布萊爾佈局中東治理諮詢業務

Tony Blair is looking to open an office in Abu Dhabi, the increasingly assertive oil-rich emirate, in an apparent bid to expand his role as a behind-the-scenes business and political broker in the Middle East.

英國前首相托尼•布萊爾(Tony Blair)正試圖在日益強硬的產油國首都阿布扎比(Abu Dhabi)設立辦事處，似乎打算藉此強化其中東政商兩界幕後經紀人的角色。

The former UK prime minister, whose reputation in the region remains controversial, is said to be very close to the Crown Prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, who shares his outspoken anti-Islamist views. “There is chemistry between him and Mohammed bin Zayed,” a Blair friend says.

目前，這位英國前首相在中東仍充滿爭議。據說他與阿布扎比王儲謝赫•穆罕默德•本•扎耶德•阿勒納赫揚(Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan)關係非常密切，後者與他持有同樣鮮明的反伊斯蘭主張。布萊爾的一位朋友表示：“他與穆罕默德•本•扎耶德之間意氣相投。”

Mr Blair, who has a business contract to advise Mubadala, one of the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth funds, also backs the anti-Islamist leaders in Egypt where three Al Jazeera journalists accused of backing the Muslim Brotherhood were on Monday sentenced to seven years in prison.

布萊爾持有一份爲穆巴達拉(Mubadala)提供諮詢服務的商業合同，穆巴達拉是阿布扎比的主權財富基金。此外，布萊爾還對埃及的反伊斯蘭領導人也十分支持。在埃及，三名半島電視臺(Al Jazeera)的記者曾在週一因被控支持穆斯林兄弟會(Muslim Brotherhood)而被判7年監禁。

People familiar with his work have told the Financial Times he has commissioned experts to write a report on the Brotherhood and the allegations by Egypt’s military leaders and its Gulf supporters that it is involved in terrorism.

熟悉布萊爾事務的知情人告訴英國《金融時報》，布萊爾曾指派專家就穆斯林兄弟會及其所受指控撰寫一份報告。埃及軍方領導人及其在海灣的支持者曾指控聲稱穆斯林兄弟會曾參與恐怖活動。

Mr Blair’s aides say the “briefing document” is for his personal use, while an Abu Dhabi spokesman insists it has not commissioned such a report. But people familiar with the briefing say it is being done on behalf of the UAE leadership.

布萊爾的助理表示，布萊爾只會把這一“簡報”用於個人目的，阿布扎比發言人也堅稱該國並未要求他人撰寫這一報告。不過，熟悉該簡報的人表示，該簡報就是代表阿聯酋官方完成的。

One aide insists Mr Blair is not seeking business contracts in the Middle East. While he has not yet signed on an office in Abu Dhabi, the aide says it would make sense to have a permanent presence in the UAE to service existing governance contracts, including with Kazakhstan and Romania.

一位布萊爾的助理堅稱，布萊爾並不是爲了達成中東的商業合同。該助理表示，儘管布萊爾目前還沒有在阿布扎比註冊辦事處，但對服務現有的治理合約（包括與哈薩克斯坦和羅馬尼亞簽訂的治理合約）來說，在阿聯酋擁有固定的辦事處是有好處的。

Other people familiar with Mr Blair’s plans, however, say he is looking to act as an intermediary between the oil-rich Gulf and other parts of the world. His most high- profile governance contract in the Middle East was helping to reform the Kuwaiti prime minister’s office in 2009, but the project was closed down in 2012.

然而，另一位熟悉布萊爾規劃的人表示，布萊爾正在尋求扮演海灣與世界其他地區中間人的角色。他在中東最高級別的治理合約是2009年的幫助科威特改革首相辦公室的合約，不過該項目在2012年被終止了。

“He sees a lot more business for Tony Blair Associates in this region,” says a person who knows Mr Blair well. This is the London-based commercial arm offering advice to companies and counsel on reform to governments.

一位熟悉布萊爾的人表示：“布萊爾在中東爲他的Tony Blair Associates(TBA)發現的商機要多多了。”這家總部駐倫敦的商業公司的業務一方面是爲企業提供諮詢，另一方面則是爲政府改革出謀劃策。

The shadow of the 2003 Iraq war, which Mr Blair championed, still looms over his post-prime ministerial life. Last week he was criticised from Right and Left in Britain after he defended the US-led invasion against charges it paved the way for the current convulsions in Iraq.

在布萊爾卸任首相之後的生涯中，2003年伊拉克戰爭的陰影依然若隱若現——儘管他贏得了這場戰爭。就在上週，由於爲美國領導的這一侵略行爲辯護，否認那次戰爭是伊拉克目前亂局的肇因，他同時遭到了英國右翼和左翼的批評。

The controversy has not prevented him from using his web of contacts to cement friendships in the region including in Abu Dhabi where relations with the UK have frayed over Britain’s less hostile stance towards regional Islamist parties.

這一爭議並未阻止他動用關係網鞏固與中東地區的友誼，這其中就包括了與英國關係不佳的阿布扎比。因英國對當地伊斯蘭政黨態度不夠強硬，阿布扎比與英國的關係變得緊張。

Like the government in Abu Dhabi, Mr Blair has spoken out in support of last year’s military coup in Egypt, which toppled an elected president from the Brotherhood, describing it in a recent speech as a “necessary rescue of a nation”.

和阿布扎比政府一樣，布萊爾去年也曾公開支持埃及軍事政變，他在最近一次講話中稱那次政變“是十分必要的一次救國行動”。發生在埃及的那次政變顛覆了來自穆斯林兄弟會的民選總統。

Mr Blair has long made clear he believes in taking sides in the Middle East and that he sees the region through the prism of a conflict between modernity and radical Islam. In his speech at Bloomberg in April, he said what was happening in the region represented “the biggest threat to global security in the early 21st century”.

長期以來，布萊爾始終明確他篤信對中東應持有一定立場，並表示他對中東的觀察視角基於現代性與激進伊斯蘭主義間的衝突。今年4月，在彭博社(Bloomberg)的一次演講中，他表示中東發生的事代表着“21世紀初全球安全的最大威脅”。

He also called for supporting governments in the Gulf – even though they are for the most part autocratic and intolerant of dissent. In Mr Blair’s view, however, these western allies are “promoting the values of religious tolerance and open, rule-based economies.”

他還提議要支持海灣國家的政府，即便這些政府大多是獨裁政府，且對異議者零容忍。不過，在布萊爾看來，這些西方國家的盟友“正在推行宗教寬容的價值觀，以及那種把經濟建立在規則和開放基礎上的價值觀”。

Since Egypt’s coup last year, the Brotherhood, an 80-year old organisation with followers across the region, has faced relentless repression.

隨着阿布扎比與英國的關係日益緊張，對阿聯酋來說，布萊爾已成爲日益重要的聯繫人。

People with knowledge of the report on the Brotherhood say Mr Blair is helping Abu Dhabi advise Egypt’s Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, the new president who led last year’s coup, on economic reform. Mr Blair held talks with Mr Sisi in January.

2011年阿拉伯之春之後，阿布扎比對於伊斯蘭政黨的掌權十分不安，還曾發表官方聲明指控穆斯林兄弟會試圖在阿聯酋招惹麻煩。另一方面，英國卻始終願意與中東民選政府打交道——不論該政府的政治取向如何。

“Abu Dhabi officials want Blair to help convince Sisi on economic reforms. Sisi can be impressed by Blair,” said one person familiar with the matter.

對此，阿布扎比曾通過商業和政治方面的壓力錶達他們的不快。

The Blair report is separate from a UK government inquiry into the Brotherhood, which was announced by David Cameron, the prime minister, in March. Western diplomats say the move followed Abu Dhabi pressure on London to take a tougher stance towards the Islamist group. The government probe is unlikely to recommend measures that will satisfy Abu Dhabi, such as a ban on the organisation.

今年初，英國曾爲三名Islah組織成員提供政治庇護，這令英國與阿聯酋的關係更加緊張，因爲阿聯酋政府曾宣佈該組織與穆斯林兄弟會有聯繫。

One diplomat familiar with Mr Blair’s report says it will be used to “inform” the British public and other western nations about the “dangers” of the Brotherhood.

據最近拜會過謝赫•穆罕默德的人說，他對英國政府“充滿”憤怒——這種狀況令布萊爾及其更爲討巧的態度愈發有價值。