Lex專欄 恆大增持萬科是否明智

Traders frequently lament the failed punt that becomes a long-term investment. China Evergrande might, then, be celebrating. The property developer turned conglomerate has made a great trade in China Vanke, its developer peer. The latter’s shares have been on a tear since early August when Evergrande revealed its interest. On Tuesday after Evergrande said it had lifted its stake to nearly 7 per cent, Vanke’s mainland-listed A shares rose a further tenth — the daily limit in Shanghai. On the first tranche alone, Evergrande has paper gains of $700m. Despite this success the deal smacks of poor governance.

交易員們常爲變成長期投資的失敗押注哀嘆。那麼，中國恆大集團(China Evergrande Group)可能正爲此慶祝。由地產開發商轉型爲綜合性集團的恆大，在同爲地產開發商的萬科(Vanke)身上做了一筆大交易。自8月初恆大披露其買入萬科股份以來，萬科的股價一直呈現上漲態勢。週二，在恆大宣佈增持萬科股份至近7%後，萬科A股更是上漲了10%，觸及漲停板。僅憑增持前的股份，恆大就獲得了7億美元的賬面收益。儘管取得了這樣的成功，這筆交易仍然帶有治理不善的味道。

Evergrande says that its Holding is purely an investment. But the company hardly has the spare cash to be pumping more than $2bn into a minority stake in a competitor. Its net debt of $29bn is almost 10 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation; that ebitda barely covers interest payments (which the company capitalises). S&P Global Ratings has said that should these metrics deteriorate, it may downgrade Evergrande’s B- debt rating, worsening its financing options.

恆大表示，其對萬科的持股純粹只是一項投資。但恆大幾乎勻不出逾20億美元的閒錢，來收購一個競爭對手的少數股權。恆大290億美元的淨負債幾乎是其息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的10倍；這樣的EBITDA將將夠償付利息（而這家公司還把這些利潤拿去投資了）。標普全球評級(S&P Global Ratings)已表示，如果恆大的這些指標惡化，可能會將該公司評級從目前的“B-”進一步下調，這將導致該公司的融資難度加大。

Evergrande’s allegiance is also unclear. Vanke is in the midst of a battle for control between major shareholder Baoneng, the insurance group, and Vanke’s management. The latter is backed by second-largest shareholder and unlisted state-owned enterprise, China Resources Holdings. In March, Vanke announced an asset purchase for shares that would install a new major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro, which is also supportive of management. That deal has yet to go ahead.

另外，人們也不清楚恆大到底站在哪邊。萬科的大股東、保險集團寶能(Baoneng)正與萬科管理層爭奪控制權。後者得到了萬科第二大股東、未上市的國企華潤集團(China Resources Holdings)的支持。3月，萬科宣佈了一筆以發股方式購買資產的交易，這筆交易如果完成，將使同樣支持萬科管理層的深圳地鐵(Shenzhen Metro)成爲萬科新的大股東。這筆交易目前還未進行。

By inserting itself into the mix, Evergrande confuses the Vanke issue still further. If Evergrande wants solo control, it has not got the firepower to win. If it hopes to have influence as kingmaker to either side in the tussle, its poor control of its finances make it a bad match for more disciplined Vanke.

恆大投身這個亂局，讓萬科控制權之爭更加撲朔迷離。如果恆大想的是獨自控制萬科，它並沒有取勝所需的財力。如果恆大想擁有能決定哪方將在這場爭鬥中勝出的影響力，它對自身財務狀況的糟糕管控，令它與一個紀律嚴明的萬科不太般配。

And if it really is just a trade, Evergrande’s shareholders did not need Evergrande to make it on their behalf.

另外，如果恆大對萬科的持股真的只是一筆交易，那麼恆大的股東們並不需要恆大代表他們做這筆交易。