澳大利亞擔心中國債務問題會殃及本國

China’s Growing debt mountain poses a risk to Australia’s financial stability, a senior politician has warned,

一位資深政治人士警告稱，中國不斷增加的鉅額債務對澳大利亞的金融穩定構成了風險。

just weeks after the continent celebrated a quarter century of growth without a recession.

就在幾周之前，澳大利亞剛剛慶祝了自己長達四分之一個世紀的不間斷增長（其間未出現過一次衰退）。

China is Australia’s largest trading partner, accounting for A$150bn of two-way trade in 2015.

中國是澳大利亞的最大貿易伙伴，2015年澳大利亞對華進出口總額達到1500億澳元。

Beijing is also an important foreign investor in Australia, leaving Canberra potentially among the developed nations most exposed to a Chinese downturn.

中國還是澳大利亞重要的外商投資來源，這讓澳大利亞成爲受中國經濟下行影響最嚴重的發達國家之一。

China’s growing debt in its local government and state-owned enterprise sector were potential vulnerabilities that could end up having an impact on the continent, Scott Morrison, Australian treasurer, said in an interview with the Financial Times.

澳大利亞財長斯科特.莫里森（Scott Morrison，上圖）在接受英國《金融時報》採訪時表示，中國地方政府和國有企業部門不斷增加的債務是潛在的隱患，最終可能會對澳大利亞造成衝擊。

We are not rose-coloured-glasses optimists about China, Mr Morrison said.

我們不是戴着玫瑰色眼鏡看待中國的樂觀主義者，莫里森說，

We have a practical and real appreciation about what some of their vulnerabilities are.

我們對中國的一些隱患有切實和深入的瞭解。

Australia’s warning on Chinese debt follows concerns expressed by the International Monetary Fund and others, including billionaire George Soros,

在澳大利亞就中國債務發出警告之前，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和包括億萬富翁喬治.索羅斯(George Soros)在內的其他各方也就這個問題表示了擔憂。

who have warned that adverse shocks in China fuelled by its rising debt levels could spark contagion and hit countries with a high trade exposure to the country.

他們警告稱，債務水平不斷上升加劇了中國面臨的不利衝擊，這種衝擊可能導致問題擴散，令與中國貿易關係密切的國家遭受打擊。

Recent figures showing China’s economy grew 6.7 per cent in the three months to end September suggested there was no immediate risk, Mr Morrison said,

莫里森表示，近期數據顯示第三季度中國經濟增長了6.7%，這表明沒有迫在眉睫的風險。

adding that it was important for Canberra to consolidate its budget deficit in the next five years to build up resilience.

他補充道，對於澳大利亞而言，重要的是在未來五年裏整固預算赤字，以增強韌性。

I am not forecasting any change in China but we are very practically minded of the vulnerabilities and what that could convert into — but equally saying they have the capacity to manage it, he said.

我不是在預測中國會出現任何變化，但我們對中國的隱患以及這些隱患可能演變成的局面絕不掉以輕心——但平心而論，他們有能力搞定，他表示。

Mr Morrison said Australia needed to build up its economic resilience to ensure continued prosperity in the face of external shocks.

莫里森表示，澳大利亞需要增強其經濟韌性，以確保在面對外部衝擊時繼續保持繁榮。

He said the government would tackle its budget deficit and promote lower taxes in a bid to boost private demand and build up resilience.

他表示，政府將解決預算赤字，並推動減稅，以提振私人部門需求和增強韌性。

In a recent speech in Sydney Mr Morrison said it was also important to reinforce and build on the strength of Australia’s banking and financial sector.

莫里森最近在悉尼的一次演講中表示，加強和鞏固澳大利亞銀行和金融部門的實力，也是很重要的。

Australia’s economy is growing at an annual rate of 3.3 per cent of gross domestic product, among the highest in the developed world,

目前，澳大利亞國內生產總值(GDP)的年增長率爲3.3%，是發達世界中增長最快的經濟體之一。

and has notched up a remarkable quarter of a century of growth without a recession.

而且，澳大利亞實現了長達四分之一個世紀的不間斷增長（其間未發生一次衰退），令人矚目。

Surging exports to China have played a key role in enabling its economy to continue growing even during the financial crisis in 2008,

澳大利亞對華出口的不斷飆升，對澳經濟哪怕在2008年金融危機期間都得以持續增長起到了關鍵作用。

when many other countries faltered.

2008年金融危機期間，很多國家都陷入了低迷。

Growth has remained robust despite a slump in commodities prices over the past five years.

儘管過去五年大宗商品價格暴跌，但澳大利亞一直維持着強勁的增長。

A great strength of the Australian economy is that it is so flexible and adapts to the challenges we have, said Mr Morrison,

莫里森指出，澳大利亞的貿易條件指數（terms of trade，衡量一國出口對進口的相對價值）已經比巔峯時跌去逾30%。

who noted that the country’s terms of trade, a measure of the relative value of exports compared with imports, have fallen more than 30 per cent from their peak.

他表示：澳大利亞經濟的一大強項在於，它非常有彈性，能適應我們面臨的挑戰。

Mr Morrison also sounded a warning that record-low interest rates are proving counterproductive in Australia and elsewhere, while rejecting fears a housing bubble is developing in Sydney and Melbourne.

莫里森還警告稱，創紀錄的低利率在澳大利亞和其他地區事實上起到了反作用，同時他駁斥了關於悉尼和墨爾本正在形成房地產泡沫的擔憂。

Since the start of the year, house prices in Sydney and Melbourne have surged 13 per cent and 10 per cent respectively, according to data from Corelogic.

據Corelogic的數據顯示，自今年初以來，悉尼和墨爾本的房地產價格分別飆漲13%和10%。

There isn’t one housing market in Australia, there are hundreds of housing markets and to make generalisations is dangerous.

澳大利亞不止有一個房地產市場，這裏有成百上千個房地產市場，一概而論是危險的。

It would be a mistake to think those [Sydney and Melbourne] were not sound, he said.

認爲那些市場（悉尼和墨爾本）不健康是錯誤的，他稱，

It is hard to make an argument that where house prices are is a function of speculative, finance-driven investment.

這些地方的房價是健康的，說這些地方的房價是被融資驅動的投機活動擡高的很難站得住腳。

What that means is the housing debt is underpinned by real asset values.

我這樣說的意思是，房地產債務是有實際資產價值作支撐的。

However, he said there are real housing affordability challenges in Australia for those people seeking to get on to the housing ladder.

然而，他表示，目前澳大利亞的房價確實讓那些想要購房的無房者難以承受。

He said increases in housing supply over coming years would see price growth moderate.

他稱，未來幾年住房供應增加將讓房價上漲降溫。

Mr Morrison signalled he did not feel that Australian interest rates should be cut beyond their current record low level of 1.5 per cent.

莫里森表示，他不認爲澳大利亞應該進一步削減利率——目前的1.5%已經是創紀錄低點。

Monetary policy has exhausted its influence, he said.

貨幣政策的作用已經發揮到頭了，他稱，

Lower rates have led people to save more, to pay down and offset their debts, rather than necessarily going out and spending in the economy, he said.

降息已經導致人們爲償還和抵消債務而增加儲蓄，而不是出去進行必要的支出。

As that has increased over time, the impact of interest rate cuts has on each occasion eroded.

隨着這種情況逐漸加劇，降息的效果一次不如一次。

Mr Morrison said loosening monetary policy on a global scale was only bringing forward demand while the real challenge for advanced economies is to facilitate increased private demand.

莫里森稱，全球範圍內的貨幣政策放鬆只是把需求提前，而發達經濟體面臨的現實挑戰是促進私人部門需求提高。

That is why we are so keen on tax arrangements that support investment, he said.

這正是我們急切地想要推出支持投資的稅務安排的原因，他表示。

Mr Morrison’s plan to slash corporate tax rates in Australia from 30 to 25 per cent over the next 10 years is likely to be blocked by parliament.

莫里森計劃在未來10年將澳大利亞的企業所得稅率從30%降至25%，但該計劃可能會被議會否決。