Lex專欄:神華能源誘人嗎

A healthy canary meant a healthy mine in the old days. Strong 2016 results from China Shenhua Energy might equally suggest the country’s coal industry is in good shape. The largest-listed coal supplier by sales registered its first net proFit growth in four years. On Monday, the shares rose as much as 20 per cent on news of a special dividend. The euphoria may not last.

一隻健康的金絲雀在過去意味着一座富礦。中國神華能源(China Shenhua Energy) 2016年的強勁業績可能同樣表明中國煤炭行業狀況良好。按銷售額計算爲最大上市煤炭供應商的神華能源4年來首次實現淨利潤增長。週一，其派發特別股息的消息使股價飆漲，最多達20%。這種欣快感可能不會持續。

As with many industrial groups, Shenhua’s recovery has been state led. Last year, in order to improve coal prices and lighten debt servicing burdens on producers, regulators restricted production. The measure was successful — too much so, in fact. From first half lows, coal prices nearly doubled to November highs. Fretting over soaring prices and potential winter shortages, regulators relaxed output curbs. Prices eased until reports of new restrictions last month.

與許多工業集團一樣，神華的復甦是由國家主導的。去年，爲了支持煤炭價格和減輕生產企業的償債負擔，監管機構限制了生產。這一措施是成功的，事實上過於成功了。從上半年的低點至11月的高點，煤炭價格近乎翻番。由於擔憂價格飆升和冬季出現短缺，監管機構放鬆了生產限制。煤價隨即下降——直到上月有關新限制措施的消息出爐。

This flip-flopping is typical of China’s government and reflects prevailing policy skews. Higher prices may appear good for ailing coal miners but they do not function in isolation. The knock-on effects for energy supply and pricing are politically awkward.

這種翻轉是中國政府部門的典型特徵，反映當前的政策側重點。較高的價格可能對經營不佳的煤礦企業有利，但它們並不孤立發揮作用。在能源供應和定價方面產生的連鎖效應在政治上是尷尬的。

In any event, the supply side tinkering is insufficient to support coal prices in the long run. Fitch Ratings notes that in the first eight months of 2016, 152m tonnes of excess coal capacity were cut, compared with 800m tonnes under construction and another 600m tonnes seeking approval. Meanwhile, Carbon Tracker Initiative says the demand outlook is no healthier. Utilisation of China’s coal-fired energy capacity is only 50 per cent. Planned capacity increases of three quarters do not bode well as consumption growth slows from 10 to 3 per cent per year. More efficient generation from existing plants and increases in other sources of power add to the woe.

無論如何，供給側的小修小補不足以在長期支持煤炭價格。惠譽評級(Fitch Ratings)指出，2016年前8個月，1.5億噸過剩煤炭產能被淘汰，相比之下，8億噸煤炭產能正在建設中，還有另外6億噸產能正在等待審批。與此同時，碳追蹤計劃(Carbon Tracker Initiative)表示，需求前景也健康不到哪裏去。中國燃煤能源產能利用率僅爲50%。隨着消費增長從每年10%減緩至3%，計劃中產能增長四分之三不是一個好兆頭。現有電廠提高發電效率和其他發電來源增加發電量，都在加劇這種困境。

Shenhua’s shares may look cheap at 12 times 2018 forecast earnings. But this is pricey versus a five-year average of nine times. That canary may be chirping merrily now. Expect it to develop a nasty cough later on.

神華的股價看起來可能很便宜，只是2018年預測盈利的12倍，但與五年平均的9倍相比仍是偏貴的。這隻金絲雀現在可能在快樂地啁啾。預計它在未來某時會發出討厭的咳嗽吧。