達沃斯論壇與會者最擔心什麼

The $160bn Bridgewater hedge fund produced a chart last year about modern politics that was alarming for at least two reasons. First, the number crunching revealed that the proportion of votes garnered by populist, anti-establishment candidates in the west, such as US President Donald Trump, France’s Marine Le Pen and Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the UK Labour party, exploded from 7 per cent in 2010 to 35 per cent in 2017.

去年，規模爲1600億美元的對衝基金Bridgewater發佈了一張有關現代政治的圖表，這張圖表令人震驚的原因至少有兩個。首先，圖中數據顯示，西方民粹主義、反建制派候選人（例如美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)、法國的馬琳?勒龐(Marine Le Pen)以及英國工黨黨魁傑里米?科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)）獲得的投票比例從2010年的7%飆升至2017年的35%。

Second, the chart showed that the only time an increase of this magnitude occurred in recent memory was in the 1930s, when another financial crisis led to populism. That time, the swing prefigured the rise of nationalism and led to war. Could history repeat itself?

第二，這張圖表顯示，最近歷史上出現過的唯一一次這麼大幅度的數字飆升是在上世紀30年代，當時也是一場金融危機導致民粹主義出現。那時，這種變化預示着民族主義的崛起並導致戰爭。歷史是否會重演？

The global elite increasingly fears so. The World Economic Forum on Wednesday released its annual survey of the main concerns of its members.

全球精英越來越擔心歷史再次重演。世界經濟論壇(WEF)上週三公佈了對其成員的主要擔憂的年度調查結果。

Economic and financial risks used to be at the forefront of delegates’ minds. At the start of this decade, for example, issues such as banking crises, rising debt and slow growth topped the rankings.

經濟和金融風險曾經是世界經濟論壇代表們擔心的首要問題。例如，在本10年之初，銀行業危機、債務增加以及增長緩慢等問題排在前列。

Yet in 2018 those financial risks no longer appear on the dashboard; or certainly not close to the top. Instead, business executives, financial titans and political pundits fret about the issues that emphatically cannot be solved — or even modelled — by economists and financiers.

然而，2018年，這些金融風險不再出現在代表們的腦海裏；或者肯定不會排在前面。企業高管、金融巨擘和政治專家擔心的是那些經濟學家和金融家斷然無法解決（甚至構建模型）的問題。

WEF members fear that inequality is sparking dangerous social fractures and the populism revealed by the Bridgewater chart. They are deeply concerned about “extreme weather events”, “natural disasters” and “failure of climate change mitigation”.

世界經濟論壇成員擔心，不平等正引發危險的社會分裂以及Bridgewater那張圖表所揭示的民粹主義。讓他們深感擔憂的是“極端天氣事件”、“自然災害”和“氣候變化未能減緩”。

Yet the other threat cited is one that barely rated a few years ago: war. The biggest perceived danger of 2018, in terms of impact, is that somebody uses weapons of mass destruction. There is also rising concern about its digital proxy: cyber attacks.

然而，他們列出的另一項威脅在幾年前幾乎都沒有提到：戰爭。他們感到2018年最大的危險（從影響來看）是有人會使用大規模殺傷性武器。越來越多的人還擔心戰爭的數字代理：網絡攻擊。

Nearly all — 93 per cent — WEF members think that political and economic conflicts between countries will increase this year; 79 per cent believe there is a rising danger of military conflicts; and 78 per cent expect that large countries will be drawn into regional battles. Unsurprisingly, this leaves two-thirds of WEF delegates nursing the gloomy conclusion that the world will be riskier in 2018 than last year.

世界經濟論壇幾乎所有成員（93%）都認爲，今年，國家之間的政治和經濟衝突會增多：79%的人認爲，軍事衝突的風險日益增加，78%的人預測，大國將捲入地區戰爭。毫不令人意外的是，世界經濟論壇有三分之二的代表得出悲觀的結論：今年全球風險將高於去年。

It is entirely possible that this perception is wrong. One longstanding joke about the WEF, which will undoubtedly surface again at next week’s summit, is that investors should treat the Davos debate as a contra-indicator, as it usually tends to miss the important issues of the day.

這種看法完全有可能是錯誤的。長期以來有關世界經濟論壇的一個笑話（這次峯會上肯定會再次出現）是，投資者應把達沃斯辯論視爲“反指標”，因爲它往往會錯過當下的重要問題。

Although charts such as Bridgewater’s are fascinating, the 1930s is not the only decade that investors need to study. In the late 19th century (before electoral data could be compiled), the US also had a financial crisis that created populism; but that time it did not lead to war.

儘管Bridgewater等機構的圖表很有趣，但上世紀30年代並非投資者需要研究的唯一十年。19世紀末（在選舉數據可彙編之前），美國還遭遇過一場金融危機，催生了民粹主義；但那一次沒有導致戰爭。

Even if the WEF survey is crude, it does reflect a consensus towards more conflict that is already entrenched. There is a cloud of speculation in Washington that Mr Trump is considering unilateral action against North Korea, even as Saudi Arabia sucks America into a war with Iran, and tension escalates between China and the US.

即便世界經濟論壇的調查有些粗糙，但它確實反映出衝突增加的共識，這種共識已根深蒂固。華盛頓瀰漫着一種猜測，認爲特朗普正考慮對朝鮮發起單邊行動，即便同時沙特阿拉伯正把美國拉入與伊朗的戰爭，同時中國與美國的緊張關係加劇。

Next week, Mr Trump will travel to Davos and, undoubtedly, will try to extend some olive branches. But he will face deep scepticism: a Gallup poll published on Thursday shows that confidence in US leadership has collapsed around the world in the past year. Fractures abound.

特朗普本週將出席達沃斯論壇，他肯定會努力遞出幾枝橄欖枝。但他將面臨嚴重懷疑：上週四發表的一份蓋洛普(Gallup)調查顯示，過去一年全球對美國領導層的信心大幅下滑。到處是分裂。

Even if Davos can sometimes operate as an echo chamber, the WEF survey should give investors pause for thought, particularly when they look at the sky-high level of asset prices in western markets, despite low levels of volatility. It should also spur debate among investment committees and executives about whether they can create hedges to cope with this deeply fractured — and potentially dangerous — world.

即便達沃斯有時可以充當一個“迴音室”，但世界經濟論壇的這項調查應讓投資者停下來思考，尤其是在他們目睹西方市場資產價格高企（儘管波動性低）的情況下。它還應促使投資委員會和高管們就他們能否建立對衝應對這個嚴重分裂（還可能危險）的世界展開辯論。

Traditionally, the answer has been “no”. Investors are bad at preparing for tail risks; war is not an environmental danger that can be modelled. But it is a fair bet that 2018 will be a year when the financial industry scrambles to offer a plethora of Armageddon hedges; indeed, the sales pitch will undoubtedly start in Davos next week.

過去，答案一直是否定的。投資者不善於爲尾部風險做準備；戰爭並非可以建模的環境危險。但我們可以有把握地說，2018年，金融行業將爭相提供大量對衝“世界末日”的產品；實際上，這些產品的銷售宣傳肯定將在達沃斯開始。

We should hope — and pray — that this chatter helps to focus minds among the global elite in a way that at least delays the impending apocalypse.

我們應該希望和祈禱這種辯論有助於全球精英集中思想，至少推遲已在逼近的“世界末日”的到來。

In the meantime, keep a close eye on what Davos is not worrying about enough this year: that pesky matter of global finance, particularly in places such as China.

與此同時，密切關注達沃斯今年擔心不夠的事情吧——也就是全球金融這個大麻煩，尤其是在中國等地。