年十大預言
【英文原文】
Caveat Lector! Ten Predictions for 2010
I said it last year - and I'll say it again. There is only one activity more thankless than predicting the future - and that is publicly sharing your predictions.
Judge for yourself.
Meanwhile, it's onto 2010:
AIG CEO Robert Benmosche will be voted CEO of the Year.
Benmosche's abrasive morale-building exercise at AIG will take hold. The U.S. pay czar will give Benmosche leeway on pay. And a continuing rebound in the markets will give AIG a shot at repaying a good chunk of taxpayer money.
Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman will do an about-face on the bank's 'lower risk' corporate strategy.
About now, new CEO Gorman is probably learning that the meager profits of a retail brokerage can't pay for all those monster Wall Street bonuses. Expect Gorman to decide that Morgan Stanley should be a lot more like trader Goldman Sachs, after all.
Goldman Sachs will pay out big bonuses, be publicly vilified for a month and then go quietly back to printing profits.
The U.S. Congress and the media will go berserk when Goldman announces the size of its 2009 bonus pool. But the outrage will be brief and of little lasting consequence. The 'hate Goldman Sachs' story has been running just too long.
The GM turnaround will drag on. Forget a 2010 IPO.
GM is addicted to hefty sales incentives to move the cars and new CEO Ed Whitacre knows it. In 2010, he will slash incentives and end up abandoning GM's 20% U.S. market share target to find profitability. The search will prove elusive.
Fiat will seek to renegotiate the terms of its investment in Chrysler.
With Chrysler's market share in a death spiral, Fiat will finally grasp that this dud is exactly that - a dud. By autumn, Fiat will threaten to walk away from Chrysler unless the UAW and U.S. taxpayer offer up even more concessions.
Washington's twin-obsessions in election year 2010 will be to create jobs and cut the deficit. Little will be accomplished on either count.
Congress will authorize billions more in stimulus that won't be called 'stimulus' and won't actually create jobs. And Congress will convene a bi-partisan deficit cutting commission that won't do much either. Until investors stop buying US Treasurys, why should Congress change its ways?
The story of the year will be the New York City trial of Khalid Sheik Mohammed.
The OJ Simpson trial proved that nothing gets the masses as excited as murder and celebrity. Throw in Flight 253 and the ambitions of dozens of terrorists, trial lawyers, prosecutors, politicians and aggrieved 9-11 families and you have a story that will run and run.
Final predictions: Weak economic growth will continue into 2010. By spring, the Obama White House will be forced to the political center and U.S. businesses will finally believe in a modest recovery.
Here is my best guess - and that's all it is - for how the U.S. economy and markets will look in 2010:
2010 U.S. unemployment rate (average): 10.2%
2010 S&P 500 index (year-end): 1300
2010 10-year Treasury yield (year-end): 5.0%
【中文譯文】
我去年就說過、今年要再強調的一點是：唯一比預測未來更不招人待見的事情就是公開自己的預言。
判斷權在你手裏。
現在，我們來說說2010年。
美國國際集團(AIG)首席執行長本默切(Robert Benmosche)將當選年度CEO。
本默切重振公司士氣的艱苦努力將取得回報。美國“薪酬沙皇”將對他網開一面。而且各個市場的持續回暖將令公司有機會償還一大筆美國納稅人的救助資金。
摩根士丹利首席執行長戈爾曼(James Gorman)將給該行所謂“降低風險”的策略來個大掉頭。
眼下，這位大摩新掌門或許意識到了來自零售經紀業務的微薄盈利還不夠華爾街薪酬的血盆大口塞牙縫。預計戈爾曼會決定最終要向交易商高盛(Goldman Sachs)看齊。
高盛將大派紅包，飽受各方抨擊一個月，然後靜悄悄地幹回自己的老本行－－掙錢。
估計當高盛公佈自己2009年的獎金規模時，美國國會和媒體又會氣得抓狂。但這些怨氣終將只是過眼雲煙，改變不了什麼。所謂“高盛招人恨”的故事實在是拖得太長了。
通用汽車(GM)鹹魚翻身不易，2010年舉行首次公開募股一事就別惦記了。
通用汽車現在已經對揮淚大促銷上癮，新首席執行長惠塔克裏(Ed Whitacre)對此心知肚明。他將在2010年取消一些購買刺激措施，以放棄全美20%市場佔有率目標的方式來謀求重獲盈利能力。這番求索註定是前路艱難。
菲亞特(Fiat)試圖就投資克萊斯勒(Chrysler)條款重新談判。
眼見克萊斯勒的市場份額呈現死亡式螺旋下降，菲亞特會最終認識到這個不中用的公司還真就是不中用了。預計菲亞特會在8月前揚言徹底和克萊斯勒分道揚鑣，除非全美汽車工人聯合會(UAW)和美國納稅人作出更多讓步。
創造就業和削減赤字將成爲華盛頓在2010年選舉之年的孿生執念。不過，這兩樣一個都成不了現實。
國會將批准追加數十億美元的刺激資金，但不會冠以“刺激”之名，也不會真正創造什麼就業機會。國會將聯合兩黨成立一個削減赤字的委員會，但同樣發揮不了什麼作用。既然美國國債還有投資者買，國會爲什麼要改弦更張？
年度故事將是紐約對911主謀穆罕默德(Khalid Sheikh Mohammed)的審判。
當年辛普森(OJ Simpson)殺妻案的審判就說明，再也沒什麼能比謀殺和名人的組合更能引發公衆的集體亢奮了。再加上253號班機爆炸未遂案、幾十個恐怖分子、審判律師、公訴人、政客以及911遇難者家屬的激動情緒，足夠在你面前上演一出長得如同滔滔江水延綿不絕的連續劇。
最後的預言：疲軟的經濟增長將延續至2010年。在春天前，奧巴馬的白宮都不得不扮演美國政治中心的角色，美國商業界也終於開始相信會出現溫和復甦。
下面是我對2010年美國經濟以及市場前景最樂觀也是最終的猜測。
2010年美國平均失業率：10.2%。
2010年標準普爾500指數年終收盤報：1300點。
2010年10年期美國國債收益率年終收盤報：5.0%。
