俄羅斯與西方和解還是對抗 A case for rapprochement with Russia

In the aftermath of the Paris attacks, two Pictures sent a powerful message about how international politics are changing. One was of Barack Obama hunched in discussion in a hotel lobby with Vladimir Putin. The frosty body language of their previous meeting at the UN had given way to something more businesslike. The US and Russian presidents almost looked like colleagues. Picture number two, artfully released by the defence ministry in Moscow, was of a Russian bomb being loaded on a plane in Syria with the words “That’s for Paris” scrawled on the side.

巴黎恐怖襲擊發生後，兩張照片透露出了國際政治變化動向的強有力信號。第一張是在一家酒店的大堂，巴拉克攠巴馬(Barack Obama)彎腰和弗拉基米爾渠京(Vladimir Putin)在交談。倆人之前在聯合國(UN)會晤時冷淡的肢體語言已經不見，取而代之的是更加公事公辦的姿態。美俄兩國總統看上去幾乎像是同事。第二張照片則是俄羅斯國防部刻意發佈的，照片上一枚俄羅斯炸彈正在被裝上一架在敘利亞的飛機，炸彈側面寫着“爲了巴黎(That's for Paris)”的字樣。

Together the two images highlighted an interesting possibility. Might Russia and the west begin to bury their differences by making common cause in the war against Isis? The idea horrifies many Russia analysts in the west and presents enormous complications. Nonetheless, it is worth a try for a number of reasons.

把這兩張照片放在一起，突顯出了一種耐人尋味的可能性。俄羅斯和西方是否有可能拋開分歧，把對抗ISIS之戰作爲共同事業？這個想法嚇壞了西方許多關注俄羅斯的分析人士，而且呈現一種極其錯綜複雜的局面。不過，出於多個原因，這種想法是值得一試的。

First, foreign policy is about setting priorities — and after Paris, with the threat of further attacks to come, the defeat of Isis is rightly the top western priority. Second, there have been some modest but important signs that Russia is backing off in Ukraine. The ceasefire in the east of the country held throughout the autumn. There has been a flare-up of fighting in recent days but not all of it has been driven by the Russians. Finally, neither the west nor Russia has a monopoly of wisdom on the Syrian conflict. Finding a middle ground between the entrenched positions of Moscow and Washington could help end the conflict.

首先，外交政策的要點是確定優先事項。在巴黎恐襲之後，由於還可能發生更多襲擊，擊敗ISIS勢必成爲西方的首要任務。其次，一些不太惹眼但意義重大的信號表明，俄羅斯正在逐漸撤出烏克蘭。整個秋天，烏克蘭東部都處於停火狀態。最近幾天曾突發戰事，不過並不是全都由俄羅斯人發動的。最後，不管西方還是俄羅斯對敘利亞衝突都沒有獨具一格的明智見解。在俄羅斯政府和美國政府根深蒂固的立場之間找到一箇中間地帶，將有助於結束衝突。

The Putin government’s fiercest western critics argue that Russia’s annexation of Crimea and military engagement in eastern Ukraine were such fundamental breaches of international law that Russia ultimately presents a bigger menace to the world order than Isis. But that is a hard argument to make to European and American publics NO APOSTROPHE - TANSA NOTWITHSTANDINGat the moment, who can see that Islamist terrorists pose a direct and immediate security threat to the major cities of the west in a way that Russia does not.

最嚴厲抨擊普京政府的西方批評人士聲稱，俄羅斯吞併克里米亞的行徑及其在烏克蘭東部的軍事行動，從根本上違背了國際法，因此俄羅斯最終將給全球秩序帶來比ISIS更大的威脅。然而，就眼下來說，這個理由很難說服歐美公衆，他們可以看到，伊斯蘭主義恐怖分子正在給西方大城市帶來直接而迫切的安全威脅，而俄羅斯不會造成這種威脅。

The Russia hawks point out that the war unleashed in Ukraine has cost thousands of lives. Russia’s military build-up continues. The Russian government has embraced a highly nationalistic and anti-western worldview.

主張對俄羅斯強硬的鷹派人士指出，在烏克蘭爆發的戰爭導致成千上萬的人喪生。俄羅斯的軍事集結仍在繼續。俄羅斯政府抱持一種高度民族主義和反西方的世界觀。

Also, Mr Putin has a record of turning aggression on and off as political circumstances dictate. Taking the pressure off now, they argue, might encourage future Crimeas.

而且，普京在過去也有過隨着政治形勢變化而先侵後撤的做法。批評人士稱，假如現在解除對俄羅斯的壓力，未來可能出現更多個克里米亞。

These arguments cannot be waved away. So any move towards a rapprochement with Russia has to be gradual and conditional. The EU has correctly decided not to ease sanctions on Russia, for now. But if the ceasefire in Ukraine is restored and holds, and Russia is constructive on Syria, then some alleviation of sanctions becomes much more likely in the first half of 2016. The Russians will in any case know that sanctions can be reimposed and intensified if circumstances change.

對這些說法不能忽視。因此，任何與俄羅斯修復關係的舉措，必須以循序漸進的方式進行，並且要附帶條件。歐盟已明智地決定，暫時不會放寬對俄羅斯的制裁。不過如果烏克蘭恢復並一直保持停火，並且俄羅斯在敘利亞問題上發揮建設性作用，那麼在2016年上半年減輕部分制裁的可能性就大多了。不管怎樣，俄羅斯人知道，一旦情況有變，制裁還可能再次實施並加大力度。

Those who oppose an attempt at rapprochement with Russia also argue that Mr Putin’s real motive in Syria has less to do with the defeat of Isis than with re-establishing Russian power in the Middle East and handing the US a symbolic defeat. They point out that most early Russian air strikes were aimed at the “moderate” Syrian opposition, rather than Isis. They add that Russia’s aim of keeping President Bashar al-Assad in power will ultimately empower the jihadis — because hatred of Mr Assad is their biggest recruiting sergeant.

那些反對與俄羅斯和解的人士還說，普京在敘利亞的真實動機與其說是爲了打敗ISIS，不如說是要重建俄羅斯在中東的影響力，並讓美國遭遇一次具有象徵意義的失敗。他們指出，俄羅斯早期的空襲中，多數目標對準“溫和的”敘利亞反對派而不是ISIS。他們補充說，俄羅斯確保敘利亞總統巴沙爾阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)繼續掌權的目標，最終會令聖戰者壯大勢力——因爲對阿薩德的憎恨就是他們最有力的招兵工具。

These points also have some force. But they still do not invalidate the case for trying to work with Moscow on Syria. The Russian government has now accepted that Isis was behind the attack on a civilian airliner in Sinai that killed hundreds of Russian citizens. Perhaps as a result, in recent days many more of its air strikes have been directed at Isis.

這些論點也有一定說服力。不過它們仍不能抵消嘗試與俄羅斯在敘利亞問題上合作的理由。俄羅斯政府已承認一架民航客機在西奈半島遭襲的幕後黑手是ISIS，該事件導致數百名俄羅斯公民喪生。也許是出於這個原因，最近幾天俄羅斯以ISIS爲目標的空襲多了許多。

The fate of Mr Assad remains a significant dividing line between the western powers and Russia. The big regional powers are even more bitterly divided over this issue, with Iran backing Mr Assad to the hilt and the Saudis and Turks demanding that he leave office.

阿薩德的命運依然是西方強國與俄羅斯的重大分歧所在。中東地區主要國家在這個問題上更是水火不相容。其中，伊朗完全支持阿薩德，而沙特和土耳其則要求他下臺。

The western powers and their allies are right that Mr Assad’s brutality has served as a rallying cry for Sunni Arabs and helped the jihadi cause. But the Russian response also has merit. Their argument is that any vacuum after the fall of Mr Assad is likely to be filled by some mixture of violent chaos and Islamism — circumstances that could be designed for Isis to thrive in. Conditions on the ground in Syria and the experiences of Iraq and Libya make this Russian analysis hard to refuteTHIS SHOULD BE REFUTE - TANSA NOTWITHSTANDING. Without really acknowledging it, the US has in any case moved gradually towards the Russian position, dropping its insistence on the immediate departure of Mr Assad. The very real threat that both Russia and the western powers face from Isis may now concentrate minds enough to force them to bridge their remaining differences over the fate of Mr Assad.

西方強國及他們的盟友認爲，阿薩德的殘暴爲遜尼派阿拉伯人提供了戰鬥口號，並幫助聖戰發展，這一點確實沒錯。不過俄羅斯的應對也有值得稱道之處。他們的理由是，一旦阿薩德倒臺形成權力真空，就可能被暴力動盪和伊斯蘭主義的某種混合體填補——這種局面簡直就是刻意要使ISIS發展壯大。敘利亞的地面形勢以及伊拉克和利比亞的經歷，令人很難駁斥俄羅斯方面的這種觀點。美國雖沒有真正承認這種觀點，終歸還是逐漸轉向了俄羅斯的立場，不再一味堅持阿薩德必須立即下臺。俄羅斯和西方強國都面臨着來自ISIS的真實威脅，這種威脅如今或許已足夠凝聚共識，迫使他們彌合在阿薩德命運問題上依然存在的分歧。