IMF接納人民幣加入SDR的前因後果
The International Monetary Fund is expected to admit China’s renminbi to its elite basket of reserve currencies today in what would be a major vote of confidence in Beijing’s economic reforms and its bid to internationalise its currency.
預計國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)今日將把中國的人民幣納入其精英儲備貨幣籃子。這將是對中國經濟改革和人民幣國際化努力的一張重大信心投票。
Confirming China’s place at the top table of the world’s economies, IMF shareholders are set to vote overwhelmingly to include the renminbi as the fifth member of the basket used to value the fund’s own de facto currency, the “special drawing right”.
IMF股東將以壓倒性多數投票支持讓人民幣成爲該組織貨幣籃子中的第五種貨幣，確認中國進入世界頂級經濟體行列。IMF貨幣籃子用於對其事實上的貨幣——特別提款權(SDR)——進行估值。
The move comes at a crucial time for China, which is managing a significant slowdown in growth and has suffered deep falls in financial markets as questions have mounted over the leadership in Beijing’s response and commitment to reforms.
此舉發生在對中國而言至關重要的時刻。中國正在應對增長顯著下滑，還遭受了金融市場大跌，外界對於中國領導層的對策及改革承諾的質疑有所加深。
But today’s vote by the IMF board will also come amid questions over just how much the IMF has been forced to bend its own rules to make the case for the renminbi and accommodate China at a sensitive time in the relationship between the fund and Beijing.
但是，IMF董事會今日的投票也會面臨其他質疑：IMF到底在多大程度上被迫變通自己的規則以支持納入人民幣，並在該組織與中國的關係敏感之際照顧中國？
“They are stretching their criteria,” said Edwin Truman, a former US Treasury official and veteran watcher of the IMF at the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics.
“他們在勉強應用自己的標準，”美國財政部前官員、目前任職於華盛頓的彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的資深IMF關注者埃德溫尠腧門(Edwin Truman)表示。
Eswar Prasad, a former head of the IMF’s China team, said that had the IMF review been applied to any other currency, the case would probably not have been made for inclusion in the SDR basket. Becoming part of the SDR basket is largely symbolic, but membership is limited to easily traded large currencies that are widely used by central banks to hold foreign exchange reserves.
IMF中國部前負責人埃斯瓦爾渠拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示，如果IMF的審議被應用於其他任何貨幣，那就很可能不會提出將該貨幣納入SDR貨幣籃子。進入SDR貨幣籃子在很大程度上只具有象徵意義，但成員資格通常僅限於那些被各國央行當作外匯儲備普遍持有的易於交易的主要貨幣。
“It is very clear that [IMF staff and management] were willing not to break the rules but to bend them,” Mr Prasad said. “Given how much the IMF needs China, they did not have much choice.” With China being the world’s largest economy, measured by purchasing power parity, the fund would be open to accusations of lacking global legitimacy without giving a leading role to Beijing.
“很明顯，（IMF官員及其管理層）願意不打破規則，而是作出變通，”普拉薩德說。“鑑於IMF那麼需要中國，他們沒有太多選擇。”由於中國已成爲世界最大經濟體（以購買力平價衡量），IMF如果不給予中國一個領導性角色，就容易面臨缺乏全球合法性的指責。
Several Western diplomats in Beijing have said the renminbi’s inclusion in the SDR basket was a heavily political decision and that the Chinese government had been very effective at lobbying countries to support the inclusion, regardless of whether the renminbi met the requirements.
多名駐北京的西方外交官表示，把人民幣納入SDR貨幣籃子在很大程度上是一個政治決定，中國政府在遊說各國支持人民幣被納入方面非常有效——無論人民幣是否達到要求。
However, the IMF’s management insists that its review of the case for including the renminbi was purely “technical” in nature and focused on practical issues of whether the renminbi could be used in IMF transactions with its members.
然而，IMF管理層堅稱，對於納入人民幣的審議是一個純粹的“技術性”問題，焦點是人民幣是否可被用於IMF與其成員國的交易的實際問題。
“There is no politics in this,” said a senior IMF official.
“這裏不存在政治因素，”IMF一名高級官員表示。
The IMF’s staff earlier this month recommended in a report to the fund’s board that the renminbi join the dollar, euro, UK pound and Japanese yen in the SDR basket as part of a regular five-yearly review.
本月早些時候，IMF工作人員在提交給IMF董事會的一份報告中建議，在五年一次的定期審議時，給予人民幣與美元、歐元、英鎊和日元相同的地位，將其納入SDR貨幣籃子。
The staff’s findings hinged on the renminbi meeting two criteria. The first was that China and the renminbi have a significant role in global trade, a bar which Beijing passed years ago. But the second — that the renminbi be both widely used and “freely usable” internationally — has proven more contentious.
IMF工作人員的結論取決於人民幣滿足了兩條標準。第一，中國和人民幣在全球貿易中具有重要影響，中國在多年前就跨過了這個門檻。但第二條標準——人民幣被廣泛使用而且在國際上“可自由使用”——具有更大的爭議。
