德國總理默克爾爲什麼希望IMF拉加德出任歐盟主席

Europe is not quite the basket case it was a few years ago. But with low-as-you-can-go-growth, mounds of debt, throngs of unemployed youth and a rising tide of Euroskepticism, the European Union, to put it kindly, is still in a tough spot.

如今的歐洲已經不再是幾年前那個毫無希望的人。但一點點經濟增長、一大堆債務、大批失業的年輕人和歐元懷疑論不斷升溫，歐盟往好了說也仍舊困難重重。

As if the above didn’t make it obvious already, it’s also in need of a strong leader.

如果上面這些還說得不夠清楚，換句話說，歐盟還需要一位強大的領袖。

In theory, Europe has a spot at the top in which a real leader might sit and wield some gavel of authority, clarity, and resolute power—and that is the high office of President of the European Commission.

理論上歐洲有一個最高職位，一位真正的領袖可以在這個位置上施展權威，廓清迷霧，行使絕對權力——這個職位就是歐盟委員會（European Commission）主席一職。

In reality, Europe has nothing of the kind. Which would explain why few but his immediate family and a handful of bureaucrats in Brussels know precisely who the current holder of that office is. (For the record, it’s Jose-Manuel Barroso, a former Prime Minister of Portugal, law professor, and one-time student at Georgetown.)

但事實上，歐洲根本沒有這樣一個職位。這可以解釋爲什麼只有他的直系近親與布魯塞爾的幾位官員明確知道目前的歐盟委員會主席到底是誰。（他就是若澤-曼努埃爾o巴羅佐，葡萄牙前總理，法學教授，曾在美國喬治敦大學求學。）

All of which brings us to Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and No. 13 on Fortune’s 2014 list of the 50 World’s Greatest Leaders. There are some who now hope that Lagarde will emerge as a candidate for the European Commission presidency—whose role is to oversee the body that proposes and enforces EU laws—when the current office-holder’s second five-year term ends Later this year.

由此，人們將目標投向了國際貨幣基金組織總裁克里斯蒂娜o拉加德，2014年《財富》全球50位領導力榜樣排行榜排名第13。有些人希望，今年晚些時候現任歐盟主席結束第二個5年任期後，拉加德能成爲候選人，負責管理歐盟立法和執法機構。

One such booster, apparently, is Angela Merkel, Germany’s well-regarded Chancellor (and No. 2 on Fortune’s World’s Greatest Leader list), who reportedly pressed Lagarde to run for the job.

顯然，德國總理安吉拉o默克爾就是這樣的一位支持者（默克爾在《財富》全球50爲領導力榜樣榜單中排名第二）。報道稱，她力推拉加德競爭這個職位。

The path to the position is hardly straightforward. Merkel raised the matter with French President Francois Hollande, who generally speaking would be the one to put Lagarde forward as a candidate—something Hollande, who is loathe to lose a compatriot at the powerful IMF, is unlikely to do. So, technically, for Lagarde to be considered, she would likely have to be nominated by one or another pan-European political parties.

通往這個職位的道路並非沒有曲折。默克爾與法國總統弗朗索瓦o奧朗德提起過這事，一般而言，應該由法國總統提名拉加德爲候選人。但奧朗德可能不會這麼做，他絕不想在有實權的IMF中失去一位親法者。因此，從技術層面，如果拉加德要加入候選人行列，她可能必須獲得一個泛歐政黨的提名。

Later this month, European leaders will choose from such candidates. As per the EU’s purportedly more democratic rules, they must factor into their decisions the results of May’s parliamentary election. The emergent nominee must then win majority approval of the European parliament.

本月晚些時候，歐洲領導人們將從這些候選人中做出選擇。按歐盟據稱更爲民主的條例，他們的最終決定必須考慮5月份的歐洲議會選舉結果。獲得提名的人選必須獲得歐洲議會多數通過。

May’s election results suggest that the favorite may well be Jean-Claude Juncker, a former prime minister of Luxembourg and an old-school European federalist, who Merkel initially backed. The United Kingdom’s David Cameron, however, has been openly opposed to Juncker. Hence, the backroom negotiations that led to the conversation between Merkel and Hollande, according to reports.

5月份的選舉結果顯示，最受歡迎的很可能是前盧森堡總理讓-克洛德o容克，也是默克爾起初支持的一位老派歐洲聯邦主義者。但英國的戴維o卡梅倫已經公開表示反對容克。因此，報道稱，種種幕後角力導致了默克爾與奧朗德之間的對話。

Getting involved in all that politicking merely to join ranks with a mélange of underweight Eurocrats, may sound like a step back for Lagarde, whose star has been rising on the international stage ever since she replaced the disgraced Dominique Strauss-Kahn as the “World’s Banker” in 2011. And, well, it probably is.

參與這些政治鬥爭，泯然於一羣無足輕重的歐洲官員之列，對於拉加德而言可能是一種倒退。自從2011年她取代斯文掃地的多米尼克o斯特勞斯o卡恩成爲“世界的銀行家”後，她就已經成了國際舞臺上冉冉升起的明星。嗯，可能就是這樣。

Indeed, Lagarde has said she is not interested in the presidency. Her current job, after all, affords her a platform from which she wields considerable influence in a global conversation on the world’s most pressing issues—from rising income inequality to banking reforms to climate change.

確實，拉加德已經表態，她對主席一職不感興趣。畢竟，她當前的職務爲她提供了一個很好的平臺，讓她可以就全球最緊迫的一些事務在國際對話中施加相當的影響力。這些事務涵蓋了從收入不平等加劇，到銀行改革，再到氣候變化的大量問題。

Still, one can’t blame Merkel for trying. The German Chancellor and many other top European leaders have no doubt been spooked by the dramatic gains made by anti-EU parties in late May’s elections. Lagarde, meanwhile, is regarded as a consensus-builder who can contend with the increasing dissatisfaction among EU member states—in three years Britain plans to hold a referendum on its membership—and bring positive change to the organization.

不過，人們也不能怪默克爾有這樣的想法。這位德國總理以及歐洲其他很多最高領導人們無疑都被5月底歐洲議會選舉中反歐盟黨派支持率的飆升給嚇壞了。與此同時，拉加德還被視爲共識締造者，她能夠應對歐盟成員國日益滋長的不滿情緒（英國計劃在3年內就歐盟成員身份舉行全民公投），同時給歐盟組織帶來積極的改變。

If for some reason the EU Presidency doesn’t work out, of course, there’s always the role of President of the European Council. Or President of the European Parliament. Chances are you don’t know who holds these grand offices either. But hey, we’ll give you a hint: One of them used to be a Prime Minister of Belgium.

當然，如果歐盟主席因爲某種原因不起作用，總還有歐洲理事會主席這個職位。再或者，還有歐洲議會主席。或許大家還不知道這些主席是誰。我們可以給你一點提示：他們中的一位曾經是比利時首相。（財富中文網）