Lex專欄 中國地產股或將以淚收場
Never let fundamentals get in the way of a good sentimental story. China’s property stocks should have one of the better stories around. Not only are interest rates coming down (China has cut rates twice since last November), on Monday evening Chinese regulators announced measures to support the sector. These included reducing mortgage downpayments and improving the tax environment for people who want to sell.
So one might expect that real estate stocks would respond positively. At first, indeed, they did. Major Hong Kong-listed property names, including China Overseas Land and Investment (COLI), China Resources Land and China Vanke (which announced soft results after the close on Monday) rallied as much as 8 per cent. They ended the day in the red.
所以人們可能以爲地產股會應聲上漲。一開始人們確實料中了。週二在香港股市，中國海外發展(COLI)、華潤置地(China Resources Land)以及萬科(Vanke)等龍頭地產股盤中漲幅最高達8%（其中萬科在週一收盤後公佈了不太理想的業績）。它們收盤時全部下跌。Despite a macro situation turning marginally more cheery, there are sound reasons for being bearish on the sector. Results for 2014 across more than 30 Hong Kong-listed property companies have been disappointing. Half missed internal revenue forecasts; in aggregate, sales and earnings per share fell short of market expectations by about 5 per cent. Margins were compressed as developers offloaded inventory. Barclays figures show that average selling prices have dropped nearly one-fifth in the year to date, yet inventory levels have risen from 9.5 to 14.1 months. Recently reported net debt to equity is 72 per cent compared with a five-year average of 48 per cent.
儘管宏觀形勢略微好轉，但有充分理由看淡房地產行業。30多家香港上市的地產公司2014年業績令人失望。半數公司沒達到內部收入預測，而從總體來看，銷售額和每股收益比市場預期約低了5%。隨着開發商急於將庫存脫手，利潤率受到擠壓。巴克萊(Barclays)的數據顯示，今年以來，房地產平均銷售價格下降了近五分之一，然而庫存水平從9.5個月上升到14.1個月。近期公佈的淨負債與股權比率爲72%，而5年平均值爲48%。
Still, analysts remain bullish. Across the sector only a handful of names have more recommendations to sell than buy, according to Bloomberg. This is justified by valuations. Barclays says that the stocks it covers are on an average discount to forecast net asset value of over one-third. CLSA puts its coverage list on discounts of between 12 per cent (COLI) and 76 per cent (COLI affiliate China Overseas Grand Oceans).
儘管如此，分析師們仍看多該版塊。根據彭博社(Bloomberg)，只有極少數地產股的“賣出建議”多於“買進建議”。而從估值來看，這是合理的。巴克萊表示，在其分析的地產股中，當前估值比預測資產淨值平均折讓三分之一以上。在里昂證券(CLSA)分析的股票中，折讓率最低的爲中國海外發展的12%，最高的爲中國海外宏洋(China Overseas Grand Oceans)的76%，後者是中國海外發展的子公司。Not everyone is buying this, however. Financial data analyst Markit lists Vanke and Evergrande as the top two shorts in Asia-Pacific last week. And Credit Suisse says that the easing measures are unlikely to have much impact: mortgage downpayments are often subsidised by developers desperate to realise sales.
但不是人人都抱持上述觀點。財務數據分析公司Markit上週將萬科和恆大(Evergrande)列爲亞太地區最宜沽空的頭兩隻股票。瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)表示，寬鬆政策可能不會帶來太大影響，原本急於賣出房子的開發商往往就會對房貸首付比例提供補貼。More time may be needed before a true turnround is clear. Meanwhile, it is worth bearing in mind that some sentimental stories end in tears.
也許需要更多時間才能看清房地產行業是否有真正起色。在此期間，一個值得銘記在心的忠告是，有些動人的故事最終以眼淚收場。
