南蘇丹內訌 危機加劇 石油供應擔憂

The crisis in South Sudan, which has left hundreds dead, has started to hit global oil supplies, compounding the effects of production losses in Nigeria and Libya and putting upwards pressure on oil prices.

已造成數百人死亡的南蘇丹危機開始衝擊全球石油供應。原本尼日利亞和利比亞減產，對油價產生上行壓力，現在這種壓力更大了。

Africa has replaced the Middle East as the focus of concern over global oil supplies due to re­cent disruptions in the three petroleum-rich countries. “People are expecting a shortage in supply,” Ali Naimi, the veteran Sau­di oil minister, said this weekend in an unusual warning.

由於這三個盛產石油的非洲國家近來產量降低，非洲已取代中東成爲全球石油供應領域引發擔憂的焦點地區。資深的沙特石油部長阿里•納伊米(Ali Naimi)上週末發出一次非同尋常的警告，稱“人們預計石油供應將出現短缺。”

Rebels yesterday captured the capital of South Sudan’s oil-rich Unity State, Bentiu, intensifying fears over the risks to the country’s oilfields.

昨日叛軍佔領了南蘇丹石油資源豐富的聯合州(Unity State)的首府本提烏(Bentiu)，令市場更加擔心該國油田面臨的風險。

Foreign oil companies operating in South Sudan have started to reduce production from some oilfields, a process that would take several days, industry executives said. Before the crisis started, the country pumped about 250,000 barrels a day.

行業高管表示，在南蘇丹經營業務的外國石油公司已開始降低一些油田的產量，這一過程要花上幾天時間。危機爆發之前，南蘇丹石油日產量爲25萬桶。

The executives, who refused to be named because of security concerns, said they could not quantify the output loss. Though this was still relatively small, they warned that escalation of the conflict could deal a damaging blow to output.

出於安全原因要求匿名的高管表示，他們無法給出具體的減產數據。儘管減產幅度相對很小，但他們警告稱，危機升級可能對產量構成很大沖擊。

“The loss will depend on what happens this week on the ground,” said an executive. “If the fighting continues near the fields, we will see more wells shut down; if both sides guarantee some security, the production may continue,” he added.

一位高管說：“減產幅度有多大，要看本週南蘇丹的局勢發展如何。”他補充道：“如果戰鬥在油田附近持續，那麼將有更多油井被關閉；如果雙方在一定程度上保障油田安全，那麼產量可能不會受到太大的影響。”

The crisis comes as the oil market also weathers the loss of about 350,000 b/d from Nigeria due to sabotage and theft, and at least 1.1m b/d from Libya because of fighting between Tripoli and local militias.

這場危機發生之際，石油市場已經在艱難應對供應的下降：尼日利亞由於破壞和盜竊每日減產約35萬桶，利比亞由於政府軍與叛軍之間的衝突每日至少減產110萬桶。

The cumulative loss of production in Africa is now hovering about 1.5m b/d – well above the total incremental oil production this year from the US shale revolution. Seith Kleiman, oil strategist at Citigroup in London, said that supply disruptions had underpinned oil prices throughout 2013: “The year is ending in familiar fashion.”

目前，非洲石油減產幅度在每日150萬桶附近徘徊，遠高於今年以來美國頁岩革命增加的總石油產量。花旗集團(Citigroup)駐倫敦的石油行業策略師塞思•克蘭曼(Seth Kleinman)表示，2013年全年，供應減少對油價構成了支撐：“今年底的油價行情跟往年相似。”

Oil prices are set to hit their third highest annual record in 2013, with Brent crude, the global benchmark, averaging $108.6 a barrel so far this year. The average is slightly lower than records set in 2012 and 2011 of $111 and $110, respectively.

今年迄今，全球油價基準——布倫特(Brent)原油價格平均價達到每桶108.6美元，這將使2013年成爲歷史上全球油價第三高的年份。上述平均油價略低於前兩次最高紀錄——2012年的每桶111美元和2011年的110美元。

The crisis in South Sudan showed little sign of receding at the weekend. US military aircraft were hit by gunfire as they tried to rescue stranded Americans.

上週末，南蘇丹危機未顯出絲毫減弱的跡象。美國軍機前往救援受困美國公民之時，遭到了地面火力的襲擊。