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退歐擔憂致英鎊匯率跌破地板價

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退歐擔憂致英鎊匯率跌破地板價

Concern over Britain’s place in the EU has pushed the pound below $1.39 for the first time since 2009, a level associated with previous crises for the currency.

英國退歐引發的擔憂推動英鎊匯率跌至1英鎊兌1.39美元下方,這是2009年以來首次跌至這一水平,2009年那次與英鎊面臨的危機有關。

Sterling dropped as much as 1 per cent against the US dollar to an intraday low of $1.3876 on Wednesday — the lowest in seven years.

週三,英鎊兌美元一度下跌多達1%,盤中低點爲1英鎊兌1.3876美元,爲7年來的最低水平。

The $1.40 level has long been seen as a de facto floor for the pound, and one it has rarely traded under for an extended period since the mid-1980s.

長期以來,1英鎊兌1.40美元的關口一直被視作英鎊事實上的“地板價”。從1980年代中期以來的較長時間裏,英鎊匯率很少跌至這一關口下方。

The pound has faced sustained pressure throughout this week, as concerns have risen about the outcome of the upcoming referendum on the UK’s place in Europe following the decision of Boris Johnson, the London mayor, and Michael Gove, justice secretary, to support the Out campaign.

本週英鎊持續承壓。在倫敦市長鮑里斯•約翰遜(Boris Johnson)和英國司法大臣邁克爾•戈夫(Michael Gove)決定支持退歐之後,投資者對即將舉行的英國退歐公投的結果愈發感到擔憂。

This week’s decline has added to sterling’s status as the year’s worst-performing major currency against the dollar and follows fresh warnings about the potential economic consequences of a UK vote to exit the 28-nation bloc in June.

英鎊本週的下跌使得它成爲今年相對美元表現最差的主要貨幣,而下跌的原因是,各方就6月英國公投決定退歐的潛在經濟後果發出了新的警告。歐盟目前有28個成員國。

HSBC said the “uncertainty” following a vote to leave the EU could shave as much as 1.5 percentage points off UK growth by the end of next year, and cause inflation to rise.

匯豐(HSBC)表示,公投決定退歐後遭遇的“不確定性”,可能會將英國經濟到明年年底前的增長抹去1.5個百分點,並助長通脹。

“If sterling were to fall by around 15 per cent to 20 per cent, as our currency strategists predict, UK inflation could rise by up to 5 percentage points,” the bank said. “In the event of a vote for Brexit, concerns about deflation could swiftly give way to worries of stagflation.”

匯豐:“如果英鎊如我們外匯策略師所預計的那樣下跌15%至20%左右,英國的通脹率可能會上升多達5個百分點。如果公投結果贊成退歐,對通縮的擔憂可能很快會讓位於對滯漲的擔憂。”

The perceived increase to the chances of Brexit led to a 1.8 per cent fall for the pound against the dollar on Monday, its biggest one-day drop since May 2010. It is down more than 5.7 per cent in 2016.

由於投資者認爲英國退歐概率增加,英鎊兌美元匯率在週一下跌了1.8%,創2010年5月以來最大單日跌幅。2016年,英鎊兌美元已累計下跌逾5.7%。