錫價今年漲50% 供需均存在擔憂

Tin, an often overlooked industrial metal, has risen almost 50 per cent this year, making it one of the top performing commodities.

錫價今年以來上漲近50%，使這種經常被忽視的工業金屬成爲表現最好的大宗商品之一。

For the past few years the price for the metal — used in electronics for soldering and to line steel cans — has been on a roller-coaster ride as supplies from important producers have waxed and waned.

錫被用於電子設備中的焊接和鐵罐內的電鍍層。近幾年，由於來自重要生產商的供應忽多忽少，這種金屬的價格像過山車那樣大起大落。

After falling to the lowest level since 2009 to $13,085 a tonne in January, tin is trading at $21,400 a tonne.

在今年1月跌至每噸13085美元的2009年以來最低點後，目前錫價已回升至每噸21400美元。

The metal started its descent in 2014 after supplies from Myanmar flooded the market. For much of 2015, prices hovered around a six-year low, prompting the largest smelters to pledge output cuts and ask Beijing to stockpile more.

在來自緬甸的大量供應流入市場後，這種金屬的價格在2014年開始下降。在2015年的大部分時間裏，錫價徘徊在六年低點，促使最大的幾家冶煉廠承諾減產，並請求北京方面增加儲備。

Declines reversed thanks to ore output falls from Indonesia, Peru and China itself.

由於印尼、祕魯和中國的錫礦石產量下降，錫價開始止跌回升。

Prices have rallied as inventory levels have fallen. “Visible” stocks held in London Metal Exchange or Shanghai Future Exchange warehouses are at their lowest since at least 2000, says the International Tin Research Institute, although it adds that there is a “high level of under-reported stocks in China”.

隨着庫存水平下降，錫價呈現漲勢。國際錫研究所(ITRI)表示，存放在倫敦金屬交易所(LME)或上海期貨交易所(Shanghai Futures Exchange)倉庫的“顯性”庫存處於至少自2000年以來最低水平，儘管該機構補充說，“中國存在較高水平的漏報庫存”。

The market has also been boosted by speculative activity in China. “We have to bear in mind always that the money flows, the investment funds, can be the determining factor in any metals price,” said Peter Kettle of the ITRI, speaking at its annual conference in Shanghai this week.

中國的投機活動也提振了市場。“我們必須始終牢記，資金流動、投資基金，這些可能成爲任何金屬價格的決定因素，”國際錫研究所的彼得.凱特(Peter Kettle)在該機構本週於上海舉行的年會上表示。

Further stock drops could trigger a rise in prices “well above equilibrium level”, he said.

他表示，庫存進一步下降可能推升價格至“遠高於均衡水平”。

The level of investor activity has been highlighted by trading on the futures market in Shanghai, which seems to have helped turn tin into the second most actively traded metal on the LME this year.

上海期貨市場的交易突顯了投資者活動的水平，這似乎已幫助錫成爲倫敦金屬交易所今年第二活躍的金屬。

At the conference, Li Gang, general manager of Yunnan Tin, which accounts for more than a quarter of global refined tin output, called for a “sustainable recovery” in the market, “rather than volatility caused by hot money or speculation in futures markets”.

在上述會議上，精煉錫產量佔全球四分之一以上的雲南錫業(Yunnan Tin)的總經理李剛呼籲引導市場實現“可持續復甦”，而不是由熱錢或期貨市場投機造成的波動。

The big concern for tin smelters is future supplies of ore. BMI Research is forecasting a supply shortfall of 9,400 tonnes in 2020 amid “depleting ore reserves”.

錫冶煉廠主要擔憂的是未來礦石供應狀況。BMI Research預測，隨着“礦石儲量逐漸枯竭”，2020年將出現9400噸的供應缺口。

Nearly 30 per cent of Chinese smelter capacity sits idle, a warning sign that high prices are likely to outrun downstream demand.

中國近30%的冶煉產能處於閒置狀態，這是一個警示跡象，表明當前的高價很可能跑在了下游需求的前面。