達沃斯 世界經濟處於十字路口

The world economy is precariously balanced between continued recovery and a third leg of the global financial crisis, according to leading economists attending the World Economic Forum in Davos.

正在達沃斯出席世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum)的一些頂尖經濟學家表示，世界經濟處於難以預料的十字路口，既有可能持續復甦，也有可能遭遇全球金融危機的第三階段。

The two sharply-contrasting outcomes highlight the uncertainties surrounding the global outlook in 2016 amid fears of a slowdown in China, plunging commodity prices and high levels of corporate US dollar denominated debt in emerging economies.

這兩種反差鮮明的展望突顯了圍繞2016年全球經濟前景的不確定性，其背景是人們擔心中國經濟增長放緩，大宗商品價格暴跌，以及新興經濟體企業的美元債務負擔過重。

Economists said the instability threatened to exacerbate the vulnerability of households and companies, which were already responding to disruptive technological changes.

經濟學家們表示，這種不穩定可能加劇已經在應對顛覆性技術變革的家庭和企業的脆弱性。

The dilemma facing economists was demonstrated in the International Monetary Fund’s latest update to its World Economic Outlook.

經濟學家面臨的這種兩難困境，在國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)最新版的《世界經濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)中表露無遺。

While its central forecast is relatively optimistic, with growth expected to pick up modestly in 2016 and 2017, it also reduced its growth forecasts and acknowledged severe downside risks.

儘管其核心預測相對樂觀（預計2016年和2017年經濟增長率將小幅回升），但《展望》也下調了經濟增長預測，並承認存在嚴重的下行風險。

Maurice Obstfeld, IMF chief economist, said financial markets, rocked by volatility since the beginning of the year, were “overreacting” but also acknowledged “there was a difficult adjustment ahead in emerging markets”.

IMF首席經濟學家莫里斯攠布斯特菲爾德(Maurice Obstfeld)表示，自年初以來受到波動性衝擊的金融市場有點“反應過度”，但他承認“新興市場接下來將面臨一段艱難的調整”。

Some of the big name economists in the Swiss Alps this week are notably pessimistic, thinking this adjustment will be more difficult than the IMF central forecast expects.

本週匯聚瑞士阿爾卑斯山的一些大牌經濟學家悲觀得令人矚目，他們認爲，本次調整的難度將大於IMF核心預測的預期。

Noting “the third leg of the debt supercycle does seem to be upon us”, Professor Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University said: “Anyone who is still telling the ‘This Time is Different’ story for China has their head in the sand.”

哈佛大學(Harvard University)教授肯尼思圠格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)指出，“債務超級週期的第三階段似乎已經降臨”。他說：“任何人如果還在講對中國來說‘這次不同’的故事，肯定是把他們的頭埋在沙子裏。”

Richard Baldwin, professor of international economics at the Graduate Institute, Geneva said: “There are a number of vulnerabilities that individually would suggest problems and slow downs, not a crisis with a capital ‘C’. But these vulnerabilities could merge into a new Crisis”.

日內瓦國際關係及發展研究生院(Graduate Institute, Geneva)國際經濟學教授理查德貟德溫(Richard Baldwin)表示：“當前有很多脆弱性，個別而言它們暗示着問題和放緩，而不是大寫的‘危機’。但這些脆弱性可能聚在一起，形成一場新的危機。”

According to Nobel laureate professor Michael Spence of the Stern School of Business, New York University: “It is a fragile and deteriorating situation globally with little in the way of effective counter measures.”

諾貝爾經濟學獎得主、紐約大學斯特恩商學院(Stern School of Business)教授邁克爾斯賓塞(Michael Spence)表示：“當前全球形勢脆弱且日益惡化，卻沒有什麼有效的應對措施。”

Professor Bob Shiller of Yale University, also a Nobel laureate, warned that the recent falls in financial markets had special significance.

同爲諾貝爾經濟學獎得主的耶魯大學(Yale University)教授鮑勃席勒(Bob Shiller)警告說，金融市場近期的下跌具有特別的重大意義。

“There is more than the usual salience to this event and...慍 substantial risk of further such drops,” he said.

“這一事件……以及進一步下滑的巨大風險，具有異乎尋常的顯著性，”他表示。

While recognising the possibility of something worse, an equal-sized group of economists take comfort from the still-healthy rate of Chinese growth. Expecting a further slowdown in the Chinese rate of expansion, Paul Sheard, chief economist of Standard & Poor’s, the rating agency, said an outcome of 6.3 per cent Chinese growth this year would still be positive.

與此同時，人數相仿的另一羣經濟學家儘管承認形勢有可能變得更糟，但他們對中國保持健康的經濟增速感到欣慰。評級機構標準普爾(Standard & Poor’s)的首席經濟學家保羅∠爾德(Paul Sheard)預期中國經濟擴張速度將進一步放緩，但表示，如果今年中國實現6.3%的增長，那仍將是積極的。

“Let’s not get carried away here,” Mr Sheard said. “6.3 per cent real GDP growth this year is the equivalent of about 14 per cent growth in 2009, in terms of the size of the increment to global GDP.”

“我們不要忘記一件事，”謝爾德表示。“就對全球GDP的增加而言，中國今年6.3%的實際GDP增長相當於2009年大約14%的增長。”

Another Nobel laureate, Professor Christopher Pissarides of the London School of Economics, said the fact that US interest rate rises had been telegraphed for so long should help.

另一位諾貝爾經濟學獎得主、倫敦政治經濟學院(London School of Economics)教授克里斯托弗皮薩里德斯(Christopher Pissarides)表示，美國很早就預報加息這一點應該有所幫助。

Meanwhile, China “is still growing reasonably well and the government seems prepared to help the readjustment to the slower growth rate”.

與此同時，中國“仍然保持不錯的增長，而且政府似乎準備在向較慢增速的調整中提供幫助”。

Professor Ian Golding of Oxford university, noted another reason not to expect a worldwide slide back into recession.

牛津大學(Oxford university)教授伊恩戈爾丁(Ian Golding)指出了不應預期全球重新陷入衰退的另一個理由。

“The world economy is now much more resilient than was the case in past decades, due to the number of growth engines. India is picking up, as China slows, and both continue to grow at rates which are unprecedented in the advanced economies,” he said.

“相比過去幾十年期間的情況，世界經濟如今具有高得多的韌性，原因在於增長引擎的數量。就在中國放緩的同時，印度正在加快增長，且兩國的增速都仍是發達經濟體聞所未聞的，”他說。

If the big picture for the global economy is teetering between divergent outcomes, households and companies are also struggling with the possibility of even faster technological change.

如果說全球經濟整體面臨截然不同的前景，那麼家庭和企業也在艱難應對技術變革進一步加快的可能性。

Professor Ned Phelps of Columbia University and another Nobel Prize winner, said: “Fears that new technologies may further upset advanced economics seem not yet to threaten business confidence, but they are a cause for worry.”

諾貝爾獎得主、哥倫比亞大學(Columbia University)教授內德菲爾普斯(Ned Phelps)表示：“有關新技術可能進一步打亂髮達經濟體的憂慮似乎還沒有影響商業信心，但這是一件令人擔心的事情。”