中國應避免走日本老路 Five stars and falling stars

Fifteen years ago, I became mesmerised by the Four Seasons Hotel in Manhattan. That was partly because of architecture: its lobby, with lofty ceilings and magnificent pillars, is designed with the soaring ambition of an Egyptian pyramid or medieval cathedral.

15年前，我被曼哈頓的四季酒店(Four Seasons Hotel)迷住了。建築風格是一個原因：酒店大堂高聳的天花板和富麗堂皇的柱子，就像埃及金字塔或中世紀大教堂寓意着遠大的目標。

But the main reason for my fascination was that I was writing a book (Saving the Sun) about the rise and fall of the postwar Japanese economy, using one of its premier banks — Long Term Credit Bank, or “Shinsei” as it was later renamed — for the narrative structure.

但是，這家酒店讓我着迷的主要原因是，我當時正在寫一本關於戰後日本經濟崛起和衰落的書——《新泡沫經濟：日本銀行的崩潰與曙光》(Saving the Sun)。書中以一家日本頂尖銀行——長期信貸銀行（Long Term Credit Bank，後更名爲新生銀行(Shinsei)）——的故事作爲敘事主線。

One intriguing chapter in this saga concerns the fact that during the 1980s LTCB lent vast sums to a shadowy Japanese company called EIE to build that Four Seasons Hotel on 57th Street. Those majestic pillars, in other words, were a potent and costly symbol of Japan’s bubble-era desire to make a statement on the global stage.

這個長篇故事中有一章很有意思，講述了在上世紀80年代長期信貸銀行向一家神祕的日本公司EIE提供大筆貸款，用於在第57街建造四季酒店。換句話說，那些宏偉的柱子正是日本在泡沫經濟時代的抱負——渴望在國際舞臺上一展雄姿——的強有力而昂貴的象徵。

Inevitably, it ended messily: in 1990 the Japanese bubble burst, unleashing a financial crisis. The 57th Street hotel became a loss-making disaster, causing the EIE group to collapse under $6bn of debt, and LTCB to implode (it was then bought by American private equity investors).

結果卻不可避免地慘淡收場：1990年，日本泡沫破滅，金融危機爆發。57街的四季酒店成了災難性的虧損之源，導致EIE集團在60億美元債務的重壓下破產、長期信貸銀行崩潰（後來被美國私募投資者收購）。

Indeed, the only reason the hotel still stands as a symbol of New York luxury today is that Ty Warner, the US entrepreneur who made a fortune by inventing the Beanie Baby doll, subsequently snapped it up at a cut-rate price. And it is Warner’s Beanie Babies — not Hello Kitty dolls — that are being sold in its cavernous lobby.

誠然，這家酒店能作爲紐約奢靡生活的象徵屹立至今，只因美國企業家泰伊•華納(Ty Warner)——靠發明豆豆娃(Beanie Baby)玩偶而發家致富——隨後以低價收購了該酒店。如今在寬敞的酒店大堂出售的是華納的豆豆娃，而非日本的Hello Kitty。

Some readers may wonder why this peculiar little piece of Manhattan history matters; few of the tourists or power elite who flock there will be aware of it. But right now the story of EIE is a salutary one. This month, Wall Street is agog at the fact that Anbang, a Chinese insurance company, tried to purchase the Starwood Hotels group for an eye-popping $14bn. As it happens, this bid collapsed. But Anbang has already spent some $2bn to buy the Waldorf Astoria hotel and another $6.5bn on other hotels owned by Blackstone.

一些讀者可能感到奇怪，這段關於曼哈頓歷史的小插曲有什麼意義？蜂擁而來的遊客或權貴精英們沒多少人會知曉這段故事。但是，EIE的故事放在眼下有其實際意義。本月，中國安邦保險(Anbang)試圖以令人瞠目的140億美元高價收購喜達屋(Starwood Hotels)，讓華爾街情緒激昂。結果，這筆交易落空了。但是，安邦已經斥資約20億美元收購了華爾道夫酒店(Waldorf Astoria hotel)，並以65億美元從黑石(Blackstone)手中收購了多家酒店。

Anbang is not alone: so far this year Chinese companies have bid $100bn for overseas acquisitions, almost as much as they spent in all of 2015 (which was a record). And the fee-hungry American mergers and acquisition bankers who are eagerly arranging these deals say that the $100bn figure will double — if not treble or quadruple — over 2016 as a whole.

安邦並非個例：今年以來，中國企業已斥資約1000億美元進行海外收購，幾乎與2015年創紀錄的海外收購總額持平。同時，正在熱心安排這些交易、渴望佣金的美國併購銀行家表示，2016年全年中國海外併購額將是1000億美元的兩倍，甚至三倍、四倍。

This feels horribly familiar. Never mind the fact that Chinese companies such as Anbang, which was founded just 12 years ago, look almost as opaque as Japan’s EIE did three decades ago, with alarmingly complex corporate governance structures. What is also striking is the way that cash is being tossed around with such a lack of constraint.

這讓人有似曾相識的感覺。且不提安邦（創辦僅12年）等中國企業看起來就像30年前的EIE一樣不透明，公司治理結構複雜得令人擔憂。同樣令人震驚的是，這些企業使用資金的方式如此不受約束。

That reflects the fact that China is now grappling with the same problems that haunted Japan 40 years ago. In recent decades China has built an industrial powerhouse and exporting machine by keeping its financial system under tight state control, channelling the country’s savings to industry at the expense of consumers. This enabled it to “develop” (ie grow) brilliantly well in the late 20th century — just as similarly tight control helped Japan to rebuild its economy after the second world war. But now China, like Japan, has become a victim of its own success: its economy has matured so fast that it has outgrown its financial structures. Debt and cash are swirling around in China and cannot easily find a productive home — so they are pouring overseas instead.

這反映出，中國眼下正在應對40年前同樣困擾過日本的問題。近幾十年來，通過將金融體系置於政府嚴格管控之下，以犧牲消費者利益的方式引導國內儲蓄資金流入工業領域，中國發展起了強大的工業和出口行業。這使中國得以在20世紀末迅猛“發展”（即增長）——正如日本在二戰後藉助嚴格管控重振經濟一樣。但是眼下中國就像日本一樣，已經成了自身成功的受害者：經濟迅速成熟，金融體系的發展卻跟不上。債務和資金在中國四處打轉，很難找到有效的投資方式——因此正在流往海外。

Does this mean China is doomed to repeat the next chapter of that Japanese tale — namely, to suffer a humiliating financial crunch? Unsurprisingly, Chinese officials say no. And there are hints that they have learnt some of the lessons from Japan’s past. It is rumoured, for example, that the reason Anbang did not complete its Starwood deal was that the regulator intervened.

這是否意味着中國註定要重演日本故事的下一篇章——發生一場讓自己顏面盡失的金融危機？毫無意外，中國官員說不會。同時，有跡象表明，他們已經從日本的過去中吸取了某些教訓。例如，聽說安邦未完成喜達屋交易的原因是監管機構的干預。

But hubris has a nasty habit of breeding disaster, particularly when combined with oodles of cheap debt. (One oft-ignored point is that Chinese companies such as Anbang have expanded their leverage at startling speed recently.) If I had to make a bet, I’d wager that sooner or later some of these Chinese companies will indeed go bust, along with their lenders; and, inevitably, those trophy assets — such as hotels — will be resold again too.

但是，傲慢往往會催生災難，特別是在與大量廉價債務相伴的情況下。（有一點很容易被人們忽視，安邦等中國企業近年以驚人的速度提高了其槓桿水平。）如果非要打賭的話，我會押注遲早會有一些中國企業破產，連同借錢給它們的銀行一起；同時，那些炫耀性資產——比如酒店——也將不可避免地再次被轉賣。

So the next time a politician such as Donald Trump (or anyone else) rails against the Chinese “threat” to America, it is worth thinking about the saga of EIE, LTCB and the Four Seasons Hotel. China’s growth on the world stage has been impressive but its recent “success” in snapping up assets could end up hurting China more than the west.

所以，當下次再有像唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)——或者其他什麼人——之類的政客抱怨中國對美國構成的“威脅”時，人們應該想想EIE、長期信貸銀行和四季酒店的那段故事。中國在世界舞臺上的崛起令人印象深刻，但是中國近年在搶購資產方面的“成功”最終給自身造成的損害可能比對西方的損害更甚。

Maybe somebody should take Trump (or Sanders or Cruz) to that Four Seasons Hotel for lunch — and buy him a Beanie Baby doll as a memento.

或許應該有人請特朗普（或者桑德斯，或者科魯茲）去四季酒店吃頓午餐——送他一個豆豆娃作紀念品。