中國電影票房持續火爆 China's booming box office

For all the talk of China’s economic problems — and mounting evidence of a slowing consumer sector — the box office is booming.

儘管大家都在談論中國的經濟問題——以及越來越多的消費部門放緩的證據——但中國的電影票房正呈現火爆之勢。

Hits such as Stephen Chow’s The Mermaid saw the country’s box office take in February surpass that of the North American market for the first month on record, putting China on track to become the world’s biggest box office as soon as 2017.

周星馳(Stephen Chow)導演的《美人魚》(The Mermaid)等賣座影片使中國2月份票房收入自有記錄以來首次超過北美市場，中國有望最早於2017年成爲世界上最大票房市場。

February’s record haul of Rmb6.9bn ($1.06bn) was inflated by the week-long Chinese new year holiday, when some other entertainment venues tend to close.

爲期一週的中國春節假期（其間一些其他的娛樂場所往往停業）帶動了2月創紀錄的69億元人民幣（合10.6億美元）的票房收入。

FT Confidential Research, a Financial Times research service, forecasts 2016’s total box office may grow 30 per cent to Rmb55bn, following 2015’s 48 per cent increase.

英國《金融時報》旗下研究服務部門《投資參考》(FT Confidential Research)預計，繼2015年增長48%之後，2016年中國票房總收入可能增長30%，至550億元人民幣。

Comparisons with the popularity of cinema in the US during the Great Depression are fatuous. Rather than reflecting the need for escape from harsh economic reality, the growth of the Chinese box office is a product of rising incomes and the expanding leisure pursuits of an urban consuming class. Besides, US cinema attendance actually dropped between 1929 and 1934, despite hefty admissions price cuts.

拿中國火爆的票房與美國大蕭條(Great Depression)時期的電影風靡進行比較是愚蠢的。中國電影票房增長是城市消費階層收入不斷提升以及休閒需求不斷擴大的結果，而非反映人們逃避嚴酷經濟現實的需要。此外，1929年至1934年間，美國的觀影人數實際上出現了下滑——儘管票價大幅下降。

Barring economic calamity, FT Confidential Research expects the box office boom to continue, even accounting for reported fiddling of audience figures by distributors. Our survey of 1,000 households across China found robust appetite for the movies, and a willingness to spend more on going to the cinema in the coming months.

除非出現經濟災難，《投資參考》預計，中國的票房火爆現象將延續下去，即便考慮到有報道稱發行方對觀影人數造假。我們對中國各地1000個家庭的調查發現，中國民衆對電影的需求強烈，而且願意在未來幾個月花更多錢去看電影。

This trend is being driven by disposable incomes, which have grown in urban areas at a compound annual growth rate of about 11 per cent over the past five years. It is helped along by the aggressive build-out of screens across all city tiers.

中國人的可支配收入水平推動了這一趨勢。過去5年，城市居民可支配收入的年均複合增長率爲11%左右。中國各線城市電影屏幕的快速增加也帶動了這一趨勢。

FTCR’s proprietary survey of urban residents found respondents made an average 10 visits to the cinema over the past 12 months. In the total population, Chinese people made 1.4 visits to the movies per person, according to the National Bureau of Statistics; the equivalent for the US and Canada combined was 3.7 in 2014, according to the Motion Picture Association of America.

《投資參考》對中國城市居民所做的專項調查發現，過去12個月，受訪者到影院觀影次數爲人均10次。中國國家統計局的數據顯示，按總人口算，中國民衆到影院觀影的次數爲人均1.4次；而根據美國電影協會(Motion Picture Association of America)數據，2014年，美國與加拿大合計人均到影院觀影次數爲3.7次。

Chinese movie-goers spend an average Rmb65 at the cinema, including Rmb35 on the ticket itself.

中國電影觀衆在影院的平均支出爲65元人民幣，其中包括35元人民幣的票價。

Respondents told FTCR that they would be willing to increase their per-visit spend by as much as 25 per cent in the coming 12 months, implying a greater appetite to buy the heavily-marked-up popcorn and soft drinks that are the hallmarks of cinema-going in more developed markets.

受訪者對《投資參考》表示，他們願意在未來12個月將單次觀影消費增加多達25%，這意味着他們將購買更多價格不菲的爆米花和軟飲料，這些都是更發達市場看電影時的標配。

Reports of “ghost screenings” — screenings through the night in empty cinemas to inflate the reported box office take — have circulated for months, and the government may finally be taking action. Industry insiders acknowledge these fraudulent activities, and that some of the reported audiences simply don’t exist. But they also say the sheer size of China’s box office, with its extraordinary growth rates, is very real.

關於“幽靈場次”——在沒有觀衆的電影院徹夜放映電影以虛增票房收入——的報道已經發酵了數月，政府最終可能會採取行動。業內人士承認存在這些欺騙性活動，一些所謂的觀衆其實根本不存在。但是他們也表示，增速驚人的中國票房規模千真萬確。