加入SDR在短期內未必利好人民幣

China will join the exclusive club of hard currency issuing countries when its currency, the renminbi, becomes a fully fledged member of the IMF’s special drawing right basket on October 1.

今年10月1日，人民幣將成爲國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)特別提款權(SDR)貨幣籃子的正式成員，中國自此將加入硬通貨發行國的高級俱樂部。

But what does this really mean? And why do people think the move could be supportive for the renminbi? And more importantly, would it really?

但這究竟意味着什麼？人們爲什麼認爲此舉會對人民幣起到支撐作用？更重要的是，真的會這樣嗎？

Julian Evans-Pritchard and Mark Williams at Capital Economics make a strong argument on Monday that most likely it wouldn’t.

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的朱利安•埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchar)和馬克•威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)週一提出了一個強有力的論點，認爲情況很可能並非如此。

To the contrary, they believe the inclusion will mostly mean Chinese government bond yields are factored into the calculation of interest earned or paid on countries’ SDR imbalances (every country is given a quota of SDRs, and whether they are above or below that quota governs whether they pay or receive interest).

相反，他們認爲，最有可能的情況是，在計算SDR利率的時候將需要考慮中國國債收益率（每個成員國都被給予一個SDR配額，如果某一國持有的SDR超過其配額，超額部分可以獲得利息收入；反之，低於份額的部分就要支付利息）。

As the economists note, SDRs are treated as a potential claim on the underlying cash liquidity represented by the currencies that make up the basket.

正如經濟學家指出的，SDR被視作一種潛在權利，即成員國有權獲取SDR籃子中各種貨幣的基礎現金流動性。

In that context, the RMB’s inclusion only means IMF members will now have the option of selling SDRs in exchange for renminbi liquidity.

就此而言，人民幣被納入SDR只意味着IMF成員國有了出售SDR換取人民幣流動性的選擇權。

Their decision to engage in such a conversion, however, is entirely dependent on whether they are facing balance of payment strains in that underlying currency.

然而，它們是否決定要進行這樣的兌換，完全取決於它們在這種基礎貨幣方面是否存在國際收支壓力。

Thus far, however, this is unlikely because the renminbi simply isn’t used enough in international trade to create such constraints and is also arguably too controlled and restricted to be attractive for use in trade:

就目前來說，它們不太可能換取人民幣，因爲人民幣還沒有在國際貿易中廣泛使用到產生此類壓力，並且人民幣受管制過多，不利於吸引人們在貿易中使用人民幣。

If anything, the renminbi’s chances of being taken seriously as a reserve asset have gone backwards over the past year or so.

即便人民幣有可能被認真作爲一項儲備資產對待，這種可能性在過去一年左右的時間裏也被削弱了。

China’s leadership responded to concerns about capital outflows by making it harder to move capital abroad and to worries about the collapse of an equity bubble by suspending trading in many shares – in effect preventing owners of assets from selling them.

中國領導層通過使資本更難轉移至國外來回應對資本外流的擔憂，通過讓許多股票暫停交易——實際上是阻止資產所有人出售資產——來回應股市泡沫破裂的擔憂。

Managers of foreign exchange reserves will think twice before entrusting their country’s assets to policymakers who have shown themselves willing to steamroller the rights of investors when it suits them.

外匯儲備管理機構將會考慮再三，是否要將本國資產委託給有意碾壓投資者權利——只要對自己有利——的政策制定者。

As a consequence, Capital Economics notes the inclusion on October 1 could inadvertently be followed by a period of weakness for China’s currency because the impetus to keep it stable ahead of the inclusion will now be gone.

因此，凱投宏觀指出，人民幣在10月1日被納入SDR後可能會在無意之中開啓一段時期的疲弱，因爲在加入SDR前使人民幣保持穩定的動力將會消失。

Indeed, if the RMB really is overvalued vis-a-vis the natural flows of the market, it may just be that the PBoC is betting everything on SDR inclusion to overturn the dire state of capital flows — in the hope, of course, that most people don’t really understand how the SDR system works and might misinterpret it as intrinsically supportive.

實際上，如果說人民幣確實被高估的話（相對於市場自然流動的狀態下），那可能只是中國央行在孤注一擲地押注人民幣被納入SDR會扭轉資本流動的糟糕狀況——這無疑是在寄望於，大多數人並不真正明白SDR體系的運作方式、而誤以爲它在本質上會對人民幣起到支撐作用。

Evans-Pritchard and Williams remind us that capital outflows during the past couple of months have put increased pressure on the renminbi to depreciate and the PBoC has stepped up intervention so that the currency remains broadly stable both against the dollar and in trade-weighted terms.

埃文斯-普里查德和威廉姆斯提醒我們，過去數月的資本外流加大了人民幣貶值壓力，中國央行加大了干預，從而使得人民幣無論按兌美元計算還是按貿易加權計算，總體上依然保持穩定。

They conclude (their emphasis):

他們得出結論稱（他們強調稱）：

To be clear, we don’t expect a major shift in China’s exchange rate policy following SDR inclusion – a continued course of gradual and managed depreciation still looks most likely.

需要明確的是，我們預計中國匯率政策在人民幣被納入SDR後不會發生重大改變——看起來最有可能的仍然是人民幣繼續走有管理的漸進貶值之路。

Nonetheless, we think the potential upside to the currency from the SDR inclusion has been overstated and that, if anything, the short-run risks lie on the downside.

不過，我們認爲，加入SDR對人民幣的潛在利好被誇大，如果說有什麼影響的話，短期而言也偏向於負面影響。

Markets, however, are not always rational, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

然而，市場並非總是理性的，看看接下來會發生什麼情況將會非常有趣。