暫時的同盟 中俄聯手抗衡美國

The announcement of closer Russian-Chinese military co-operation is a striking sign of how geo-political competition is hotting up – as both Russia and China look to push back against a US-dominated world.

俄羅斯與中國關於加強軍事合作的聲明是地緣政治競賽正在升溫的一個顯著跡象，兩國都希望對抗美國主導的世界。

Russia, in the midst of the crisis in Ukraine, is eager to show that it has alternatives to the West and a powerful new ally in China. China also has a strong motivation to push back against America. The Chinese greatly resent America’s much-ballyhooed “pivot to Asia” – which includes stationing 60 per cent of the US navy in the Pacific. One of China’s weaknesses in the contest with the US for dominance in the Asia-Pacific is that it has few clear allies in the region. By contrast, America has defence treaties with Japan and South Korea, and close ties with several South-East Asian nations. However, by getting closer to the Russians, the Chinese potentially set up a powerful nascent alliance of their own.

處於烏克蘭危機中的俄羅斯急於表明它在與西方關係惡化後，找到了中國這個強大的新盟友。中國也有對抗美國的強烈動機。中國對美國大肆宣傳“重返亞洲”——其中包括把60%的美國海軍派駐到太平洋——很不滿意。在與美國競爭亞太地區的主導權中，中國的弱點之一就是它在該地區沒有多少明確的盟友。相比之下，美國不但與日本和韓國簽有防禦條約，還與多個東南亞國家關係密切。然而，通過接近俄羅斯，中國可能會建立起一個屬於自己的強大的新生聯盟。

It is yet to be seen how much substance there are to these ties. But two of the announcements made by the Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, are particularly eye-catching. First, his statement that Russia and China are intent on forming a “collective regional security system” suggests that this is potentially a very ambitious arrangement – that might go far beyond the occasional joint naval exercise. “Collective security” arrangements imply a Nato-like commitment to collective self-defence. Second, the suggestion that China and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the Mediterranean next year is also slightly mind-boggling. If we see the Chinese navy on patrol in the Med, it really will feel like a new world.

這些新的關係到底有多少實質性內容還有待觀察。但俄羅斯國防部長謝爾蓋•紹伊古(Sergei Shoigu)所作的聲明中有兩點格外搶眼。首先，他關於俄羅斯和中國有意建立“區域性集體安全機制”的言論表明這可能是一個極具雄心的計劃，或許會遠超聯合海軍演習。“集體安全”計劃意味着一個類似北約(Nato)的集體自衛權承諾。其次，關於中國與俄羅斯明年將在地中海舉行聯合海軍演習的說法也有點令人不敢置信。如果我們看到中國海軍在地中海巡邏，那感覺真的像進入了一個新世界。

The attractions for the Chinese and Russians of all this – however – are clear. They both deeply resent America’s global military reach. The fact that the US navy patrols off the Chinese coast, while Nato-nations are up against the Russian border is a source of grievance. By beginning to hold naval exercises in the West’s backyard (although not quite the Caribbean, yet), the Russians and Chinese seem to be engaging in a very deliberate exercise in push-back.

然而，這些安排對中俄兩國的吸引力是顯而易見的。兩國都對美國的全球軍事影響力深感不滿。美國海軍在中國海岸附近水域巡邏，北約國家勢力直逼俄羅斯邊境，這些事實是中俄不滿情緒的根源之一。俄羅斯和中國通過開始在西方後院（雖然還不至於在加勒比海）舉行海軍演習，貌似是在爲對抗進行一次深謀遠慮的演習。

But it is premature to say that a Russia-China bloc is emerging that is now in a full-on confrontation with the West. On the contrary, China seems to be skilfully playing both sides. It is interesting that this tilt to Russia comes just a week after a relatively warm and productive summit between the US and Chinese presidents – that resulted in an important agreement on climate change.

但要就此說“俄中聯盟”正在成型且與西方形成全面對抗之勢還爲時過早。恰恰相反，中國似乎在兩邊玩弄手腕。有意思的是，美中元首剛參加完較爲友好且富有成效的峯會，發表了關於氣候變化的一個重要聲明，一週後中國就又向俄羅斯傾斜了。

It is clear that Russia and China share some common resentments about the US. Specifically, both feel bitter about America’s refusal to grant them dominance of their own neighbourhoods. Both feel internally threatened by US democracy promotion – hence the Russian defence minister’s angry references to America’s promotion of “colour revolutions”. Both nations dislike US interventionism and the idea of a unipolar world, which is why they are spending a lot of money on weapons to try and close the military gap.

俄羅斯和中國顯然都對美國懷有一些共同的不滿情緒。具體而言，兩國都對美國拒絕給予他們對自己周邊地區的主導權感到憤怒。兩國都覺得內政上受到美國民主推廣的威脅，所以俄羅斯國防部長才會憤怒地提到美國助長了“顏色革命”。兩國都不喜歡美國的干涉主義和單極世界的想法，正是這一原因導致他們在武器上花費大量金錢，以求縮短與美國的軍事差距。

But Russia is much weaker than China. Its economy is in bad shape, and Russia’s relationship with the US is now so bad, that – unlike China – it no longer has an American option. As a result, Russia had to accept a disadvantageous gas price in the energy deal it negotiated with China in May. China is also now pressing Russia to sell it high-tech weaponry that the Russians formerly withheld.

但俄羅斯的國力比中國要弱得多。俄羅斯經濟情況不佳，現在與美國的關係也糟糕透頂，與中國不同，俄羅斯已經沒有了“美國選項”。這導致俄羅斯5月在與中國進行能源交易談判時，不得不接受一個不利的天然氣價格。中國現在還在要求俄羅斯向其出售高科技武器裝備，俄羅斯之前對此是堅決拒絕的。

What is more, Russia still has deep misgivings about the long-term implications of China’s rise. Russia’s Far East is resource-rich, under-populated and large parts of it were colonised from China in the nineteenth century. The Russian-Chinese rapprochement is certainly something to watch in the short term. In the long run, it could yet sour.

更重要的是，俄羅斯對中國崛起的長期影響仍懷着很深的顧慮。俄羅斯的遠東地區資源豐富，人口稀少，而且大部分都是19世紀從中國殖民得來的。俄中友好關係在短期內肯定是有看頭的。但長期來看，有可能變得不那麼和睦。