中國散戶熱衷期貨市場投機

China’s market regulator may have succeeded in taking much of the froth off the surging commodities markets last week, but the message is not filtering down to many dedicated retail traders.

中國市場監管機構上週或許已經將大部分泡沫擠出了價格飆漲的大宗商品市場，但這一信息並未傳遞到許多醉心投機的散戶交易者身上。

As Chinese markets reopened yesterday after the May Day holiday, a few dozen young traders in Shanghai crowded into a small room provided by a local brokerage. The mostly 20-something male traders, in jeans and T-shirts, were looking forward to another week of fevered risk taking in China’s hottest new casino.

隨着“五一”假期結束、中國期貨市場昨日重新開市，幾十名年輕的交易者擠進了上海本地一家經紀公司提供的一個小房間裏。這些大多20多歲、身穿牛仔褲、T恤衫的男性交易者，正期待在中國最火爆的“新賭場”內迎來瘋狂冒險的又一週。

“It’s better for futures traders to be young because they can learn faster,” said Zhang Jun, 26, who has been trading commodities on the Shanghai Futures Exchange for three years but has only recently begun to make any money. “This is not relevant to anything you study before you get here. I don’t know anyone who studied a relevant major,” said Mr Zhang, a mechanical engineer by training.

“期貨交易者最好要年輕的，因爲他們學得更快，”26歲的張軍（音譯）說，他已在上海期貨交易所(Shanghai Futures Exchange)從事了3年大宗商品交易，但直至最近纔開始賺到錢。“來這之前你學什麼都無所謂。我認識的交易者沒人學過相關專業，”機械工程專業出身的張軍說。

On April 29, the China Securities Regulatory Commission ordered the country’s three commodities futures exchanges to curb speculation. The exchanges had already taken steps in that direction, by increasing margin requirements and transaction fees while reducing trading hours.

4月29日，中國證監會要求國內三家商品期貨交易所抑制投機行爲。其實，這幾家交易所早已採取相關措施，調高了保證金及交易手續費，縮減了交易時間。

The measures appeared to be aimed primarily at institutional traders who have contributed to price surges for commodities ranging from steel to eggs, which have increased 50 per cent and 10 per cent respectively over recent months. Liu Shiyu, the CSRC’s new boss, wants to avoid the fate of his recently sacked predecessor, who last year presided over a boom and bust on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock bourses.

這些措施似乎主要是針對機構交易商，後者推動從鋼材到雞蛋等各種大宗商品價格飆升——最近幾個月鋼材和雞蛋的價格已分別上漲50%和10%。中國證監會新任主席劉士餘當然不希望重蹈最近遭解職的前任的命運——在後者執掌證監會期間，滬深兩市於去年經歷了暴漲和暴跌。

Poor economic data helped Mr Liu’s cause yesterday, with the price of the Shanghai exchange’s most popular steel rebar contract falling 4.52 per cent to Rmb2,451 a tonne ($378). Futures for iron ore, the key ingredient in steel production, also took a hit. The most actively traded contract on the Dalian Futures Exchange, which largely trades steel industry inputs, dropped 2.96 per cent to Rmb442.5 per tonne.

昨日，糟糕的經濟數據幫了劉士餘一把，上海期貨交易所最熱門的螺紋鋼期貨合約價格下跌4.52%，至每噸2451元人民幣（合378美元）。鐵礦石（鍊鋼的關鍵原料）期貨價格也遭遇打擊。大連商品交易所(Dalian Commodity Exchange)交易最活躍的鐵礦石期貨合約的價格下跌2.96%，至每噸442.5元人民幣。大連商品交易所大量交易鋼鐵行業原料。

At the peak of last month’s China commodities fever, the number of steel rebar contracts traded in Shanghai exceeded volumes for the world’s two most important crude oil benchmarks, Brent and West Texas Intermediate.

在上月中國大宗商品熱的“高燒”期，上海螺紋鋼期貨合約交易量超過了世界兩大最重要的原油基準合約——布倫特(Brent)與西得克薩斯中質原油(West Texas Intermediate)——的交易量。

Yesterday at the Shanghai brokerage, in the same building as the city’s futures exchange, Mr Zhang and his trader friends were back at work before 9am, buying and selling steel rebar, asphalt and copper futures contracts.

昨日，在這家與上海期貨交易所同處一棟大廈的期貨經紀公司，張軍和他的交易者朋友上午不到9點就回來開始工作，買賣螺紋鋼、瀝青以及銅期貨合約。

They could trade at home but choose not to because of China’s slow internet speeds, preferring the much faster systems available in brokerages’ trading rooms. For many retail investors, however, profits are elusive.

他們也可以在家交易，但由於中國網速慢，他們不會選擇在家，而是更喜歡到擁有快得多的系統的經紀公司交易室。然而，對於許多散戶投資者而言，利潤並非唾手可得。

“In the futures market it’s normal to earn nothing in the first year or two,” said Mr Zhang, a migrant from neighbouring Anhui province who said he had made only Rmb100,000 in three years of trading. “I know people who have given up in the first year because they earned nothing and others who are still hanging in there but have made no profit in four years.”

張軍表示：“在期貨市場，頭一兩年一分錢賺不到很正常。”張軍來自臨近的安徽省，他說自己從事期貨交易3年來只賺了10萬元人民幣。“我知道有人第一年就放棄了，因爲他們什麼都沒賺到，也有人仍在這裏打拼，但4年也沒賺到錢。”

Liu Xin, a 21-year-old apprentice trader, started in commodities only nine months ago. He said he was introduced to the trade by an uncle who buys, among other things, egg futures.

21歲的學徒交易者劉鑫（音譯）9個月前纔開始從事大宗商品交易。他說，自己是被叔叔介紹從事這一行的，他叔叔買賣包括雞蛋在內的期貨。

“My uncle has four screens on his desk,” Mr Liu said. “I’ve been coming here since August and only last month did I really start to have a feel for the market and start making money.”

“我叔叔桌子上有四個屏幕，”劉鑫說，“我去年8月就來了，直到上個月纔開始對期貨市場真正有點感覺，開始賺錢。”

None of the traders thought the CSRC’s recent efforts to rein in irrational exuberance on China’s commodities exchanges would affect them. “The exchange is trying to reduce the amount an individual can trade but I can open more accounts to solve the problem,” Mr Zhang said. “I can open accounts using my father or mother’s identity. A crackdown like that has little influence.”

這些交易者都認爲，中國證監會最近抑制中國大宗商品交易所內非理性過度投機的措施不會影響到他們。“交易所正設法降低個人可以交易的金額，但我可以通過開更多賬戶來解決這個問題，”張軍說，“我可以用父親或母親的身份開戶。這樣的整頓措施影響很小。”