Lex專欄: 印尼禁令將導致鎳價反彈

“Did you know that Indonesia is at a crossroads? It is!” So said Homer Simpson, flipping vacuously through the Economist. But this is no joke: a ban on exports of unprocessed ore in January really could put Indonesia’s economy in a tricky place. The ban, aimed at building a local processing industry, is a bad idea when foreign investors are already getting spooked. The rupiah fell by a fifth against the US dollar in 2013. And the Federal Reserve is tapering.

“你知道印尼正處於一個十字路口嗎？事實確實如此！”荷馬•辛普森(Homer Simpson)漫不經心地翻看着《經濟學人》(Economist)說道。但這並非玩笑：印尼自明年1月起禁止出口未經加工的鐵礦石，很有可能讓該國經濟陷入艱難境地。在外國投資者本已驚慌之際，印尼試圖依靠禁止出口發展國內冶煉業是一個糟糕的想法。2013年，印尼盧比兌美元匯率下跌20%，而美聯儲(Fed)正在逐步退出量化寬鬆政策。

The ban might seem like a terribly good idea to investors long nickel – the worst-performing base metal of 2013 because of excess supply. The nickel price, down by a fifth this year to $14,000 a tonne or so, is now below its marginal cost of production. Indonesia is the world’s biggest nickel producer. Time for a rebound on the back of the ban?

對做多鎳的投資者來說，這一禁令的出臺似乎構成了重大利好——由於供應過度，鎳成爲2013年表現最差的賤金屬。鎳價今年下跌20%至每噸1.4萬美元左右，目前已跌破其邊際生產成本。印尼是全球最大的鎳生產國。在禁令的支持下，鎳價反彈時機到了嗎？

Not quite. First, the ban’s actual hit to Indonesian production could be less than total if international miners exploit a loophole that lets them export ore if they smelt the stuff first. Both Rusal and Glencore have beaten a path to Jakarta with blueprints for smelters; they have more knowhow than locals. An ironic outcome, given the ban’s aims.

不一定。首先，該禁令可能實際上對印尼的產量不會造成太大影響。這裏有一個漏洞，國際礦商可以先在印尼國內冶煉鎳礦石，然後再出口。俄羅斯鋁業(Rusal)和嘉能可(Glencore)都帶着建造冶煉廠的藍圖拜訪了雅加達；它們的技術比印尼本土企業更先進。從禁令的目標來看，這種結果有些諷刺。

Second, the nickel business is still going through a structural shift to more capacity. Chinese production of nickel pig iron, a low-grade cheap alloy, has risen to a fifth of global nickel production from 5 per cent half a decade ago. Chinese smelters rely on Indonesian ore, but they have been stockpiling ahead of the ban. Deutsche Bank estimates that smelting and refining account for four-fifths of the income stream from nickel pig iron. Ninety per cent of the income from a metal such as copper, by contrast, goes to its miners.

其次，鎳企業仍在轉向結構性產能過剩。中國鎳生鐵（一種低品級的廉價合金）佔全球鎳產量的比例已從5年前的5%升至20%。中國冶煉商依賴印尼的鎳礦石，但它們一直在禁令發佈前囤積礦石。德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)估計，冶煉和精煉佔到鎳生鐵收入流的80%。相比之下，礦商可以拿到銅等金屬總收入的90%。

Beyond the Indonesian ban, investors long nickel face their metal more or less turning into aluminium, which has similar low barriers to entry – and where prices are staying low. D’oh!

除了印尼禁令以外，做多鎳的投資者還或多或少面臨鎳價行情類似鋁的局面。鋁的進入門檻同樣很低，而且價格一直保持低位。這下可慘了！