全球貿易將迎來第五年低速增長

The global economy will see its fifth consecutive year of below-par growth in international trade this year, marking its worst period since the 1980s, according to the World Trade Organisation.

據世界貿易組織(WTO)預測，今年全球經濟將遭遇連續第五年國際貿易增長低於趨勢線，這將是自上世紀80年代以來最糟糕的時期。

In forecasts released yesterday the WTO said it expected the volume of international trade to grow by just 2.8 per cent this year, in line with 2015. But it said the forecast was laden with downside risks and highlighted an unusual five-year run of trade growing both below 3 per cent and in line with the broader global economy.

在昨日發佈的預測中，WTO表示，預計今年國際貿易量將僅增長2.8%，與2015年的增幅相同。但該組織表示，這一預測充斥下行風險，並着重指出，貿易量增長連續五年低於3%水平、且與全球經濟整體增長大致同步的情況是不尋常的。

“Such a long, uninterrupted spell of slow but positive trade growth is unprecedented,” WTO economists wrote.

“這樣一段漫長、不間斷、緩慢但保持正數的貿易增長是前所未有的，”WTO的經濟學家們寫道。

Yesterday’s forecast marks the first time in recent years that the WTO has not predicted a bounce in global trade. It is also emblematic of broader anxieties about the global economy, with the International Monetary Fund widely expected to downgrade its 3.4 per cent forecast for global growth next week when central bankers and finance ministers go to Washington for the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank.

昨日的預測標誌着WTO近年來首次沒有預測全球貿易出現反彈。它也體現了各方對全球經濟的整體憂慮。目前人們普遍預期，下週各國央行行長和財長匯聚華盛頓出席國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和世界銀行(World Bank)春季會議時，IMF將下調其對今年全球經濟增長3.4%的預測。

To many economists the unusual patterns in international trade in recent years are just one example of how traditional economic relationships have been tested or broken since the 2008 global financial crisis.

對許多經濟學家來說，近年國際貿易的異常模式，只是2008年全球金融危機爆發以來傳統經貿關係受到考驗或者已經破裂的一個例子。

For most of the past three decades world trade has grown at twice the rate of global GDP as globalisation has accelerated thanks to the emergence of major players such as China and other factors like the plummeting cost of transporting goods.

過去30年的大部分時間裏，隨着全球化加快，世界貿易增長速度至少兩倍於全球GDP增速，得益於中國等貿易大國的崛起以及其它因素，如貨運成本大幅下降。

Global trade collapsed in 2009 as the effects of the crisis reverberated through the world economy, before bouncing back in 2010. But since then the volume of goods shipped has been growing only slowly and last year marked the first time since the crisis that it contracted in value terms, though that was partly thanks to a surge in the dollar and falling commodity prices.

隨着金融危機的餘波衝擊整個世界經濟，全球貿易曾在2009年崩潰，隨即在2010年出現反彈。但是，自那以來貨運量只是緩慢增長，而按價值計算，去年全球貿易出現金融危機以來首次萎縮，儘管這在一定程度上是由於美元飆升和大宗商品價格下跌。

The WTO said that by its calculations the value of world trade in current dollar terms last year fell by 13 per cent to $16.5tn from $19tn in 2014.

WTO稱，根據它的計算，去年世界貿易的總價值（按當前美元幣值計算）下降13%，從2014年的19萬億美元降至16.5萬億美元。

According to Robert Koopman, WTO chief economist, part of the problem has been a series of crises that has seen demand collapse in a succession of regions. Asian economies, for example, have helped prop up global trade since the 2008 crisis. But last year as China cooled its contribution fell markedly.

WTO首席經濟學家羅伯特•庫普曼(Robert Koopman)稱，一部分問題是一系列危機導致一個又一個地區需求崩潰。例如，亞洲經濟體在2008年爆發危機後幫助支撐了全球貿易。但隨着中國經濟降溫，去年亞洲的貢獻顯著下降。

Roberto Azevedo, the WTO’s director-general, said the recovery in trade was being hurt in part by a “creeping protectionism” as countries slowly erected new trade barriers.

WTO總幹事羅伯託•阿澤維多(Roberto Azevedo)表示，貿易復甦在一定程度上受到“爬行保護主義”的影響，各方在緩慢設置新的貿易壁壘。

But those barriers remain far less significant than ones set up in the wake of previous crises and Mr Koopman said the biggest factor in the slowdown was the stagnant demand exacerbated by the slow return of investment.

但是，與以往危機過後的局面相比，這些障礙仍然遠遠沒有那麼嚴重。庫普曼表示，貿易放緩的最大因素是需求停滯，而投資復甦緩慢加劇了問題。