西方對俄製裁壓垮歐亞聯盟
Cracks are beginning to show in Vladimir Putin’s grand project to form a Eurasian union to rival the EU as Russia’s partners have so far balked at joining Moscow’s trade war with the west.
俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)組建“歐亞聯盟”(Eurasian Union)以對抗歐盟的宏大項目開始出現裂痕，因爲俄羅斯的合作伙伴迄今不願加入莫斯科與西方的貿易戰。When the presidents of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan gathered in May to sign the Eurasian Economic Union into existence, it was hailed as an “epochal” moment with geostrategic implications.
今年5月俄羅斯、白俄羅斯和哈薩克斯坦的總統齊聚一堂，簽約成立歐亞經濟聯盟(Eurasian Economic Union)的時候，此舉被譽爲地緣戰略的“劃時代”時刻。“Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan are moving towards a completely new level of co-operation,” Mr Putin said at a ceremony in Astana’s Palace of Independence, Kazakhstan.
普京在哈薩克斯坦首都阿斯塔納獨立宮舉行的一個慶典儀式上表示：“俄羅斯、白俄羅斯和哈薩克斯坦的合作正在邁向全新的水平。”
But when the Kremlin last month announced a ban on imports of meat, fish, fruit, vegetables, and dairy products from Europe and other western countries, Belarus and Kazakhstan refused to follow suit.
但是，當克里姆林宮上月宣佈禁止從歐洲和其他西方國家進口肉、魚、水果、蔬菜和乳製品的時候，白俄羅斯和哈薩克斯坦拒絕跟隨。
“This is our internal affair,” said Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus. “We need Polish apples . . . We need some German delicacies.”
白俄羅斯總統亞歷山大•盧卡申科(Alexander Lukashenko)表示：“這是我們的內部事務。我們需要波蘭的蘋果……我們需要一些德國美食。”Nursultan Nazarbayev, the Kazakh president, implicitly criticised Russian policy last week in Minsk, saying tit-for-tat sanctions were “a road to nowhere”.
哈薩克斯坦總統努爾蘇丹•納扎爾巴耶夫(Nursultan Nazarbayev)上週在明斯克含蓄批評了俄羅斯的政策，稱針鋒相對的制裁是“無果之路”。The Eurasian Economic Union is viewed by some in the west as an attempt by Mr Putin to recreate the Soviet Union.
歐亞經濟聯盟被西方某些人視爲普京重建蘇聯的努力。Yet the lack of a common stance undermines its stated aim of creating a common market with free movement of capital, goods, services, and labour.
然而，由於缺乏共同立場，其宣示的創建一個資本、商品、服務和勞動力自由流動的共同市場的目標遭到削弱。“It’s very much a problem for relations inside the union,” says Dosym Satpayev, head of Risk Assessment Group, a think-tank in Almaty. “I am not sure that this integration project will exist in the long term.”
阿拉木圖智庫風險評估集團(Risk Assessment Group)掌門人多瑟姆•薩帕耶夫(Dosym Satpayev)表示：“歐亞聯盟內部關係存在很大的問題。我不確定這個一體化項目是否會長期存在。”The strains have become clearer in recent days. Last week, amid growing concerns about Russia’s stand-off with the west, Mr Nazarbayev, who first proposed the idea of a union of post-Soviet states two decades ago, raised the possibility of leaving it.
近日這種內部緊張變得更爲明顯。上週，在各方越來越擔心俄羅斯與西方對峙的背景下，納扎爾巴耶夫提出了退出歐亞聯盟的可能性。納扎爾巴耶夫在20年前首先提出了後蘇聯國家成立聯盟的想法。“Kazakhstan has the right to leave the Eurasian Economic Union,” he said in an interview with state television. “Kazakhstan will not enter an organisation which threatens our independence.”
他在接受官方電視臺採訪時表示：“哈薩克斯坦有權退出歐亞經濟聯盟。哈薩克斯坦不會加入危及本國獨立的組織。”Both Moscow and Astana play down the prospect of Kazakhstan’s leaving the EEU, which is not due to come into existence formally until January.
莫斯科和阿斯塔納雙方都有意淡化哈薩克斯坦退出歐亞經濟聯盟的前景。歐亞經濟聯盟要到明年1月纔會正式問世。Nonetheless, officials and analysts agree that the crisis in Ukraine has strained relations. “It is clear now that this association with Russia can cost Kazakhstan dearly,” says one person with knowledge of government thinking in Astana.
然而，官員和分析師們同意烏克蘭危機讓各方關係緊張的看法。一位瞭解阿斯塔納政府思路的人士表示：“現在明顯的是，與俄羅斯的這種聯繫可能讓哈薩克斯坦吃大虧。”Kazakhstan has long sought to balance the competing interests of its two powerful neighbours, Russia and China. But its strong trade, financial and social ties with Russia mean that sanctions against Moscow are inevitably affecting Kazakhstan, says Umut Shayakhmetova, chairman of the board of Halyk Bank, Kazakhstan’s second-largest lender.
哈薩克斯坦長期尋求平衡兩大鄰國俄羅斯和中國相互競爭的利益。但哈薩克斯坦第二大銀行——國民銀行(Halyk Bank)董事長烏穆特•沙亞赫梅託瓦(Umut Shayakhmetova)表示，該國與俄羅斯密切的貿易、金融和社會聯繫意味着，對莫斯科的制裁將不可避免地影響哈薩克斯坦。“We are already getting lots of compliance questions from western banks,” she says, predicting the effect of sanctions against Moscow would be “very bad” for Kazakhstan.
沙亞赫梅託瓦表示：“西方銀行已經對我們提出了許多合規問題。”她預計，制裁莫斯科將對哈薩克斯坦產生“非常不利”的影響。Kazakhstan’s economy is already feeling the chill, with gross domestic product growth slowing to 3.9 per cent in the first half of the year from 6 per cent last year, while trade with Russia has fallen by a fifth. The country’s economy minister last month revealed that it had prepared a Plan C in the event of further western sanctions against Russia.
哈薩克斯坦的經濟已經感受到寒流，今年上半年國內生產總值(GDP)增長從去年的6%放緩至3.9%，同時與俄羅斯的貿易下降五分之一。哈薩克斯坦經濟部長上月披露稱，該國已經準備了一份C計劃，以應對西方可能進一步對俄羅斯施加的制裁。“Reciprocal sanctions have been taken between countries accounting for 60 per cent of global GDP – this implies serious adjustments,” Mr Nazarbayev said upon opening a new session of the Kazakh parliament yesterday.
納扎爾巴耶夫日前在哈薩克斯坦議會開始新的會期時表示：“佔全球GDP 60%的國家實施了針鋒相對的制裁，這意味着將會出現嚴重的調整。”But Mr Putin has appeared irked. Speaking at a town hall-style gathering, he took a question on whether Kazakhstan could see “a Ukrainian scenario” when Mr Nazarbayev is succeeded as president.
但普京似乎被激怒了。他在一個基層集會上被問到，當納扎爾巴耶夫卸任總統、由其他人接替的時候，哈薩克斯坦是否會出現“烏克蘭情景”？Given how carefully choreographed Mr Putin’s public appearances are, the question itself touched a nerve in Kazakhstan.
鑑於普京在公衆面前的形象是經過精心設計的，這個問題本身就觸動了哈薩克斯坦的神經。The country’s single greatest uncertainty is what will happen after Mr Nazarbayev, who has ruled since the break-up of the Soviet Union, stands aside or dies.
哈薩克斯坦最大的不確定性是，在納扎爾巴耶夫下臺或死亡後將會出現何種局面。納扎爾巴耶夫自蘇聯解體後一直統治着哈薩克斯坦。Mr Putin praised the Kazakh president’s intelligence before asserting that “the Kazakhs never had statehood” before 1991. He was convinced that Kazakhstan would remain in the EEU, he added, because its people recognised that it was “good for them to remain in the sphere of the so-called greater Russian world, which is a part of global civilisation”.
普京首先讚揚哈薩克斯坦總統非常聰明，然後宣稱，在1991年前“哈薩克斯坦國從未存在過”。他補充稱，他認爲哈薩克斯坦將會留在歐亞經濟聯盟，因爲其民衆認識到，“留在所謂的大俄羅斯世界的勢力範圍內是有利的，大俄羅斯世界是全球文明的一部分。”The comment was taken as part threat, part insult in Kazakhstan which, like Ukraine, has regions with a majority ethnic Russian population, fuelling fears it might share Kiev’s fate.
哈薩克斯坦認爲這番話一半是威脅，一半是侮辱。與烏克蘭一樣，在哈薩克斯坦的某些地區，俄羅斯族人口占絕大多數，這令人擔心它可能遭遇與基輔類似的命運。
