too big to isolate.

就奧巴馬政府而言，比敘利亞計劃失敗更糟糕的是其匪夷所思的俄羅斯政策。美國人本應從越南、伊拉克及阿富汗戰爭汲取的主要教訓是，不管你多麼強大，都很難打敗一個比你更關心戰爭結果的敵人。奧巴馬政府在烏克蘭問題上不知不覺地捲入了與俄羅斯的衝突，而烏克蘭對莫斯科歷來都比其對華盛頓重要得多，同時普京現在提醒整個世界：俄羅斯大到無法被孤立。

That’s the past. It’s now time to focus on the future of the increasingly unstable Middle East. Following the final withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, President Barack Obama has worked hard to minimise American involvement in the region. That is the right approach. He knows there is little US public support for extended commitments of US troops and taxpayer dollars to try to manage this unmanageable neighbourhood.

這些都是過去式了。現在應該聚焦于越來越不穩定的中東的未來。美軍撤出伊拉克之後，巴拉克攠巴馬(Barack Obama)總統努力盡量減小美國對該地區的介入。這是正確的做法。他知道，美國公衆不支持長期投入美軍以及納稅人資金來管理這個管不好的地區。

But less involvement does not eliminate the need to set policy priorities. The primary US commitment in the Middle East should be to destroy Isis. This band of nihilist militants is now the best-equipped, best-funded terrorist organisation in history. It demands US and international attention. It is Isis that threatens to destabilise countries across the Middle East. It is raising alert levels everywhere by attracting recruits, imitators and allies around the world. The violence it generates is now filling refugee camps in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan. It is flooding Europe with swelling numbers of desperate migrants.

但是減少介入並沒有消除設定政策輕重緩急的必要。美國對中東的首要承諾應該是消滅Isis。如今，這羣肆無忌憚的武裝分子是史上裝備最先進、資金最充裕的恐怖組織。這需要引起美國和國際社會的關注。Isis已經危及中東各國的穩定。通過吸引新兵、模仿者以及盟友，Isis敲響了世界各地的警鐘。Isis的暴力正使土耳其、黎巴嫩和約旦的難民營人滿爲患，還有越來越多絕望的難民涌向歐洲。

The Obama administration, and a majority of the American people, want to avoid sending American soldiers back into Iraq yet again, and Isis cannot be destroyed from the air. Washington will therefore need friends to help. Nato allies (including Turkey), Iran, Iraqi militia groups (Sunni and Shia) and Russia all have good reason to want to put Isis on its back. All will be needed.

奧巴馬政府以及大多數美國人都想避免讓美軍官兵重返伊拉克，而僅靠空中打擊又無法消滅Isis。因此，華盛頓需要盟友的幫助。北約盟國（包括土耳其）、伊朗、伊拉克民兵組織（遜尼派和什葉派）以及俄羅斯都有很好的理由要消滅Isis。這一切都是美國需要的。

That means swallowing the idea that Iran, soon to be freed from sanctions, is now a regional powerbroker, that Mr Assad will remain in power and that Russia will play a larger and lasting role in the Middle East. Mr Assad will use Iranian cash and Mr Putin’s military support to sideline the Syrian rebels that Washington wants to help. A strengthened alliance of Russia, Iran and Syria will put Israel, the Saudis and other US allies on edge. European sanctions on Russia won’t last for ever. The US will act in the Middle East only to defend its core national interests.

這意味着美國將不得不接受一些令人不快的現實：即將被解除制裁伊朗的已成爲地區權力掮客；阿薩德將繼續掌權；俄羅斯將在中東發揮更大且持久的作用。阿薩德將使用伊朗提供的現金和普京的軍事支持，把華盛頓想幫助的敘利亞反政府武裝力量排擠出局。俄羅斯、伊朗及敘利亞之間加強盟友關係，將令以色列、沙特阿拉伯及其他美國的盟國感到不安。歐洲對俄羅斯的制裁不會永久持續下去。美國只有在捍衛核心國家利益時纔會在中東採取行動。

Accepting this new reality requires an exceptionally painful climb down for the US president. Some will attack him for increasing US involvement in the Middle East. Others will attack him for limiting that involvement and for relying on an undeniably ugly collection of partners. But unless and until the Obama administration comes up with a better plan to defeat Isis, there is no good alternative. Leadership requires tough choices. Syria is an excellent place to start.

接受這些新的現實需要美國總統做出極爲痛苦的讓步。有人會攻擊他加大了美國對中東的介入，而其他人則會攻擊他限制了美國的介入，並依賴一羣無比醜陋的夥伴。但除非奧巴馬政府拿出打敗Isis的更好計劃，否則就不存在好的選擇。領導力需要能夠做出艱難抉擇。從敘利亞開始再好不過。