中國擴大天然氣供應是多贏戰略

If there is an energy transition away from fossil fuels under way, it has so far moved painfully slowly.

如果遠離化石燃料的能源轉型正在進行中的話，那麼迄今轉型進展極其緩慢。

The share of renewables and nuclear power in the world’s energy mix rose to a new high of 13.7 per cent last year, according to the latest BP Statistical Review of World Energy. That might sound encouraging, until you consider that it was 13.1 per cent in 1995.

英國石油公司(BP)最新一版《世界能源統計年鑑》(Statistical Review of World Energy)顯示，去年，可再生能源及核能在世界能源結構中的佔比上升至13.7%的新高。這聽起來或許令人振奮，直到你想起1995年該比例爲13.1%。

The projection from the International Energy Agency that by 2030 renewable energy could become the world’s largest source of electricity is a sign of its potential, but the slow pace of the shift away from fossil fuels is evidence of their compelling advantages in terms of cost and convenience.

國際能源署(IEA)預測，到2030年可再生能源或將成爲世界上最大的電力來源，這顯示出了其未來的潛力，但從化石燃料轉移的緩慢步伐，也表明了化石燃料在成本和便利上令人難以抗拒的優勢。

Tackling the threat of catastrophic climate change cannot rely on wind and solar power alone but requires multiple changes, including a shift within fossil fuels away from coal towards gas. China, the world’s largest energy user with 23 per cent of global use last year, will be critical in deciding whether those changes are made.

爲了應對災難性氣候變化的威脅，僅依靠風力和太陽能發電是不夠的，而是需要多種改變，包括在化石燃料內部從煤炭轉向天然氣。中國作爲世界上最大的能源消耗國（去年其能源使用量佔全球的23%），在這些改變能否發生上將起到重要決定作用。

There were positive signs last year in that global carbon dioxide emissions grew at one of the slowest rates in the past 15 years, according to BP, and China was a principal reason. Its emissions grew by just 0.9 per cent, well below the 10-year annual average of 9 per cent.

BP表示，去年出現了積極跡象——全球二氧化碳排放量的增速爲過去15年最低之一，而中國正是主要原因。中國二氧化碳排放量僅增長0.9%，遠低於過去10年平均9%的增速。

The slowdown in China’s economy and its shift away from construction and heavy manufacturing meant energy consumption grew by just 2.6 per cent, its slowest rate since 1998. At the same time, new nuclear plants and hydroelectric dams came on line, and hydro power generation was helped by higher rainfall. As a result, BP estimates China’s consumption of coal, the highest -emitting fuel, rose by just 0.1 per cent.

中國經濟增長放緩，以及經濟重心從建築業及重工業轉移，使其能源消耗量增長僅爲2.6%，達到自1998年以來的最慢增速。與此同時，新的核電站及水電站投產，而更高的降雨量則推動了水力發電。因此，BP預計中國的煤炭（碳排量最高的能源）消耗量增長僅爲0.1%。

A report last week from Fergus Green and Lord Nicholas Stern of the London School of Economics argued that China’s coal consumption had hit a plateau and “on the balance of possibilities” was on a declining trend. They said the country’s greenhouse gas emissions could peak in 2020-25, earlier than the government’s 2030 objective, and fall “at a rapid rate” thereafter.

倫敦政治經濟學院(London School of Economics)的弗格斯•格林(Fergus Green)及尼古拉斯•斯特恩爵士(Lord Nicholas Stern)在上週公佈的一份報告中認爲，中國的煤炭消耗量已經達到平穩階段，“綜合各種可能考慮”正處於下降趨勢。他們稱，中國的溫室氣體排放量或將在2020-25年達到頂峯，早於政府制定的2030年的目標，並將在此後“快速”下降。

That outcome is uncertain. With gross domestic product per capita about one quarter that of the US, China still has plenty of scope for further industrialisation. Alongside heavy investment in renewable and nuclear power, it is still building new coal plants, last year adding 36 gigawatts of capacity to the grid.

這種結果是不確定的。在人均國內生產總值(GDP)約爲美國的1/4的情況下，中國仍有大量空間推進工業化。在大舉投資可再生能源及核能的同時，中國仍然在建設新的燃煤電廠，去年新增了36千兆瓦裝機容量。

To reach the reductions in coal use that Mr Green and Lord Stern suggest are possible, China will need rapid growth not just in non-fossil fuels but also in natural gas, which creates only about half the carbon dioxide of coal when burnt for power. About 4 per cent of China’s power generation capacity is gas-fired today, but the government has set a target that use of the fuel should roughly double by 2020 to 10 per cent of energy consumption, from 5.6 per cent last year.

爲了達到格林和斯特恩爵士認爲可能的煤炭使用削減目標，中國不僅需要迅速增加對非化石燃料的使用，還需要增加使用天然氣（燃燒發電時產生的二氧化碳僅爲煤炭的一半左右）。如今中國約4%的發電裝機容量來自於燃氣發電，但政府已經制定了目標，要求到2020年天然氣的使用在能源消耗中的比例應該增加近一倍，由去年的5.6%上升至10%。

China’s moves to expand its gas supplies, both domestic and imported, have often met with suspicion in the US and the EU. Its efforts to exploit its vast shale gas reserves, supported by the US administration, have raised concerns about giving Chinese companies a boost in international competition. Import deals such as the agreements reached with Russia last year have been seen as attempts to extend geopolitical influence.

中國爲擴大國內及進口天然氣供應所採取的舉措，時常會招致美國和歐盟(EU)的懷疑。中國開採其龐大頁岩氣儲量的努力（得到了美國當局的支持），引起了人們對提升中國企業國際競爭力的擔憂。諸如去年中俄天然氣供應協議在內的進口協議，被視爲中國欲擴大地緣政治影響力的努力。

If the threat of global warming is to be kept acceptably low, however, curbing China’s coal consumption is the single most important step to take.

然而，如果全球變暖的威脅要維持在可接受的低水平，控制中國的煤炭消耗量便是要採取的最重要的一步。

Other countries should be supportive of China’s attempts to increase its gas supplies. In the long run, it will be in all of our interests.

其他國家應該支持中國爲增加天然氣供應所付出的努力。從長遠來看，這將符合所有人的利益。