虛報出口令中國貿易前景引發質疑

Inflated Chinese export data are back.

中國再度出現虛報出口數據現象。

The ruse of puffed-up export invoices to convert extra foreign currency into renminbi is on the rise again, casting doubt on recent strong export data.

虛報出口發票、以把更多外幣兌換成人民幣的手法再次盛行，令中國近來強勁的出口數據招致懷疑。

Chinese exports hit a high of $214bn in September, well ahead of forecasts. Growth of 15.3 per cent from a year earlier was also the swiftest pace in 20 months.

今年9月，中國出口額達到2140億美元，遠勝預期，同比增速達15.3%，也是20個月內最快的一次。

That looked like good news for an economy where fixed-asset investment, traditionally the biggest growth driver, is slowing on the back of a weak property market.

這對中國經濟來說似乎是好消息。在房地產市場疲弱的背景下，傳統上最強大的增長推動因素——固定資產投資已開始放緩。

But economists warn that true export demand may be weaker than meets the eye.

但經濟學家們警告稱，真實出口需求可能比人們眼中看到的更爲疲弱。

The gap between Chinese exports to Hong Kong and Hong Kong imports from China – theoretically two sides of the same coin and based on customs data from the two jurisdictions – rose sharply in September.

9月，中國內地對香港出口與香港從中國內地進口之間的差距大幅升高。在理論上，這兩者是同一枚硬幣的正反兩面，是基於兩地的海關數據得出的。

For analysts, that suggests Chinese exporters are again using phantom exports to Hong Kong as a means to skirt the country’s strict capital controls and bring in foreign money.

在分析師看來，這說明中國出口商又開始通過虛構對香港出口，來繞開該國嚴格的資本管制、把外國資金帶入境內。

“The apparent re-emergence of over-invoicing strengthens our view that China’s September export data do not herald strong sustained actual export growth,” wrote Louis Kujis, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland.

“虛構出口發票做法明顯再度增多，讓我們更堅定地認識到，中國9月的出口數據並不預示該國實際出口會保持強勁增速，”蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)首席經濟學家高路易(Louis Kuijs)寫道。

Inflated export invoices has long been an issue in China. The Chinese currency is freely convertible for trade purposes, but investment flows remain tightly controlled. The lure of higher interest rates, as well as a steadily rising currency, creates an incentive to circumvent these controls. Disguising hot money inflows as trade has long been the most common technique.

虛報出口發票是中國的一個老問題。中國貨幣僅在用於貿易時纔可以自由兌換，但用作投資時仍受到嚴格管制。人民幣利率更高且處於穩步升值通道，吸引一些人逃過這些管制，最常用的辦法就是把熱錢僞裝成出口收入、帶入中國境內。

Such activity died down earlier this year, as the central bank engineered a weakening of the Chinese currency and the foreign exchange regulator launched a crackdown on illicit flows

今年早些時候，中國央行策劃了一次人民幣貶值，外匯管理機構也發起了打擊非法資金流的行動，使得這一做法逐漸減少。

But the renminbi has come storming back in recent months, hitting an eight-month high on Wednesday. The world-beating performance of the Shanghai equity market in recent months has provided an additional enticement.

但近幾個月來，人民幣匯率有所反彈，週三曾創下8個月高點。近幾個月上海股市行情好過其它全球股市，也使人民幣產生了額外的吸引力。

Economists say that this time companies seem to be using new methods to skirt capital controls. Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics notes that Chinese imports also appeared inflated in September, judging by the gap between Chinese and South Korean data on Chinese imports from South Korea.

經濟學家表示，這一次，企業似乎開始用新辦法繞開資本管制。凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的朱利安•埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)指出，9月中國的進口額似乎也有虛報，從中韓兩國各自公佈的中國從韓國進口數據的差距中可以看出這一點。

“That both imports and exports surged in tandem suggests firms are ‘round-tripping’ – importing a good and then re-exporting it to a related party at a mark-up to bring money into the country,” Mr Evans-Pritchard wrote this week.

“中國進口與出口同時猛增，表明企業在使用‘往返套利’手法——即進口一種商品，然後標高價格、把它出口給一個關聯方，由此把資金帶入境內，”埃文斯-普里查德本週寫道。

“We … don’t have a strong explanation for why firms are going to the trouble of importing from Korea rather than Hong Kong. Our best guess is that, as authorities have cracked down on fake invoicing, firms have had to become more creative in how they game the system.”

“我們……對於企業爲何捨近求遠地從韓國而不是香港進口，找不到有說服力的理由。我們最合理的猜測是，由於當局一直打擊虛報出口發票，企業不得不在如何利用體制漏洞上變得更有想象力。”

Wang Tao of UBS estimates that after correcting for over-invoicing, trade growth in the third quarter was only 11 per cent, compared with 13 per cent growth shown in official Chinese data.

瑞銀(UBS)的汪濤估計，對發票虛報部分調整之後，中國三季度的貿易增幅僅爲11%，而不是官方數據中所顯示的13%。

That suggests that much like consumption, Chinese exports are in decent shape but will not be enough to arrest China’s investment-led slowdown.

這表明，跟消費大體相似，中國出口雖然不錯，但將不足以阻止中國投資導致的增長放緩趨勢。